I'm not sure this is the closely contested New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys matchup we all thought of at the beginning of the season, but we got a Thanksgiving game that both teams can win. Hooray?

Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites at home in Dallas, and the total is set at a dreadful 37.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Giants at Cowboys NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

CeeDee Lamb ($16,000)

CeeDee Lamb's days of contending for the WR1 in fantasy are over, but he still could pay off his slate-high salary here.

Lamb has seen a 29.3% target share (11.3 per game) in his last three games with Cooper Rush, and it was nice to see the volume hold in a neutral game script last week in D.C. He's topped 11 FanDuel points (FDP) in two of these contests without scoring.

While those targets aren't hyper-efficient at this stage, there's juice on them; 2.3 have come at least 10 yards downfield, and 1.0 of them per game have been in the red zone despite the touchdown drought.

Unable to generate a running game, Dallas is 1st in adjusted pace and 10th in pass rate over expectation, so Lamb's opportunities should be there, and I wouldn't discount this game's scoring sailing beyond its total as both struggling defenses will have to deal with offenses that push a nice tempo.

Malik Nabers ($15,000)

Does the "squeaky wheel" narrative end up juicing the designed looks for Malik Nabers this week?

He and head coach Brian Daboll clashed publicly about his usage after Nabers didn't touch the ball in the first half last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The sixth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft probably was hoping for closer to his pre-injury average in targets per game (13.0) than what he's earned since returning (10.2).

In a game like this, Nabers' overall 35.8% target share could be a great look at MVP against numberFire's 22nd-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense -- especially as underdog.

There's just one problem: Tommy DeVito has never looked like an NFL quarterback, posting -0.26 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) this season as the G-Men actively tank for his replacement.

However, DeVito "isn't 100% to play" through a forearm issue, and I'd be significantly more inclined to roster Nabers if Drew Lock's 8.2 aDOT from last season is slinging the pigskin.

Cooper Rush ($14,000)

Topping 17 FDP in consecutive weeks, Cooper Rush is starting to look like the one-for-one Dak Prescott replacement that Cowboys fans previously trusted him to be.

According to nF, the Giants have been much better against the pass (17th) than the rush (29th), but Dallas' season-high total for rushing yardage is 137. They've typically been forced to move the ball through the air, and New York isn't great defending that play type, either.

Therefore, it could make sense to make a contrarian dart at Rush, who is projected for a slate-high 15.1 FDP by our Week 13 NFL DFS projections.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($12,500)

My preferred MVPs are each team's respective running backs, which shouldn't be a popular play at lower salaries.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has exploded past 15 FDPs in four of his last seven games, and it probably becomes five of seven if not for a red-zone fumble in Week 12 against Tampa.

In the last five weeks, the rookie has taken over N.Y.'s backfield to post a 64.5% snap rate and 19.0 adjusted opportunities. The recent fumbles probably aren't an issue for his role considering the team wants to lose -- and wants a longer look at the fifth-rounder in a lost campaign.

The 'Boys are nF's very worst schedule-adjusted rush D, so the matchup for Tracy couldn't get any better to realize his ceiling again.

Rico Dowdle ($11,500)

Rico Dowdle has taken on a nearly identical role as Tracy Jr. on the other sideline.

In the past five weeks, the former top recruit has a 59.7% snap share for Dallas as their proverbial last man standing. Ezekiel Elliott (-0.17 rushing yards over expectation per carry in the past five games) and Dalvin Cook (-0.44) are old veterans playing poorly in a completely lost year.

He's actually seen more adjusted opportunities (21.8) in fewer snaps, which is inflated as the receiving back during the Cowboys' recent negative scripts.

In this game, we could see Dowdle's best effort of the year on the ground. New York, numberFire's 29th-ranked rush defense, just allowed 156 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns to the Bucs at home.

Flex Targets

Wan'Dale Robinson ($10,000)

DeVito's inability to push the ball down the field (6.2 aDOT) would help Wan'Dale Robinson in the slot. Robinson caught 5 balls for 47 yards in his first start last week. His lack of yardage upside likely means he'll need a score or a spike week in targets to make the optimal lineup, but he makes sense in a lineup projecting the Giants get waxed as they did last week.

Luke Schoonmaker ($9,500)

As of Tuesday, Jake Ferguson (concussion) is a true question mark, and Luke Schoonmaker has averaged 7.0 targets and 55.5 receiving yards per game in his last two contests since Ferguson departed. This Mike McCarthy offense in Dallas has always been friendly to tight ends if we know which one will get most of the work.

Brandon Aubrey ($9,500) and Graham Gano ($9,000)

A game with this low of a total will always invite kickers, and these just so happen to be excellent ones. Brandon Aubrey has posted 11.1 FDP per game this year with a leg that's a threat from 70 yards, and Graham Gano has made five of six total kicks since returning, but last week's dud against a similarly poor defense has to raise concerns he gets enough chances.

Cowboys D/ST ($8,500) and Giants D/ST ($8,500)

The Giants are fifth in the NFL in sacks (36), and Dallas' banged-up offensive line has allowed the opposing D/ST to post 14.3 FDP per game in their last three contests. I prefer them at this identical salary, but Dallas also potentially gets DeVito's 4.1 sacks per game taken across his career. These aren't good defenses, but a huge day from mistakes wouldn't surprise anyone.

KaVontae Turpin ($7,500)

At what point does KaVontae Turpin's video-game-like ability to navigate the defense earn him more legitimate touches? He's now housed a touchdown in consecutive games from at least 50 yards out. This salary is hard to swallow for a 22.4% snap rate on offense, but an argument could be made it'll go up with more designed touches if he keeps producing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.