Best NRFI Bets Today: 4 No Run First Inning MLB Picks for Thursday 4/16/26

Today's Top NRFI Picks at a Glance

• Guardians at Orioles NRFI
• Nationals at Pirates NRFI
• Rangers at Athletics NRFI
• Royals at Tigers NRFI
• Mariners at Padres NRFI

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning 0.5 Runs under the Innings tab for each MLB game.

Please note: lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the top home run picks for today?

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Pick #1 — Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles NRFI

6:10 PM ET | Parker Messick vs. Shane Baz

Step-by-Step Analysis:

1. Parker Messick Has Allowed Just One Run All Season. Messick has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball through 17.2 innings in 2026, allowing a single earned run. His command and contact suppression are ideal for NRFI situations, where getting through three batters without damage is the only requirement.
2. The Orioles Are Slow Starters in 2026. Baltimore has scored in the first inning just four times in 16 games this season — a first-inning scoring rate of just 25%. That is one of the lowest marks in the American League. Combining an elite young pitcher on the mound with one of the most first-inning-dormant lineups in baseball creates a highly favorable NRFI environment for the bottom of the first.
3. Shane Baz Has Been Serviceable With a 4.50 ERA. Baz's numbers are not as good as Messick's, but his FIP of 3.66 indicates he has been pitching better than his ERA suggests. Cleveland's lineup is not the most explosive unit in baseball and ranks right near the MLB average in wOBA. Baz's ability to attack the zone early in starts makes him a reasonable NRFI arm for this spot.
4. Orioles Are the Best NRFI Team in Baseball in 2026. According to current 2026 NRFI trend data, the Orioles own the best NRFI record in the league. Their rotation overhaul — featuring Baz, Trevor Rogers (0 ERA in 2026 first-inning work), and Chris Bassitt — has made them a consistent NRFI machine.
5. Cleveland Is Built for Low-Scoring Baseball. The Guardians' deep, young rotation and disciplined defensive approach has kept them near the top of the NRFI leaderboard, as well.

Pick #2 — Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals NRFI

12:35 PM ET | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Foster Griffin

Step-by-Step Analysis:

1. Ashcraft Is Pitching Like an Ace. Braxton Ashcraft's 2.12 ERA and 2.19 xERA confirm that his early-season results are not a product of luck. A pitcher generating legitimate contact suppression and commanding his arsenal at this level is going to consistently do well in first innings. His 10.5 K/9 means he has the pure stuff to retire the first three batters he faces, which is the only requirement for winning this bet.
2. Foster Griffin's Luck Is Running Out — But His Opponent Matters. Washington's Griffin carries a 1.76 ERA that is wildly divergent from his 5.09 xERA, meaning he has been extremely fortunate to this point in 2026. However, Griffin's impending long-term regression doesn't matter too much for the purpose of this NRFI play. Plus, it's a fairly neutral matchup.
3. Pirates' Team First-Inning Profile. Pittsburgh's offense has shown more patience and less early aggression than many NL competitors, preferring to work counts and attack pitchers deep in games rather than in the first inning. This offensive philosophy benefits NRFI bettors playing games involving the Pirates.

Pick #3 — Texas Rangers vs. Athletics NRFI

3:05 PM ET | Jack Leiter vs. Jacob Lopez

Step-by-Step Analysis:

1. Jack Leiter Is as Good as Any First-Inning Pitcher on Today's Board. A 12.8 K/9 and 17% swing-and-miss rate define a pitcher who can go through a lineup's top three hitters in the first inning with ease. Leiter's ability to throw first-pitch strikes and get ahead in counts means he rarely gives the top of an opponent's order a chance to set up run-scoring situations.
2. Jacob Lopez Has a Command Problem — but It Shouldn't Last. Lopez has issued 13 walks in just 13.1 innings this season. But he had just a decent 9.3% walk rate last year, so he should be in the zone more moving forward.
3. There Is Some Risk. The Lopez side carries more uncertainty than other games on this list due to his extreme command volatility. However, Leiter's side is so dominant — 7 Ks per game average, 17% SwStr%, and clean first-inning form — that it tips the overall balance strongly toward NRFI on the Texas side of this game.

Pick #4 — Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers NRFI

1:10 PM ET | Kris Bubic vs. Keider Montero

Step-by-Step Analysis:

1. Bubic Is Coming Off an 11-Strikeout Performance. There is no hotter pitcher in the American League right now than Kris Bubic, who just went seven shutout innings and struck out 11 batters against the White Sox. His 7.7 Ks-per-game season average indicates this is not a one-game anomaly.
2. Keider Montero Has Also Been Sharp. Detroit's Montero is coming off a shutout performance of his own, tossing six scoreless innings against the Marlins in his last outing. Two pitchers who just delivered shutout performances in their most recent starts meeting in the same game sets the stage for a NRFI.
3. Kansas City and Detroit Are Low-Offense Teams Early in Games. Neither the Royals nor the Tigers rank among the top half of the league in first-inning scoring rate in 2026. This reduces the probability of a quick-strike offensive explosion from either side.

NRFI Betting — Frequently Asked Questions

What does NRFI mean in baseball betting? NRFI stands for No Run First Inning. It's a baseball bet where you wager that neither team will score in the first inning. The opposite bet — at least one run scored in the first inning — is called YRFI (Yes Run First Inning).

How does a NRFI bet work? A NRFI bet is settled when the first inning is completed. If both teams fail to score, your bet wins. If either team scores one or more runs, the bet loses. The final game score has no bearing on the outcome.

What is the difference between NRFI and YRFI? NRFI bets that no runs will score in the first inning, while YRFI bets that at least one run will.

What stats should I look at for NRFI bets? The most important factors are usually each starting pitcher's first-inning ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate (K%). You should also look at each team's first-inning batting average and on-base percentage as well as individual player stats for the first few batters in the lineup for each team.

Can I parlay NRFI bets? Yes, FanDuel lets you parlay NRFIs across multiple games on the same slate.

Where can you find NRFI betting lines on FanDuel? You can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning 0.5 Runs under the Innings tab for each MLB game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.