Fantasy Football: Will Rachaad White Fall Short of Expectations?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the least efficient group on the ground last season, averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt. That didn't stop Rachaad White from having a monster fantasy season, grabbing an unforeseen top-10 finish at running back.

There's been a few notable changes to Tampa Bay's camp, some that could hurt White and some that could help. Last season, he had the volume but didn't have the stats to reflect the workload.

Will White's inefficiency catch up with him, or could he be primed for another huge fantasy season? Let's examine his outlook.

Rachaad White Fantasy Football Outlook

White's Questionable Success in 2023

Heading into the 2023-2024 season, White held a 26.3 average draft position (ADP) at running back and was being taken off the board at pick 70.

He returned the favor to doting fantasy football managers, securing an RB7 finish by the season's end.

Through a full 17-game, White rushed for 990 yards and 6 touchdowns. He played a major role in the passing game, securing 549 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It was an awesome season for the then-sophomore back, but we've gotta call him on the carpet regarding his efficiency.

White saw 272 carries (tied for 2nd-most in the NFL) but managed just 990 yards (14th). Ouch. He averaged 3.7 YPA in his rookie season and just 3.6 YPA last season. If that's the benchmark, we have a problem.

White was privy to a fully healthy 17-game season, notched the second-most attempts at running back, and grabbed the fourth-most receptions at the position. It's no wonder he nabbed an RB7 standing, and we'd be fair to conclude that other backs across the league could have gotten more done with that workload.

In reality, White finished just 14th in fantasy points per game at the position. There are some positive takeaways with White regarding durability and volume, but if either of these aspects is made vulnerable this season, we could be looking at a fantasy bust.

Currently, White holds a 13.3 ADP at running back and is being taken at pick 43. Will he make good on this ADP? Let's check out how Tampa Bay is structured heading into the season.

Will White and Tampa Bay Regress?

White has had poor rushing production when put up against the boatload of opportunity, but Tampa Bay has made some improvements to their offensive line. They utilized their first-round draft pick on center Graham Barton and their IOL enters the season ranked 17th, via PFF.

That's still not a great standing, but improvements are improvements, and it could perhaps help the Bucs shed the sting of back-to-back seasons of dead-last ranks in rushing efficiency.

Bucky Irving was selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, placing him behind White on Tampa Bay's depth chart. We probably won't see White manage the second-most carries in the league this go-round, but a more cohesive unit could make up for that in the form of efficiency. White recorded -1.2 touchdowns under expectation last season, but a 60.9% red zone rush share indicates he could be in for more running scores this season.

White's role in the passing game draws the most intrigue, but we can't realistically expect him to notch more receiving scores (3) than Chris Godwin (2) again when the latter was afforded 60 more targets than the former.

Baker Mayfield is off the heels of an explosive season and found success with White, but Mayfield has been marred with inconsistencies and is in no way a shoo-in to juice White for similar production this season -- especially with Dave Canales now coaching the Carolina Panthers.

White could be primed for more efficiency and scores on the ground, but he managed 549 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air last year, good for the fourth-most receptions and the seventh-most targets at the position. This feat might not be able to repeat itself and even in the face of it, White still put up just the 14th-most points per game at running back.

Rachaad White Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections expect White to garner 1,107.79 yards and 7.34 touchdowns via 283.0 carries in a full 17-game season, a slight uptick from last year's rushing numbers.

So, we could expect the offensive line additions to help White play with a bit more efficiency. However, numberFire is expecting a notable drawback for White in the passing game. They have him set to record just 357.22 yards and 2.44 receiving touchdowns.

All in all, these projections stamp White as RB16, whereas his current ADP has him as RB13 at pick 43.

White has yet to miss a game in his two-year NFL career. His durability and exciting volume are what has him on our radar. But, we need to weigh the positives with the negatives. The jury is still out on whether White and Tampa Bay can emerge from those poor efficiency marks. If they fail to do this and White sees less important work in the receiving game, then it's hard to picture him faring any better than his aforementioned 14th rank in fantasy points per game.

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