Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday, August 17

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+340)
• Ceddanne Rafaela (+640)
• Max Muncy (+240)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Bryce Harper (+340)

Marlins at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

After a solid start to the season, Janson Junk‘s numbers have fallen off a cliff, and that makes this a friendly matchup for Bryce Harper.

Junk is the owner of a 4.51 SIERA and 6.2% swinging-strike rate. Lefty bats are torching him to the tune of a .354 wOBA, and he’s also having a tough time on the road, giving up a .363 wOBA in his travels.

At home against a RHP is Harper’s best split, with the Philadelphia Phillies‘ star generating a .429 wOBA in that split in 2026. Overall against righties, Harper has a 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 21 of his 25 long-balls have come with the platoon advantage.

After Junk leaves the game, he’ll turn it over to a Miami Marlins bullpen that has given up the fourth-most jacks per nine over the last 30 days (1.50).

Home Run Prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela (+640)

Diamondbacks at Red Sox, 7:11 p.m. ET

I’m intrigued by these long homer odds today for Ceddanne Rafaela at home against a left-hander.

The lefty he’ll see is Mitch Bratt. Despite some good results of late, Bratt isn’t missing many bats, putting up a meager 6.9% swinging-strike rate through 33.2 MLB frames in 2026. He’s giving up a 54.0% fly-ball rate to righty hitters as well as 1.34 homers per nine overall.

Rafaela has already tied his career high with 16 bombs. He’s got a .361 wOBA versus southpaws along with a 38.9% fly-ball rate in the split.

With five long-balls over his past 71 plate appearances, Rafaela is in a good power groove, and I like him at these lengthy odds.

Home Run Prediction: Max Muncy (+240)

Dodgers at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Dodgers are -120 to score over 6.5 runs today. They should have a field day at Coors against Tomoyuki Sugano and the Colorado Rockies‘ bullpen.

This is a great matchup for Max Muncy.

Sugano has pitched to a 4.93 SIERA and 13.9% strikeout rate. Left-handed hitters have a .381 wOBA against him in addition to a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 44.6% fly-ball rate.

Muncy has 24 home runs this season, with 18 of those coming against RHPs. He also has a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

After Sugano is pulled, the Dodgers will take on a Colorado bullpen that has the fifth-worst xFIP over the past 30 days (4.73).

Muncy has two tanks over his last four games, and this is a mouth-watering matchup for him tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.