Home Run Props Today: Henderson, Yordan and a +630 HR Bet

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson (+400)
• Yordan Alvarez (+255)
• Connor Norby (+630)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Gunnar Henderson (+400)

Rays at Orioles, 7:16 p.m. ET

The Baltimore Orioles will face Freddy Peralta today, and that puts me on Gunnar Henderson to go yard.

Peralta is struggling mightily versus lefty bats, giving up 1.62 homers per nine in the split along with a 40.9% fly-ball rate. He’s also just having a bad year overall, sporting career-worst marks in both SIERA (4.35) and strikeout rate (21.5%).

Henderson is having a down year, as well, with a career-worst .309 wOBA. But he’s still got 20 long-balls, and this is his best split as he owns a .341 wOBA at home versus RHPs. Henderson is in a good groove right now, too, putting up a .461 wOBA over his last 40 plate appearances.

Once Peralta departs, the Tampa Bay Rays will turn to a bullpen that has let up the fourth-most homers per nine (1.43) over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+255)

Athletics at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

You can make a decent HR case for Yordan Alvarez on most nights. That’s especially true when the Houston Astros are facing a righty, which is the case today as they’ll see JT Ginn.

Ginn has given up 1.28 jacks per nine since the start of last season. Against left-handed hitters, Ginn has allowed a .324 wOBA and 4.81 xFIP, compared to a 3.44 xFIP and .246 wOBA against righties.

Yordan has 36 dingers already this year, and 27 of those have come versus RHPs. He’s also got a 52.7% hard-hit rate and 49.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

After Ginn, the Astros will take on an A’s bullpen that holds the second-worst xFIP (4.78) across the past 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Connor Norby (+630)

Guardians at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Connor Norby against a lefty at Coors catches my eye at these long odds.

The southpaw he’ll see is Joey Cantillo. While Cantillo is a fine pitcher, he’s worse on the road (.347 wOBA) than at home (.315 wOBA), and now he’s pitching at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.

After a promising 2024 campaign, Norby has put together back-to-back subpar seasons. He’s still good at getting the ball into the air, though, recording a 46.9% fly-ball rate in 2026. He’s hot right now, as well, producing a .427 wOBA with four extra-base hits over his last 16 plate appearances.

All in all, I find Norby’s HR odds intriguing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.