Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 4/13/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson (+470): At home and in preferred split versus a right-hander
• Brandon Lowe (+540): In his best split and off to a scorching start
• Will Smith (+470): Facing a lefty and at home

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Home Run Pick: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Diamondbacks at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Ryne Nelson is starting today for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and that draws me to Gunnar Henderson.

Nelson has allowed a 42.4% fly-ball rate on the road in his career, and Henderson is a monster in this split.

Versus righties at home last season, Henderson posted a .394 wOBA and 43.6% hard-hit rate. He hit 17 bombs last year, and 10 of them came in Baltimore.

Sporting a .403 wOBA so far this season, Henderson can continue his good start today in a friendly matchup.

Home Run Pick: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Nationals at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Brandon Lowe's Pittsburgh Pirates tenure is off to a red-hot start as he's put up a .422 wOBA and five homers through 59 plate appearances.

Lowe does his best work against RHPs, and he's up against righty Cade Cavalli today.

In this season's small sample, Lowe has mauled righties to the tune of a .578 wOBA and 43.5% hard-hit rate -- with all five of his dingers coming in the split.

Cavalli is a nice matchup despite what his 2.51 ERA may have you believe. He's pitched to a 5.14 SIERA so far this campaign and surrendered six home runs across five road starts last year.

Once Cavalli is out of the game, Lowe will see a Washington Nationals bullpen that is dead last in xFIP in 2026 (5.21).

Home Run Picks: Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Mets at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

In the night's final game, I'm interested in Will Smith's homer prop.

Smith will be up against New York Mets southpaw David Peterson. Peterson is a fine hurler, but he doesn't miss many bats, recording a 20.3% K rate since the start of 2024. He allowed a 38.6% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters in 2025 -- up significantly from the 28.8% clip he permitted to lefty bats.

Smith fared much better at home last season (.414 wOBA) than he did on the road (.363), and he's got a .380 wOBA with two jacks thus far in 2026. This is a good spot for him to leave the yard for a third time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that an HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Get a 50% Profit Boost Token to use on any wager for any MLB Games taking place on April 10th, 2026! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stan d out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.