AU - Belmont Park - Race 5

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

15.8K

VIEW

Verdict

KERMELIA (9) resumed in good order over 7f and has been unlucky not to have broken through. Chris Parnham rides, and fitter, the step-up to the mile suits. HEWILLDOUS (3) drew wide and settled at the rear here second-up, and he impressed beaten just 1.8L over 7f. He can sit handier today and also shapes as a winning chance. CLASSIC TURN (16) trialled well and then turned in a solid effort at Pinjarra on debut. She can build on that but draws awkwardly again. ABSOLUTE WEAPON (11) is fast and returned to form, beaten a whisker at Narrogin over 1 ¹/16m. Needs some luck crossing over, but she's in light again and goes in at a big price. deserves consideration.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Second run back. First-up after seven months 4th of 12 at Pinjarra Mdn on February 23 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Fayola Baby with 123lbs at $18. Previously second-up ran last in a small field at Kalgoorlie Mdn on June 9 over 6f, slow going 8 len behind Elusive Dream carrying 123lbs at $12. Fitter and can break through. 1st Pick 9 Kermelia Jockey: Chris Parnham Trainer: Daniel & Ben Pearce J: Chris Parnham T: Daniel & Ben Pearce	144	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Second run back. First-up after seven months 4th of 12 at Pinjarra Mdn on February 23 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Fayola Baby with 123lbs at $18. Previously second-up ran last in a small field at Kalgoorlie Mdn on June 9 over 6f, slow going 8 len behind Elusive Dream carrying 123lbs at $12. Fitter and can break through.
3	Third-up today. First-up 4th of 13 at Ascot Mdn on February 3 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Eighty Mile Beach with 125lbs at $19. Second-up 4th of 13 at this track Mdn on February 19 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Superfluous carrying 126lbs at $15. Rates highly. The Maiden win looks imminent. 2nd Pick 3 Hewilldous Jockey: Laqdar Ramoly Trainer: Meryl Hayley J: Laqdar Ramoly T: Meryl Hayley	128	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 4th of 13 at Ascot Mdn on February 3 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Eighty Mile Beach with 125lbs at $19. Second-up 4th of 13 at this track Mdn on February 19 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Superfluous carrying 126lbs at $15. Rates highly. The Maiden win looks imminent.
11	At the latest run 2nd of 9 at Narrogin Mdn Hcp 46+ on March 3 over 1 ¹/16m, neck behind Keggs Later carrying 115lbs at $7. The race before that didn't do much in the run home, 11th of 16 at Pinjarra Mdn on February 23 over 1m, 9 len behind Machine Gun Gracie with 123lbs at $51. Thereabouts last time but unlikely to test the top ones. 3rd Pick 11 Absolute Weapon Jockey: Ava Catarino Trainer: Misty Bazeley J: Ava Catarino T: Misty Bazeley	66	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 9 at Narrogin Mdn Hcp 46+ on March 3 over 1 ¹/16m, neck behind Keggs Later carrying 115lbs at $7. The race before that didn't do much in the run home, 11th of 16 at Pinjarra Mdn on February 23 over 1m, 9 len behind Machine Gun Gracie with 123lbs at $51. Thereabouts last time but unlikely to test the top ones.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.