Germany vs Paraguay: Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Best Bets Today

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📖 Match Preview

Julian Nagelsmann's Germany enter as heavy favourites — and the market has shortened them significantly. The -320 ML (up from -265) and -950 advance (up from -750) reflect sharp money coming in on the Germans. Not enough people are talking about Germany being a contender in this World Cup, but the 2014 champions are very much alive. They beat Curaçao 7-1, edged Ivory Coast 2-1 with a last-gasp Undav winner, then lost 2-1 to Ecuador in a dead-rubber. Since a 2-0 defeat to Slovakia in September 2025, Germany have won 11 of their last 12 matches.

Paraguay have pulled off what looked impossible after their 4-1 thrashing by the USA. Back-to-back clean sheets against Turkey (1-0) and Australia (0-0) got them through as a best third-place finisher. Paraguay will be happy to let Germany dominate possession — that was the approach they took against both the USA and Turkey — but it's difficult to see them exiting the World Cup after this clash.

Nagelsmann wants his full-backs to push high up the pitch, and combined with the problems Germany's attackers can create in the final third, that should stretch Paraguay's defensive line to a breaking point. Paraguay also have concerns at the top end of the pitch, generating a paltry 1.1 xG across three games so far. Their counter-attacking nature naturally leads to fewer chances, but Julio Enciso has looked a little lost going forward and needs more support from his teammates.

Key line movement note: The Over 2.5 has moved from -137 to -142, meaning sharp money has shifted decisively to the Over. With Almirón back in the Paraguay XI and Germany's full attack starting together for the first time, the total market reflects a more open game than earlier projections. Mostly sunny, ~80°F in Foxborough for the 4:30PM ET kickoff.

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⭐ Best Bets Today — FanDuel

All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · Updated June 29 2026 · Germany ML -320 / Paraguay +1000 / Draw +420 (SI.com FD June 29) · Germany advance -950 / Paraguay advance +600 · O2.5 -142 / U2.5 +116 · BTTS Yes +108 / No -143 · GER -1.5 AH -104 · Havertz anytime +145 / FGS +450 · Musiala anytime +185 / FGS +550 · Wirtz anytime +185 / FGS +550 · Enciso anytime check FD · Germany predicted 4-2-3-1: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlović; Sané, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz (Goal.com June 29) · Paraguay predicted 4-4-2: Gill; Cáceres, Alderete, Velázquez, Alonso; Almirón, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio; Avalos, Enciso (Goal.com/101GreatGoals June 29) · Schlotterbeck OUT tournament · Brown probable · Diego Gómez SUSPENDED · Alderete knee doubt · Almirón BACK from suspension · Germany 11W 1L since Sep 2025 · Paraguay xG 1.1 total across 3 group games · R16 M90 Jul 4 1PM ET GER/PRY winner vs SA/Canada winner · ~80°F mostly sunny Gillette Stadium Foxborough MA · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER