French Open Third Round Betting Picks: Friday 5/31/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

French Open Best Bets

Andrey Rublev vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Rublev -5.5 Games (-116)

Andrey Rublev has had a topsy-turvy 2024 campaign, but with his record up to 24-9, the good has definitely outweighed the bad. At one point this spring, Rublev uncharacteristically went on a four-match losing streak, yet he would bounce back by winning a Masters 1000 title in Madrid. Additionally, he was an Australian Open quarterfinalist in January, marking the 10th time he's reached the quarters of a Grand Slam.

Rublev has enjoyed plenty of success on clay courts over his career, entering the French Open with a 66.7% clay win percentage, and that Madrid championship gave him his sixth career clay title.

While he faced some challenges in the first round this week, a second-round win in straight sets over clay specialist Pedro Martinez (6-3, 6-4, 6-3) is an encouraging sign that the Russian is poised for another deep run at a major.

Matteo Arnaldi has an unremarkable 17-12 record in 2024, and outside of a quarterfinal appearance in Barcelona, he's pretty much alternated between wins and losses during this clay-court swing.

In the lone meeting between these two, Rublev won in straight sets in Vienna (a hard-court tournament) late in 2023.

If we plug this matchup into Massey Rating's matchup tool, it projects the Russian to win 81% of the time. Particularly considering Arnaldi's shaky form of late, I like Rublev's chances of covering this spread in what should be a routine victory.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Denis Shapovalov

Hurkacz -4.5 Games (-106)

Hubert Hurkacz hasn't had the smoothest run thus far after going five sets against qualifier Shintaro Mochizuki (world No. 162) and then four sets versus Brandon Nakashima (world No. 84), but his overall body of work has been impressive in 2024.

Hurkacz is 28-11 this season, and what's most notable is that he's gone 13-3 in clay matches, which has historically been his weakest surface. He even picked up his first-ever clay title (Estoril) in April. His three clay losses have all come against top-20 opponents, which is another positive sign.

Denis Shapovalov continues to work his way back from last year's season-ending knee injury, and he's done well to make it to the third round. However, wins over a player outside the top 100 (Luca Van Assche) and a slumping Frances Tiafoe probably aren't enough to prove he's ready to hang with a top-10 opponent like Hurkacz.

Even with the wins, Shapovalov is still just 9-13 in this campaign, and he hasn't strung more than two wins in a row all season. To make matters worse, Hurkacz has dominated their head-to-head 4-1, and while all those matches have come on hard courts, Hurkacz's recent improvement on clay won't do Shapovalov any favors.

Massey Ratings' matchup tool gives Hurkacz an 80% win probability. If he had won his previous two rounds more cleanly, I would be more tempted to take a shot at a straight-sets win (+230), but at the very least, we should be confident in him covering the spread against a player who's still searching for his previous form.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.