AU - Emerald - Race 3

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

6.4f

Class 3

Turf

GOOD 4

10.4K

VIEW

Verdict

TAPA KICK (2) showed good early dash and raced on the speed last start before fading to finish 3.5 lengths back in fourth over 7f at Longreach. Will go forward and is expected to be in the finish. STECARA (8) made progress last start to finish third over 7f at Injune. Looks well placed so expect another big run. MONDAY CHOICE (9) missed the frame two starts ago on the dirt at Longreach but followed that with a win there over 7f two weeks ago. Has never been out of the placings in four starts at this journey and shapes as a key contender. BIGCAT (1) showed improvement last start. Race fit now and is aided by the draw.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Third-up today. Resuming favourite, won by 1.1 len at Barcaldine Cl3-Sw May 19 over 6f in soft going defeating I'm Zac carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Last start 6th of 9 at Mackay Cl3-Sw on June 11 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Determination carrying 128lbs at $3. Genuine hope based on the win two back. 1st Pick 7 Smashing Rosie Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Toni Schofield J: Non Runner T: Toni Schofield	148	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming favourite, won by 1.1 len at Barcaldine Cl3-Sw May 19 over 6f in soft going defeating I'm Zac carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Last start 6th of 9 at Mackay Cl3-Sw on June 11 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Determination carrying 128lbs at $3. Genuine hope based on the win two back.
2	Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 11 at Longreach Cl3-Sw on June 15 over 7f, 3.5 len behind Monday Choice with 137lbs at $2.90. Before that 2nd of 8 at Blackall Cl3-Sw on April 18 over 7f, neck behind Inquisitive Legend carrying 137lbs at $4. Best form stacks up nicely and deserves another chance. 2nd Pick 2 Tapa Kick Jockey: Michael Heagney Trainer: Mark Oates J: Michael Heagney T: Mark Oates	128	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 11 at Longreach Cl3-Sw on June 15 over 7f, 3.5 len behind Monday Choice with 137lbs at $2.90. Before that 2nd of 8 at Blackall Cl3-Sw on April 18 over 7f, neck behind Inquisitive Legend carrying 137lbs at $4. Best form stacks up nicely and deserves another chance.
8	Last start 3rd of 7 at Injune Bm65 on June 13 over 7f, 0.9 len behind Calyx Rose with 130lbs at $7. Before that 7th of 9 at Tambo Bm60 on May 30 over 6f, 6 len behind I'm Zac with 132lbs at $3.50. Rates highly on best figures and should run well. 3rd Pick 8 Stecara Jockey: Paul Hamblin Trainer: Rebecca Kerwin J: Paul Hamblin T: Rebecca Kerwin	116	-	-	-	20%
Analysis Last start 3rd of 7 at Injune Bm65 on June 13 over 7f, 0.9 len behind Calyx Rose with 130lbs at $7. Before that 7th of 9 at Tambo Bm60 on May 30 over 6f, 6 len behind I'm Zac with 132lbs at $3.50. Rates highly on best figures and should run well.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.