AU - Belmont Park - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

10.4f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

21.2K

VIEW

Verdict

MODELISTIC (7) has been finishing off nicely from miles back in his recent runs, but the last time he drew a decent gate he went close to winning in a similar race. Brad Parnham sticks with him here and the inside draw should see him settle closer. Makes plenty of appeal. CHEYNE BAY (1) is racing in good order, stepping out to 1 ?m last start and closing nicely in a CL3 event. This looks a little easier on paper and he can improve again getting out in distance today. Should be at peak fitness and another forward showing is on the cards. POPPY'S ROSES (11) jumped favourite last start in a 1 ¹/16m maiden at Bunbury and was beaten in a photo finish. The form out of that has been strong however and CJP sticking with her is a positive sign. Can improve again out in trip and she can shed the maiden tag. IRAYCHOUX (2) is better than we saw last time out and can bounce back dropping in grade. ANNIE WARBUCKS (6) is another who can bounce back.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	At the latest run got back early 8th of 16 at this track Rtg 54+ on February 11 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Zackariah Beau carrying 123lbs at $6.50. The start before that 6th of 13 at Ascot Rtg 52+ on January 28 over 1m, 1.4 len behind Glanced with 128lbs at $5.50. Draws much better here and she can return to her best form. 1st Pick 7 Modelistic Jockey: Brad Parnham Trainer: Neville Parnham J: Brad Parnham T: Neville Parnham	92	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis At the latest run got back early 8th of 16 at this track Rtg 54+ on February 11 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Zackariah Beau carrying 123lbs at $6.50. The start before that 6th of 13 at Ascot Rtg 52+ on January 28 over 1m, 1.4 len behind Glanced with 128lbs at $5.50. Draws much better here and she can return to her best form.
1	Last start made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 14 at Ascot Cl3 on February 15 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Lien Hyphen with 126lbs at $5.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Ascot Cl3 on January 28 over 1m, 3.5 len behind My Harv carrying 131lbs at $6.50. Can continue to improve with the rise in trip. 2nd Pick 1 Cheyne Bay Jockey: Holly Nottle Trainer: Adam Durrant J: Holly Nottle T: Adam Durrant	119	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Last start made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 14 at Ascot Cl3 on February 15 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Lien Hyphen with 126lbs at $5.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Ascot Cl3 on January 28 over 1m, 3.5 len behind My Harv carrying 131lbs at $6.50. Can continue to improve with the rise in trip.
11	At the latest run 2nd of 12 at Bunbury Mdn on February 12 over 1 ¹/16m, nose behind Pure Mac carrying 121lbs at $2.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Bunbury Mdn on January 26 over 7f, 4.5 len behind Barney Rommel carrying 120lbs at $10. Better run out in distance last start and she can go one better without surprising. 3rd Pick 11 Poppy's Roses Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter Trainer: Holly Taylor J: Clint Johnston-Porter T: Holly Taylor	89	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 12 at Bunbury Mdn on February 12 over 1 ¹/16m, nose behind Pure Mac carrying 121lbs at $2.50. The race before that 6th of 14 at Bunbury Mdn on January 26 over 7f, 4.5 len behind Barney Rommel carrying 120lbs at $10. Better run out in distance last start and she can go one better without surprising.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Silks

The colorful jacket and cap worn by a jockey which features the design of the owner.

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.