Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday (Sept. 2)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Kazuma Okamoto (+420)
• William Contreras (+520)
• Yordan Alvarez (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Kazuma Okamoto (+420)

Blue Jays at Guardians, 6:41 p.m. ET

While Cleveland Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo is a solid pitcher, I really like this matchup for Kazuma Okamoto.

Okamoto has 28 homers on the year, and he’s been excellent against southpaws, mashing his way to a .371 wOBA and 53.4% fly-ball rate in the split. Of Okamoto’s 28 long-balls, 16 have come on the road, and he’s swinging it really well right now, posting a .432 expected wOBA over his past 64 plate appearances.

That’s enough to put me on Okamoto at these odds — even if I’m a fan of Cantillo.

Home Run Prediction: William Contreras (+500)

Brewers at Cubs, 7:41 p.m. ET

Another righty-lefty matchup that catches my eye is William Contreras vs. David Peterson.

Peterson has provided much-needed rotation help for the Chicago Cubs, but he hasn’t been all that great, pitching to a 4.38 SIERA and 19.4% strikeout rate since joining the Cubs. This season overall, Peterson has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .349 wOBA in the split while striking out only 15.6% of righties.

Contreras is having another quality season, posting a .337 expected wOBA. He’s heating up of late, producing a .494 wOBA and .450 average over his previous 45 plate appearances.

On top of that, the wind is once again blowing out at Wrigley — 10 MPH to center.

It all adds up to Contreras being my favorite dinger pick today.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+300)

White Sox at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez hasn’t had many slumps this season. He’s in a funk right now, amassing a lowly .174 average and .284 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances. But he’s got a good matchup to snap out of it today against RHP Davis Martin.

Alvarez has absolutely killed it this year at home and with the platoon advantage. At home in 2026, he owns a .484 wOBA. Versus right-handers this year, he’s got a .459 wOBA. Combine the two together, and Yordan has generated a silly .518 wOBA at home against RHPs along with a 54.4% hard-hit rate in the split.

Martin has put up improved numbers this campaign, but he’s still got just a 4.13 SIERA and 20.6% K rate, so it’s not like he’s been crazy good. He also surrendered six jacks over his last four starts before going on the IL, and this will be his first start back. That could lead to an extended day for a Chicago White Sox bullpen that has the 10th-worst xFIP in 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.