French Open Men's Championship Odds: Uncertainty Around Top Contenders

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024. The French Open main draw will begin play on Sunday, May 26th, and Grand Slams Betting Odds are already up on FanDuel Sportsbook.

How do the odds shake out for this year's field? Let's take a look at how the top contenders stack up on the men's side.

Men's Singles Championship Odds

Carlos Alcaraz (+250)

It's no secret that Carlos Alcaraz is a wizard on clay, so it isn't surprising to see him coming into this event as the favorite. Despite turning just 21 years old earlier this month, Alcaraz already has seven clay titles and has amassed a 69-17 career record (80.2% win rate) on the surface.

Yet it's easy to forget that despite having two Grand Slam titles, not only has Alcaraz never won the French Open, but he's never actually even made the final.

Of course, much of this simply has to do with the Spaniard still being so young -- he's played in the French Open main draw just three times -- and he was a semifinalist here in 2023, losing to that year's champion, Novak Djokovic.

The real concern for the world No. 3 is his health, as he missed two of the three clay Masters 1000 events, most recently skipping the Italian Open that just ended. The good news is that a recent video of him training that was posted by his coach's academy looks very promising and is hopefully a sign he'll be good to go next week.

Novak Djokovic (+290)

As noted above, Djokovic is the defending champ, but he comes in with his own share of questions. The 24-time Grand Slam champion hasn't exactly looked the part over the past few months due to a pair of shocking upsets.

In March at Indian Wells, lucky loser Luca Nardi shocked the tennis world by becoming the lowest-ranked player (123rd) to defeat Djokovic at a Masters 1000 or Grand Slam.

Then, fast forward to just last week in Rome, and we saw Djokovic get knocked out by 32nd-ranked Alejandro Tabilo in a match that took a mere 67 minutes. A flukey head injury due to a water bottle may have been to blame for the uncharacteristic performance, but regardless of the reason, the early exit has led to Novak being short on clay reps, forcing him to enter the Geneva Open this week -- an ATP 250 event he's never played in before.

These unusual circumstances make it difficult to know what kind of form he'll be in once he arrives in Paris. Still, as the odds show, we should probably know better than to ever doubt Djokovic, who's still the world No. 1 and was a semifinalist at the Australian Open earlier this year.

Novak has won two of the last three French Opens and has lifted the trophy three times overall. He's also finished runner-up four times.

Jannik Sinner (+460)

Jannik Sinner has enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 campaign, but similar to Alcaraz, his health is uncertain.

The world No. 2 is an absurd 28-2 this season, winning his first Grand Slam (the Australian Open) while also nabbing titles in Miami and Rotterdam. While he's 6-1 on clay this year, with the lone loss coming in the Monte Carlo semifinals against eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, he was forced to withdraw from the Madrid quarterfinals due to injury and then skipped the Italian Open entirely.

But like Alcaraz, there are signs that Sinner will be able to participate at Roland-Garros. Sinner recently posted photos of himself training on clay, and one of his coaches posted a not-so-subtle hint that the 22-year-old will be in Paris.

Even assuming full health, Sinner has never made it past the French Open quarterfinals, and he was shockingly bounced in the second round last year. But prior to his recent injury, there wasn't a hotter player on the ATP Tour, so a run to the final could absolutely be in the cards.

Alexander Zverev (+650)

With the possibility that the three top contenders might not be at their best, that clearly opens the door for someone else to take advantage.

Alexander Zverev comes in with the fourth-shortest odds and is fresh off winning this year's Italian Open. Zverev has now secured eight career clay titles, and he's up to fourth in the rankings.

Zverev has reached the French Open semifinals three years in a row, with a competitive 2022 matchup against Rafael Nadal notably ending in the German suffering a terrible injury that would sideline him for the rest of the year.

It's been a long road for Zverev to get back to being one of the sport's top players, and the Italian Open title was his first Masters 1000 trophy since 2021. He's now 28-9 for the season, and he was a semifinalist at this year's Australian Open, too.

According to Tennis Abstract, Zverev comes in as the fifth-best surface-blended Elo rating.

Other Notables

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+800) - Tsitsipas is the 2024 Monte Carlo champion, and he also finished runner-up in Barcelona. He's 13-3 on clay this season and owns a career 76.4% clay win rate. When accounting for surface, he's actually fourth in Tennis Abstract's Elo Ratings ahead of Zverev.

Casper Ruud (+1100) - Ruud is a back-to-back French Open finalist but hasn't been able to finish the deal. He defeated Tsitsipas in the 2024 Barcelona final to earn his 10th clay title. Like Djokovic, Ruud is also competing in Geneva following an opening-round loss in Rome.

Rafael Nadal (+1600) - In what will almost certainly be Nadal's final French Open, he enters with little in the way of expectations as his body continues to betray him. He's gone just 7-4 this season, most recently getting run off the court by Hubert Hurkacz in Rome. This will be Nadal's first Grand Slam since the 2023 Australian Open. While it would be typical Rafa to have one last deep run in him when we least expect it, he should probably be a longer shot than this to win.

Daniil Medvedev (+2600) - Medvedev isn't known for his play on this surface, though he did win last year's Italian Open for his first clay title. History hasn't been kind to him at the French Open, as he's made it out of the first round just twice in seven tries, with his best result being the quarterfinals in 2021.

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