The anchor FGS play. Havertz is Germany's starting centre-forward — the focal point of every attack, operating as a false-9 who drops into pockets to link play and arrives late in the box. A full-strength Germany attack is a different level of problem for Paraguay, and sides who pack the box against this German front line have been carved open once the overloads start. Havertz scored the opening goal against Ivory Coast and has the joint-shortest FGS price at +450.

Kai Havertz can be wagered to be among the goals at +145 anytime. He looks like an attractive wager to be on the scoresheet. The FGS at +450 pays 4.5× stake for the player most centrally positioned to receive Germany's first dangerous ball. When Germany dominate possession and probe Paraguay's block, the first gap almost certainly finds Havertz in a finishing position.

Undav is priced identically to Havertz at +450 FGS and +145 anytime. He scored the winner against Ivory Coast, arriving late from the right side to finish. He operates right of centre in Germany's 4-2-3-1, making late box runs that are harder to track than Havertz's more telegraphed movements.

The case for Undav over Havertz as FGS: he moves more dynamically and arrives into shooting positions from wider starting positions, meaning his goals often come earlier in the game when Paraguay's defensive shape is still setting up. He scored Germany's first meaningful knockout-phase goal against Ivory Coast and has the profile of a player who catches defences cold in the opening exchanges.

Musiala scored in both of Germany's group wins and is arguably their most dangerous player when the game is flowing. Jamal Musiala admitted the team must improve quickly after the Ecuador defeat, while Joshua Kimmich stressed that Germany cannot afford similar mistakes once the knockout rounds begin. That hunger to prove themselves in the knockouts sets up a Germany team ready to press hard from the first minute — exactly the game state that produces early first goals.

At +550 versus +450 for Havertz and Undav, Musiala carries 20% extra FGS value for a player who has scored in every game Germany won. Paraguay's 4-4-2 will press in two lines — Musiala's ability to receive between those lines and turn creates the kind of early chances that lead to first goals.

Enciso is Paraguay's most dangerous attacking player and now their primary set-piece delivery man with Gómez suspended. The Brighton forward scored a famous rocket against Man City in 2023 and has genuine ability to score from range. Julio Enciso can be backed to have a minimum of one shot on goal at +114 — when it comes to wagering shots on target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

The return of Miguel Almirón from suspension adds a significant threat on the counter, and both teams to score at 2.10 carries appeal as a supplementary pick. If Paraguay win the ball high early and transition through Enciso and Almirón, the first goal could be a Paraguay counter. One small unit only.

Nick Woltemade is the top goalscorer with 4 goals, with Leroy Sané, Deniz Undav and Serge Gnabry scoring 3 each. Florian Wirtz is the top assists maker on 4. Woltemade leads Germany's tournament scoring chart — remarkable for a rotation player. If Nagelsmann starts him alongside Havertz given his form, this becomes an A-grade FGS play at +500.

Monitor the confirmed lineup closer to 4:30PM ET. As a substitute, +160 anytime is still compelling. But the FGS at +500 for Germany's tournament top scorer is significant value if he features from the start.