Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 5/18/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Elly De La Cruz
• Trevor Larnach
• Jake Burger

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Reds at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Usually, when Elly De La Cruz plays on the road, he experiences a meaningful park-factor downgrade. That's not as big of a deal today in Philly, and I like his matchup versus RHP Andrew Painter.

Once an elite pitching prospect, Painter is getting his first taste of the big leagues this season. He's doing decently well, pitching to a 4.09 SIERA, but he's not missing many bats (9.8% swinging-strike rate) and has let up plenty of jacks (1.67 HRs per nine). Left-handed hitters have racked up a 40.3% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate against him.

De La Cruz does his best work versus righties, producing a .388 wOBA in the split this year. He's red-hot at the moment, running a .496 wOBA across his past 40 plate appearances.

In a groove, in his preferred split and in a HR-friendly park, Elly is an appealing dinger bet.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+760)

Astros at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

Tatsuya Imai was a big offseason addition for the Houston Astros. It hasn't gone well so far. While things will probably work out in the long run, Imai is really struggling to start his MLB career. That makes the Minnesota Twins attractive in the HR market, and Trevor Larnach's long odds catch my eye.

Imai owns an ugly 5.62 SIERA with a 21.5% walk rate. He hasn't been the guy Houston thought it was getting. It's a tiny sample, but lefty bats have a 41.3% hard-hit rate against him.

Once Imai leaves the game, Houston will turn to a bullpen that boasts the third-worst reliever xFIP.

Larnach has recorded a .359 wOBA and 38.8% hard-hit rate this season. His has a .387 wOBA against right-handers, and he rarely gets to hit versus southpaws, which makes him a pinch-hit risk -- and that's why his HR odds are what they are.

But I'm intrigued by the matchup with Imai, and he could end up getting a full game of plate appearances if he sees righties out of Houston's bullpen.

Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Rangers at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Jake Burger gets a huge park-factor bump today at Coors, and he'll see a lefty.

Burger has launched 79 bombs over the previous three seasons with a .343 expected wOBA in that time. He's quietly a pretty darn good hitter. While it's not happening for him so far in 2026 (.301 wOBA), Burger will likely pick it up eventually, and he's still got eight long balls this campaign. Seven of his eight tanks have come on the road, and there's no more hitter-friendly road venue than Coors.

Veteran southpaw Jose Quintana will be on the bump for the Colorado Rockies. He appears to be running on fumes, struggling to a 6.02 SIERA with a putrid 11.0% walk rate. He's given up 1.62 homers per nine at home -- albeit in a small sample -- and righties have a 49.4% fly-ball rate against him.

Once Quintana departs, Burger will be up against a Colorado bullpen that has let up the ninth-most home runs per nine innings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.