AU - Beaumont (Newcastle) - Race 5

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

6.7f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

18.0K

VIEW

Verdict

IVY DIVA (8) appreciated the class drop when she came from near last on the turn for a dominant victory over 6 ½f at Narromine from the low gate. Deserves her chance at this level and can get the job done again. EMPUSA (4) bounced off her two good trials with an eye-catching fourth over 6 ¼f at Newcastle. Returned good closing splits on that occasion and has genuine top-three claims. TOKYO STAR (3) is ready to peak fourth-up and has the speed to get across from the sticky barrier. Sat on the good tempo when a gritty fourth over 7f at Canberra. Capable of playing a leading role. MELLENCAMP (11) has a good third-up record and proven at this track. Comes out of a strong rating contest after finishing seventh over 6 ½f at Scone. Keep safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Last start won by 1.75 len at Narromine Bm58 December 2 over 6 ½f defeating Starlink carrying 126lbs at $6. The run before that got back early 10th of 14 at Scone Ctry Bm58 on November 18 over 6 ½f, 5.5 len behind Zucchero with 126lbs at $26. Returned to form and can go on with it from the good gate. 1st Pick 8 Ivy Diva Jockey: Reece Jones Trainer: Tim Mcintosh J: Reece Jones T: Tim Mcintosh	128	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Last start won by 1.75 len at Narromine Bm58 December 2 over 6 ½f defeating Starlink carrying 126lbs at $6. The run before that got back early 10th of 14 at Scone Ctry Bm58 on November 18 over 6 ½f, 5.5 len behind Zucchero with 126lbs at $26. Returned to form and can go on with it from the good gate.
4	Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 11 at Newcastle Prov Bm64 on November 20 over 6 ¼f, slow going 2 len behind Oui Oui Oui carrying 121lbs at $19. Previously second-up ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Wyong Mid Mdn on March 12 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, 0.7 len behind Piperita carrying 123lbs at $4.80. Strips fitter and good enough to overcome the wide gate. 2nd Pick 4 Empusa Jockey: Ashley Morgan Trainer: Nathan Doyle J: Ashley Morgan T: Nathan Doyle	139	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 11 at Newcastle Prov Bm64 on November 20 over 6 ¼f, slow going 2 len behind Oui Oui Oui carrying 121lbs at $19. Previously second-up ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Wyong Mid Mdn on March 12 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, 0.7 len behind Piperita carrying 123lbs at $4.80. Strips fitter and good enough to overcome the wide gate.
3	At the latest run 4th of 9 at Canberra Cl2 on December 5 over 7f, slow going 2 len behind Supairo with 128lbs at $6. The run before that from last on the turn 6th of 9 at Kembla Grange Prov Bm64 (62) on November 15 over 7f, 4 len behind Nantucket Island with 127lbs at $9. Set to peak fourth-up and goes well over this track and trip. 3rd Pick 3 Tokyo Star Jockey: Louis-Philippe Beuzelin Trainer: Fabio Martino J: Louis-Philippe Beuzelin T: Fabio Martino	117	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis At the latest run 4th of 9 at Canberra Cl2 on December 5 over 7f, slow going 2 len behind Supairo with 128lbs at $6. The run before that from last on the turn 6th of 9 at Kembla Grange Prov Bm64 (62) on November 15 over 7f, 4 len behind Nantucket Island with 127lbs at $9. Set to peak fourth-up and goes well over this track and trip.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.