AU - Belmont Park - Race 2

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

57.0K

VIEW

Verdict

EXCESS BAGGAGE (3) missed in a photo first-up before winning in a photo last start at this track and trip. Should be at her peak fitness now third-up and she still has plenty of upside. Can lob off the speed and come with a barnstorming finish once more. NICCIMOTA (1) was too good from up on the speed last start, working across from out wide and being too speedy. This shapes nicely again from a better draw this time and Cooper's claim is a bonus. Can bring up back-to-back wins. DAWN DANCER (8) comes here off a short freshen and a recent trial win. He went back-to-back before the break and looks primed on the back of that recent trial. He's a speedy customer who'll give a bold sight with no weight on his back. ETERNAL WINE (6) gets Pike on board now after finishing behind Niccimoto last time. Won't be far away. CANNYKEV (2) can resume on a positive note.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up 2nd of 13 in a Grad Hcp 60+ at this track on July 11 over 5f, nose behind Bonnie Lad carrying 121lbs at $14. Second-up was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a nose at this track on August 1 over 5f on a soft track defeating Girls Day Out with 119lbs at $7. Narrow winner last time but she's trending the right way and can repeat the dose. 1st Pick 3 Excess Baggage Jockey: Holly Watson Trainer: Luke Fernie J: Holly Watson T: Luke Fernie	145	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up 2nd of 13 in a Grad Hcp 60+ at this track on July 11 over 5f, nose behind Bonnie Lad carrying 121lbs at $14. Second-up was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by a nose at this track on August 1 over 5f on a soft track defeating Girls Day Out with 119lbs at $7. Narrow winner last time but she's trending the right way and can repeat the dose.
1	Second run back. First-up after three months raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 1.75 len at this track on August 8 over 5f on a heavy track defeating Eternal Wine carrying 125lbs at $7.50. Previously second-up 10th of 13 in a Grad Hcp 60+ at Ascot on January 17 over 5f, 4 len behind Santanova with 125lbs at $11. Back with a bang and she can go on with it now. 2nd Pick 1 Niccimota Jockey: Chanel Cooper Trainer: Jim P Taylor J: Chanel Cooper T: Jim P Taylor	163	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Second run back. First-up after three months raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 1.75 len at this track on August 8 over 5f on a heavy track defeating Eternal Wine carrying 125lbs at $7.50. Previously second-up 10th of 13 in a Grad Hcp 60+ at Ascot on January 17 over 5f, 4 len behind Santanova with 125lbs at $11. Back with a bang and she can go on with it now.
8	Chasing a hat-trick. Comes off a 42 day let-up. Most recently won by 2 len at this track on July 11 over 5f defeating Morning Thunder carrying 123lbs at $16. The race before that won by 1.0 len at Northam on July 9 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Delzee carrying 122lbs at $4. Aiming for the hat-trick and should get every chance. 3rd Pick 8 Dawn Dancer Jockey: Victoria Corver Trainer: Ryan Hill J: Victoria Corver T: Ryan Hill	78	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Comes off a 42 day let-up. Most recently won by 2 len at this track on July 11 over 5f defeating Morning Thunder carrying 123lbs at $16. The race before that won by 1.0 len at Northam on July 9 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Delzee carrying 122lbs at $4. Aiming for the hat-trick and should get every chance.

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