AU - Cairns - Race 7

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

14.7K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

HEIR JORDAN (4) has won two on the trot in weaker company, the latest over 1m at Ingham. Needs the step up in distance at this stage. Drops 4kgs after the claim which puts the hat trick well within reach. AMALFI AMORE (5) is a bit hot and cold. Scored over this distance at Innisfail two back then raced on the speed but folded up in the run home over 1 ¼m at Townsville last time. Major player if he brings his best form. SAVVY THINKER (8) backs up six days after showing pace before dropping out over 1 ?m at Mackay. Has raced once over this distance for a win. Deserves another chance. PREFER TO DANCE (7) has been struggling for a while but his best figures stack up nicely. Can fill a hole in the small field. ACCLIMATISE (3) next best but must be a risk at 1 5/16m.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Chasing a hat-trick. Most recently favourite, won by a nose at Ingham Bm60 July 11 over 1m defeating Mission House carrying 131lbs at $2.50. The start before that favourite, won by 3.5 len at Laura-Qld Bm70 June 27 over 7 ¼f defeating Choir Boy carrying 119lbs at $2. Racing extra well and looks the goods again. 1st Pick 4 Heir Jordan Jockey: Samantha Pointon Trainer: Alexander Malliff J: Samantha Pointon T: Alexander Malliff	122	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Most recently favourite, won by a nose at Ingham Bm60 July 11 over 1m defeating Mission House carrying 131lbs at $2.50. The start before that favourite, won by 3.5 len at Laura-Qld Bm70 June 27 over 7 ¼f defeating Choir Boy carrying 119lbs at $2. Racing extra well and looks the goods again.
5	Most recently couldn't go on with it, 9th of 11 at Townsville Hcp on July 5 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind John Joseph with 119lbs at $11. The race before that won by a head at Innisfail Bm65 June 20 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Eclipsion with 125lbs at $3.30. Mixes his form but looks well placed here and is expected to feature. 2nd Pick 5 Amalfi Amore Jockey: Lauren Guernier Trainer: Alexander Malliff J: Lauren Guernier T: Alexander Malliff	128	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Most recently couldn't go on with it, 9th of 11 at Townsville Hcp on July 5 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind John Joseph with 119lbs at $11. The race before that won by a head at Innisfail Bm65 June 20 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Eclipsion with 125lbs at $3.30. Mixes his form but looks well placed here and is expected to feature.
8	At the latest run failed to make an impression, 6th of 14 at Mackay 0 - 58 on July 17 over 1m, 6 len behind Yorokobi with 128lbs at $17. Before that raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 at Townsville Hcp on July 5 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind John Joseph with 121lbs at $21. Has ability and can bounce back. 3rd Pick 8 Savvy Thinker Jockey: Chelsea Jokic Trainer: Gary Dickson J: Chelsea Jokic T: Gary Dickson	91	-	-	-	8%
Analysis At the latest run failed to make an impression, 6th of 14 at Mackay 0 - 58 on July 17 over 1m, 6 len behind Yorokobi with 128lbs at $17. Before that raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 at Townsville Hcp on July 5 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind John Joseph with 121lbs at $21. Has ability and can bounce back.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.