Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday 5/5/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Riley Greene
• Seiya Suzuki
• Kyle Tucker

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Red Sox at Tigers, 6:41 p.m. ET

Riley Greene is up against a combination of Jovani Moran (opener) and Brayan Bello (bulk) tonight, and the wind is blowing out at Comerica, making Greene one of my favorite HR bets today.

Bello is getting rocked this season, struggling to a 5.35 SIERA and 12.8% K rate. Lefties are tagging him for a .550 wOBA so far across a small sample, and this is a split in which Greene thrives.

At home against RHPs in 2025, Greene produced a .338 wOBA and 44.4% fly-ball rate with 13 homers in 227 plate appearances.

With a .389 wOBA and three long balls over his past 47 plate appearances, Greene is in great form, and he can keep it going today.

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Reds at Cubs, 7:41 p.m. ET

The Chicago Cubs are taking on lefty Andrew Abbott, and I like the matchup for Seiya Suzuki.

In 2025, Suzuki launched 32 homers overall and mashed lefties to the tune of a .355 wOBA, 40.7% hard-hit rate and 49.6% fly-ball rate.

He's off to a superb start this campaign, racking up a .424 wOBA with six jacks. He's got a .438 wOBA at Wrigley.

Abbott is a solid pitcher, but he gives up a lot of fly-balls, recording a career 47.8% fly-ball rate. He's permitted 1.30 home runs per nine innings over his career, and he'll be backed up by a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that is second-worst in xFIP (5.02).

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+570)

Dodgers at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

We hit on a Kyle Tucker bomb in yesterday's HR picks, and I'm going back to the well today.

A few of the reasons I liked Tucker on Monday -- familiarity with Houston's park and facing a RHP -- apply again on Tuesday. This time, he'll see Peter Lambert, the owner of a career 4.93 SIERA and 1.59 homers per nine.

Last night's good game included, Tucker now has a .370 expected wOBA over his last 48 plate appearances as he breaks out of his cold start to 2026. As I mentioned yesterday, Tucker is very comfortable hitting in Houston, a place where he amassed a massive .476 wOBA in 2024.

Once Lambert is out of the game, Tucker will be up against a Houston Astros bullpen that is dead last in xFIP (5.05).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.