Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 4/16/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Mike Trout (+490): On an otherworldly tear and facing a left-hander
• Isaac Paredes (+490): Should have several good matchups with the Rockies deploying a bullpen game
• Josh Naylor (+610): These are long odds for a matchup with a struggling righty

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Angels at Yankees, 1:36 p.m. ET

Mike Trout is off to a scorching start this year, and I'm intrigued by his +490 home run odds in a date with lefty Max Fried.

Fried is a very good pitcher, which is why Trout comes in with these kind of odds. But Fried doesn't get much swing and miss, posting a measly 8.6% swinging-strike rate so far this season, and Trout is rocking lefties so far this year to the tune of a .467 wOBA.

With an overall .481 expected wOBA and six jacks already this season, Trout is clearly seeing the ball well, and he's homered four times in this series.

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Rockies at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

The Colorado Rockies are expected to go with a bullpen game today. While that makes predicting hitter-vs.-pitcher matchups nearly impossible, we can feel pretty good about the Houston Astros' offense in general due to Colorado's bullpen sitting just 22nd in strikeout rate (21.5%).

Isaac Paredes' HR odds catch my eye.

Paredes is off to a slow start, but he was good last year in his first full campaign in Houston, generating a .353 wOBA and 47.0% fly-ball rate. He was especially strong at home, racking up a .361 wOBA and 51.0% fly-ball rate in the split.

Paredes should have a couple nice matchups tonight, and his fly-ball heavy ways put him on the dinger radar.

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+610)

Mariners at Padres, 8:41 p.m. ET

The Seattle Mariners are up against Walker Buehler, and I think you can make a homer case for a few Seattle bats. I'm opting for Josh Naylor due to his long odds.

Buehler ended 2025 with a 5.19 SIERA and 16.3% strikeout rate. Lefties hammered him for a .366 wOBA. He's just not a very good pitcher these days.

Naylor hit 20 bombs last year and has two already this season. While his .190 wOBA so far is ugly, his expected wOBA of .305 is a lot more palatable. Against righties last year, he recorded a .361 wOBA and 38.2% hard-hit rate.

Naylor is capable of taking advantage of this friendly matchup, and given the lengthy odds, this is my favorite HR prop today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.