AU - Armidale - Race 5

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

6.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

19.2K

VIEW

Verdict

TIME TO COMMIT (5) looks well placed after racing on the speed and fighting on strongly for third over 7f at Scone last start. This looks slightly easier and she can take this out. CHEATING LILIBET (6) has fought on for fifth at her past couple of starts and may be looking for more ground than 5f. She gets her chance to bounce back into the top 3 with the extra 1 ½f on offer here. Stick with her. TICKLE MY TOSEN (11) has been safely held in 2 runs since a break, finishing sixth at Kempsey last time out, but he should be nearing peak fitness now. He drops 10lbs, and is ready to put his best hoof forward in this. SURPASSER (2) won as the favourite at a recent Mendooran picnic meeting, and despite rising in weight, he can repeat the dose, especially with Braith Nock in the saddle. SET TO PROPHET (1) has been consistent without winning, settling well back before finishing fourth at Coffs Harbour over 6 ?f last week. Each way all day.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
5	Racing well recently. Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 9 in a Ctry Cl1 at Scone on September 1 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Street Force with 122lbs at $11. The run before that took up a position near the tail 2nd of 10 in a F&M Bm58 at Gunnedah on August 14 over 7f, on a slow track, long-neck behind Backhander with 128lbs at $6. One of the major players. 1st Pick 5 Time To Commit Jockey: Donovan Dillon Trainer: Tim Mcintosh J: Donovan Dillon T: Tim Mcintosh	122	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 9 in a Ctry Cl1 at Scone on September 1 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Street Force with 122lbs at $11. The run before that took up a position near the tail 2nd of 10 in a F&M Bm58 at Gunnedah on August 14 over 7f, on a slow track, long-neck behind Backhander with 128lbs at $6. One of the major players.
6	At the latest run 5th of 9 in a Ctry Bm58 at Grafton on September 7 over 5f, 3 len behind Dizzy Dee with 126lbs at $16. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 10 in a Cl1 at Tuncurry on August 24 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Issy's Star with 121lbs at $14. Looks hard to beat in this line up. 2nd Pick 6 Cheating Lilibet Jockey: Madeline Owen Trainer: Karen Owen J: Madeline Owen T: Karen Owen	82	-	-	-	9%
Analysis At the latest run 5th of 9 in a Ctry Bm58 at Grafton on September 7 over 5f, 3 len behind Dizzy Dee with 126lbs at $16. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 10 in a Cl1 at Tuncurry on August 24 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Issy's Star with 121lbs at $14. Looks hard to beat in this line up.
11	Third-up today. First-up got back early 6th of 10 in a Bm50 at Port Macquarie on August 22 over 6f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Aerofoil with 129lbs at $9. Second-up 6th of 8 in a Bm50 at Kempsey on September 5 over 7 ¼f, 5 len behind Jeunetos carrying 131lbs at $8.50. Profiles nicely. Finding it hard to break through but can play a major role in this suitable contest. 3rd Pick 11 Tickle My Tosen Jockey: Ben Looker Trainer: Colt Prosser J: Ben Looker T: Colt Prosser	72	-	-	-	6%
Analysis Third-up today. First-up got back early 6th of 10 in a Bm50 at Port Macquarie on August 22 over 6f, on heavy track, 5 len behind Aerofoil with 129lbs at $9. Second-up 6th of 8 in a Bm50 at Kempsey on September 5 over 7 ¼f, 5 len behind Jeunetos carrying 131lbs at $8.50. Profiles nicely. Finding it hard to break through but can play a major role in this suitable contest.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bute

Shortened word for phenylbutazone, the common non-steroidal medication legal at most racetrack.

Apprentice

A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.

Stakes Race

Stakes Races are known as better class races, with higher purses and often accompanies by trophies.