Fantasy Football: Will We Regret Buying Into Michael Pittman Jr.'s High Draft Stock?

With only four seasons under his belt, Michael Pittman Jr. is already among the most successful wide receivers in Indianapolis Colts history.

He's notched 336 receptions through just 62 games, good for the fifth-most catches at the position in franchise history.

The former USC standout is primed to climb up the Indy ranks after inking a three-year, $70 million contract extension with the Colts this offseason.

From a fantasy perspective, Pittman has been equally impressive, finishing as WR23 or better in each of his three seasons since his rookie campaign.

He currently owns a 19.3 average draft position (ADP) at wide receiver and is being selected at pick 30, per FantasyPros' consensus ADP data.

Will Pittman meet, exceed, or fail to reach the lofty expectations of a top-20 finish at the position? Let's examine his outlook for the upcoming season.

Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Football Outlook

Pittman Jr. Through the Years

The Colts have had a different signal-caller at the helm in each of Pittman's four seasons with the team, but the lack of sustainability hasn't mattered much.

Pittman's injury-shortened rookie season was fairly uneventful, though he did grab 40 receptions via 61 targets on an encouraging 12.6 yards per reception average.

He caught the attention of every fantasy football manager in town during his sophomore bid, logging 1,082 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for a WR15 finish despite coming into that season with 46.0 ADP at the position.

Like clockwork, Pittman's draft stock skyrocketed in the ensuing season. He was the 11th wide receiver taken off the board at pick 29. But the hype was too bold, as Pittman disappointed with a WR23 finish.

Fantasy football partakers kept this underwhelming finish in mind heading into last season. Pittman was overlooked in drafts, owning a 32.7 ADP at wide receiver at pick 80. But as we all saw, Pittman reminded everyone who he is, grabbing a career-high in yards (1,152) and receptions (109) and finishing the season out as WR15.

So, there's been a ton of variability in Pittman's fantasy draft stock over the years. He went from being the 46th wide receiver taken at pick 117, to the 11th taken at pick 29, to the 33rd taken at pick 80.

As mentioned, there have been similar inconsistencies within the Colts' offense. Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan were each under center for full seasons in Pittman's first three years in the league. Anthony Richardson took over last season but was subbed in for Gardner Minshew following a season-ending injury.

Despite the in-team erraticism and the varying draft stocks, Pittman has been pretty steady in his production, finishing as WR15, WR23, and WR15 in the last three seasons. This is an impressive feat, and his ability to consistently perform in the face of QB changes speaks to Pittman's talent. Will he manage to keep it up under Richardson's style of play?

How Will Richardson Effect Pittman's Production?

While the names on the jerseys have been different, Rivers, Wentz, Ryan, and Minshew are a quartet of quarterbacks who do not use their legs, and Pittman was the prime target for the latter three.

He saw 129 targets under Wentz, 141 targets under Ryan (and Sam Ehlinger), and 156 targets in a 2023 season that was largely helmed by Minshew. In this three-season span, only three other players saw at least 70 targets.

Pittman has been privy to an exciting workload under pass-heavy offenses. His target share will stay dominant with Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce in the wings, but we'd be right to question the volume under Richardson.

Richardson suited up for only four games in his rookie season and was limited in two of those contests. While we can't tap into a voluminous sample with Richardson as a Colt, we know how productive he is on the ground.

Last year, he ran the ball (25 attempts) half as many times as he threw completions (50). Richardson used his legs to gain 136 yards and 4 touchdowns while he completed 577 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air.

In his limited time with Richardson under center, Pittman owned a 27.2% target share, 25.3% target rate, and a 59.1% catch rate. He posted the following fantasy points in the four games started by Richardson: 19.7, 9.6, 12.2, and 4.0, good for an average of 11.4 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring.

Pittman's production looked better under Minshew. He held a 31.4% target share, 29.6% target rate, and a 71.6% catch rate when Minshew was taking the snaps. He also averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring in 12 games started by Minshew.

Pittman is still the far-and-away number-one target in what should be a high-scoring offense. His ability to adjust under different QBs is proven, but Richardson's style of play does impede Pittman's ceiling. With Richardson and Jonathan Taylor primed to eat up scoring duties, perhaps Pittman's touchdown ceiling is too questionable to justify his ADP.

Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's season-long NFL projections expect Pittman to tally 100.87 receptions for 1,081.31 yards and 6.23 touchdowns via 153.93 targets.

These projections assume that Pittman (and Richardson) will play a full 17-game season.

Pittman has played at least 16 games in three straight seasons, so we have an excellent idea of what he has done with a full workload. Up until this point, his career highs include 109 receptions, 156 targets, 1,151 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Now, let's circle back to numberFire's projections. They expect a slight drawback from Pittman's career highs in receptions, targets, and yards, all of which were achieved last season. This makes sense considering an offense helmed by Richardson and features Taylor is primed to be productive on the ground.

But numberFire also has Pittman notching 6.23 touchdowns, indicating that he could be in for a career-high on the scoring end. He held a juicy 9.7 average depth of target (aDOT) under Richardson but just a 7.6 aDOT under Minshew, so we could see some downfield explosions that finish in the end zone.

All in all, numberFire expects Pittman to finish this season at WR26. That would be a very underwhelming conclusion for someone who is currently being drafted at pick 30 with a 19.3 ADP at wide receiver.

Pittman's proven durability and consistency hold upside in season-long fantasy. But even as the top dog in Indy's wide receiver room, Pittman's fantasy ceiling is hindered by Richardson, so we shouldn't be surprised to see him fall short of the expectations brought on by an early-round ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.