AU - Eagle Farm - Race 3

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

11.9f

Unknown

Turf

SOFT 7

142.6K

VIEW

Verdict

The Waterhouse/Bott mares should be peaking for this. Leaning to BELLA MONTAGNA (13) who is probably the one with more upside. Made up a lot of ground to finish second last start over 1 5/16m at Gosford (metro). Won under 57kgs on a heavy track over this trip at Rosehill last prep. Biggest test to date but on the limit she is worth the gamble. ALALCANCE (3) tired late after a mid-race move last time out in the 1 ¼m Chairman's at Doomben. That was her first outing since the Group 1 Ranvet eight weeks earlier. Likes it wet so watch for a far more resilient effort here. Class runner MIDDLE EARTH (1) charged home from near the tail to take out the G3 Chairman's at Doomben recently. Good weight carrier who will have no issue with the extra 2f. ROYAL SUPREMACY (2) won the Metrop over this distance in the Spring and showed he was getting back to that form when third to Middle Earth last start. THEBUDGIESMUGLA (14) faces a big step up in grade but is progressing in good fashion.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
13	Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 13 at Randwick Bm78 on April 25 over 1m, long-neck behind Nobler with 127lbs at $21. Second run from a spell 4th of 16 at Gosford Bm78 on May 9 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Monopolistic carrying 132lbs at $9.50. Ready to put it all together third-up out to this trip. 1st Pick 13 Bella Montagna Jockey: Rachel King Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Rachel King T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	115	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 13 at Randwick Bm78 on April 25 over 1m, long-neck behind Nobler with 127lbs at $21. Second run from a spell 4th of 16 at Gosford Bm78 on May 9 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Monopolistic carrying 132lbs at $9.50. Ready to put it all together third-up out to this trip.
3	At the latest run 8th of 13 at Doomben in the G3 Chairman's Hcp on May 16 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Middle Earth carrying 129lbs at $22. The start before that ran last in a small field at Rosehill in the G1 Ranvet on March 21 over 1 ¼m, slow going 9 len behind Aeliana with 126lbs at $31. Peak run expected fourth-up out to this distance. 2nd Pick 3 Alalcance Jockey: Tim Clark Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Tim Clark T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	127	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis At the latest run 8th of 13 at Doomben in the G3 Chairman's Hcp on May 16 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Middle Earth carrying 129lbs at $22. The start before that ran last in a small field at Rosehill in the G1 Ranvet on March 21 over 1 ¼m, slow going 9 len behind Aeliana with 126lbs at $31. Peak run expected fourth-up out to this distance.
1	Last start won by 1.0 len at Doomben G3 Chairman's Hcp May 16 over 1 ¼m in soft going defeating Belvedere Boys with 133lbs at $6.25. The race before that 9th of 14 at Hawkesbury in the G3 Hawk Cup on May 2 over 1m, 2 len behind Churchill's Choice carrying 131lbs at $51. Comes into this in ordinary form. Back to his best last time and is a big chance once again. 3rd Pick 1 Middle Earth Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Non Runner T: Ciaron Maher	164	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Last start won by 1.0 len at Doomben G3 Chairman's Hcp May 16 over 1 ¼m in soft going defeating Belvedere Boys with 133lbs at $6.25. The race before that 9th of 14 at Hawkesbury in the G3 Hawk Cup on May 2 over 1m, 2 len behind Churchill's Choice carrying 131lbs at $51. Comes into this in ordinary form. Back to his best last time and is a big chance once again.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.