AU - Belmont Park - Race 8

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

57.3K

VIEW

Verdict

THE CRIMSON PIRATE (7) returned in good order, missing narrowly over 7f in a good return. That's a nice platform for him to build on and things look to work out favourably for him here. Fiore reunites and with improvement in store, he can bounce back to winning ways. SUPERNATURAL (6) got a long way back last start but was good in defeat. finishing nicely out to the mile for the first time. She's likely to get back from the draw again, but she rates highly on her last start and a repeat of that effort will see her right in the finish. YES I KNOW (11) won well two back before a 0.9L defeat over 7f at this track last time out. Out to the mile again is no issue and CJp hops back on board. Watch for him flying late. ALL GRUNT (8) can improve third-up. EXCELTRAIN (3) is racing well without winning and can't be left out of calculations.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Second run back. First-up after five months 2nd of 8 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on August 15 over 7f, neck behind Charino with 122lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up won by 2.5 len in the LR Lex Piper Stakes at Ascot on February 28 over 1m defeating Aberdeen Flyer carrying 119lbs at $3.90. Returned in good order and looks primed to land the knockout blow. 1st Pick 7 The Crimson Pirate Jockey: Lucy Fiore Trainer: Daniel Morton J: Lucy Fiore T: Daniel Morton	185	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months 2nd of 8 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on August 15 over 7f, neck behind Charino with 122lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up won by 2.5 len in the LR Lex Piper Stakes at Ascot on February 28 over 1m defeating Aberdeen Flyer carrying 119lbs at $3.90. Returned in good order and looks primed to land the knockout blow.
6	Most recently 2nd of 11 in a Rtg 70+ at this track on August 8 over 1m, on a wet track, 1.75 len behind Lillian carrying 127lbs at $6.50. The run before that 10th of 15 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on July 25 over 7f, 4 len behind Zourun Run carrying 123lbs at $5. Bounced back last time and can go one better this time. 2nd Pick 6 Supernatural Jockey: Chanel Cooper Trainer: Adam Durrant J: Chanel Cooper T: Adam Durrant	109	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Most recently 2nd of 11 in a Rtg 70+ at this track on August 8 over 1m, on a wet track, 1.75 len behind Lillian carrying 127lbs at $6.50. The run before that 10th of 15 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on July 25 over 7f, 4 len behind Zourun Run carrying 123lbs at $5. Bounced back last time and can go one better this time.
11	Form hard to fault. At the latest run came home strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 8 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on August 15 over 7f, 0.9 len behind Charino with 119lbs at $2.70. The race before that favourite, won by a neck at this track on August 1 over 6f in soft going defeating God's Gate carrying 126lbs at $8.50. Recent form stacks up and he can play a leading role. 3rd Pick 11 Yes I Know Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter Trainer: Chris & Michael Gangemi J: Clint Johnston-Porter T: Chris & Michael Gangemi	118	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run came home strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 8 in a Rtg 72+ at this track on August 15 over 7f, 0.9 len behind Charino with 119lbs at $2.70. The race before that favourite, won by a neck at this track on August 1 over 6f in soft going defeating God's Gate carrying 126lbs at $8.50. Recent form stacks up and he can play a leading role.

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