Fantasy Football: Zay Flowers Won't Make a Leap in 2024

Zay Flowers -- a 2023 first-round pick -- was a shiny new toy for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens' offense last season. His ability after the catch and his speed were attention-grabbing attributes.

He enjoyed a successful rookie season as Flowers finished as the WR29 following a 2023 WR43 average draft position (ADP), per FantasyPros' half-PPR ADP.

We saw some of Flowers' big-play ability last season, which included a season-best 75-yard house call. The second-year wideout could be in a position to take another step in 2024.

Let's break down Flowers' chances of making a leap in his second season with the Ravens.

Zay Flowers Fantasy Football Outlook

Flowers Becomes New Head of the Flock

Simply put, Flowers has the ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands. He could be surrounded on any given play, you blink and he's scampering 50 yards to the end zone. These players are some of the most exciting fantasy assets as they can flip your weekly matchup in a matter of minutes.

However, wideouts who rely on big plays can be pretty inconsistent. Does Flowers have a big enough role to produce good fantasy value?

His rookie season was positive, especially when it came to Flowers' workload. He led the team's receivers in receptions (77) and targets (108) by a landslide; the next-best marks were held by Odell Beckham (35 receptions; 64 targets).

Flowers also boasted the most yards after contact on the team (391) and led the squad with a per-game mark of +0.2 FanDuel points (FDP) over his expected FanDuel points, per Brandon Gdula's expected FDP model.

After coming up with only one top-15 weekly finish over his first 11 games, Baltimore's wideout bloomed late in the season with four top-15 weekly finishes over his last five games. Three of these games were top-nine weekly finishes.

The big plays continued in the playoffs with Flowers posting 115 receiving yards and one touchdown, which included a 54-yard reception in the AFC Championship against the Kansas City Chiefs.

While Flowers was a decent fantasy option in 2023, how about this coming year? His ADP is WR26, meaning he will need to take his game to the next level for good value (WR29 last season).

Andrews' Absence Cannot Be Understated

First and foremost, the Ravens remain a run-centric team that attempted the second-fewest passing attempts per game in 2023. Baltimore averaged the third-most yards per passing attempt, contributing to Flowers' 11.1 yards per catch.

While Flowers led the team in targets, it's still nothing to write home about as his 108 targets were the 31st-most (including tight ends).

This isn't necessarily a death blow as Nico Collins finished as WR9 with the 30th-most targets. However, Flowers has to dramatically improve his yards per catch to approach this level. For reference, Collins racked up 16.2 yards per reception.

His average depth of target (aDOT) produces legitimate concern. While Flowers does have some ability as a deep threat, Jackson mostly opted to give those shots to Beckham and Rashod Bateman as both of those wideouts had aDOTs of over 14.0. Meanwhile, Flowers posted an 8.8 aDOT -- pedestrian to say the least.

Flowers' major lead in targets last season was also a bit fortunate. Odell and Mark Andrews -- who received the second and third-most targets -- missed several games due to injuries. Beckham was absent for three games while Andrews missed seven. Keep in mind that the Ravens rested most starters in Week 18 ahead of the postseason.

Odell participated for most of the season, but Andrews missed six games due to an ankle injury. We are talking about a three-time Pro Bowl tight end who finished as a top-five fantasy tight end for four consecutive seasons from 2019 to 2022.

In a limited sample, Andrews still produced in 2023 with the fourth-most fantasy points per game at his position. If Andrews plays most of the season -- as he did from 2018 to 2022 -- Flowers can kiss a breakout season goodbye.

Baltimore simply does not have enough targets to go around, and Andrews has consistently been Jackson's go-to target. In fact, when Andrews played last season, Flowers averaged only 8.0 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues, compared to 14.7 without Andrews in the lineup.

So, what's the final call for Flowers' chances of taking another step in 2024?

Zay Flowers Fantasy Football Projection

Flowers looks to be in position to finish similar to last season's WR29 spot. Unlike Flowers' rookie season, though, I'm not sure if he can surpass his ADP by over 10 spots.

According to numberFire's fantasy football projections, Flowers is forecasted for a WR26 season -- projected for 81 receptions, 126 targets, 1,007 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. This would be improvement across the board and adds up to 7.4 targets, 59.2 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns on a per-game basis; last year's marks were 6.8 targets, 53.6 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per contest.

Beckham being out of the fold helps increase the second-year receiver's workload. But the presence of a healthy Andrews is still in the back of my mind. Flowers was putting up 6.7 fewer fantasy points and 1.5 fewer targets per game with the star tight end on the field.

Andrews led the 2023 squad with a 34.1% red zone target share, compared to Flowers' 22.2%. Four of the rookie's five touchdowns also came when Andrews was out.

Brace yourself -- we've heard this one too many times -- but Bateman is earning praise in the offseason. Andrews was one player giving glowing reviews, saying "I think he looks incredible. Everything -- his route running, catching the ball, being where he's supposed to be -- he has it down to a science."

Bateman, who reached only 367 receiving yards with 56 targets in 2024, increasing his production would likely harm Flowers' chances of a breakout. numberFire's projections are suggesting an improved Bateman with 75 targets and 606 receiving yards.

Flowers' projections are perhaps a little too positive. A healthy Andrews and improved Bateman would be big problems. Plus, Baltimore is expected to use more two tight end sets in 2024, meaning more work for Isaiah Likely.

At best, Flowers will probably be hanging around his WR26 ADP. The potential for finishing far above this mark is absent.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.