Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Monday, June 29, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Brandon Lowe +285
• Yordan Alvarez +210
• Matt Chapman +520

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Pirates at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Brandon Lowe checks a few boxes today.

The matchup is a good one as Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola is getting crushed by lefties, allowing a .391 wOBA and 2.28 jacks per nine innings in the split.

The park is a boost, too, as Citizens Bank Park ranks fifth in HR factor across the last three seasons, per Statcast.

Lastly, Lowe is having a strong campaign. He's slugged 20 jacks en route to a .353 wOBA. Of those 20 bombs, 16 have come against RHPs. He's also hit two homers over his past four games.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+210)

Twins at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Minnesota Twins righty Zebby Matthews has posted some elite minor-league numbers in previous seasons but just isn't finding the same level of success in The Show.

Matthews owns a 4.26 SIERA this season while surrendering a .351 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Lefties have a 48.8% fly-ball rate against him along with 1.95 homers per nine.

Enter Yordan Alvarez, one of the game's best hitters.

Alvarez has mashed his way to a massive .476 expected wOBA and 25 tanks this year. He has a .447 wOBA with the platoon advantage and a .473 wOBA at home, so tonight's setup is his ideal split.

While Yordan is in a bit of a funk at the moment -- no hits over his past 17 plate appearances -- it's only a matter of time until he snaps out of it, and this matchup with Matthews might be just what the doctor ordered. Plus, the Twins bullpen has the second-worst xFIP.

Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Giants at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Matt Chapman has been a lefty killer for a long time, and he'll see southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez today.

Chapman is having a meh year overall in 2026, but he's still been productive against lefties, producing a .354 wOBA in the split in addition to a 47.4% fly-ball rate.

Rodriguez's numbers have plummeted this season. His SIERA (4.80) and swinging-strike rate (7.6%) are both career-worst marks. He's given up nine long-balls this year, and eight of those have come to right-handed hitters.

Among players with longer HR odds today, Chapman catches my eye.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.