Fantasy Football: Will Josh Jacobs Have a Bounce-Back Year in Green Bay?

If you were seeking fantasy football production in the 2023-2024 NFL season, the Las Vegas Raiders weren't exactly top of mind.

The Jimmy Garoppolo experiment turned to dust after he was benched in favor of Aidan O'Connell, who didn't impart much on the Raiders' lost offensive group.

Josh Jacobs was a victim of this system, having a career-worst year and in turn spoiling fantasy football teams.

But Jacobs looks primed to turn a new leaf in the upcoming season. He signed a four-year, $48 million deal with the Green Bay Packers and should rebound alongside one of the most booming offenses in the league.

How should fantasy football managers approach Jacobs this season?

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Outlook

Jacobs by the Years

The former Raider was the first running back to be taken off the board in the 2019 NFL draft and the only player at his position to be selected in the first round.

Expectations were immediately high for the rookie, as Jacobs owned a 19.3 average draft position (ADP) at running back and 35 overall ADP, per FantasyPros.

He made good on this status, finishing his freshman campaign at RB18 despite playing just 13 games. In fact, Jacobs has been known for meeting or exceeding preseason fantasy expectations.

Here's a look at his ADP at running back in his first four seasons: 19.3, 8.8, 16.0, and 23.0. Now here's a glance at where he finished in these years: RB18, RB8, RB14, and RB3.

Off the heels of an RB3 year, his stock was high heading into the 2023-2024 season, holding a 9.3 ADP at running back with the 15th overall pick.

However, last season resulted in just 233 carries (second-fewest of his career), 805 rush yards (fewest), and 6 touchdowns (fewest) for Jacobs.

Without taking all of the blame off of Jacobs, I don't think we can downplay how much the muddled Vegas system -- poorly helmed by the since-fired Josh McDaniels -- played a role in his inefficiency.

The Raiders averaged just 2.8 red zone scoring attempts per game (8th-fewest) and ran the ball on only 40.89% of plays (12th-fewest). Jacobs also missed out on the final four games of the regular season due to a quad injury.

The 26-year-old led all rushers with 1,653 yards in the 2022-2023 season. He enters the upcoming season with a 12.0 ADP at the position and is being selected 39th overall in fantasy drafts.

New Life in Green Bay

By inking Jacobs to a four-year contract and releasing Aaron Jones, the Packers have shown a proven investment in the former.

Jordan Love and the bevy of intriguing receiving options in Green Bay showed out with 23.8 points per game (eighth-most) last year and look primed to juice Jacobs for a return on their investment. Fantasy managers could expect the same from the undervalued running back.

Last year, the Pack averaged 3.8 red zone scoring attempts per game (3rd-most) and ran the ball on 42.98% of plays (14th-highest).

A.J. Dillon is still around for Green Bay, but Matt LaFleur has said that he views Jacobs as a "high-volume back."

A high-volume back who led all rushers in yards just one season ago and will now be entrenched in a high-scoring offense? Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

While Jacobs averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per attempt last season, he was misused in an offense that could never piece anything together. He still has youth on his side and will now be ingrained in the best offense of his career, so we should not let the memories of last season sour us too much on Jacobs.

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's projections expect Jacobs to log 1,121.98 yards and 9.65 touchdowns on the ground -- as well as 339.70 yards and 2.35 touchdowns on the receiving end -- in his first season with Green Bay. These projections assume that Jacobs will play a full 17-game season.

Based on this, numberFire has Jacobs finishing as RB9 this year.

FanDuel Sportsbook has high hopes for Jacobs, too. He currently has the 8th-shortest odds (+2100) to lead the NFL in rushing yards and the 11th-shortest odds (+2300) among running backs to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

As mentioned, FantasyPros' consensus ADP data has Jacobs being taken as RB12 at pick 39.

Notably, numberFire's projections expect him to outdo Travis Etienne (pick 24),Isiah Pacheco (pick 37), and De'Von Achane (pick 21), all of whom are currently being selected ahead of Jacobs in drafts.

Jacobs is a value pick at his current spot on the draft board and should be given consideration over those aforementioned backs. We'll see just how much the Raiders of it all truly impacted Jacobs last season, but he looks to have exciting days ahead in Green Bay.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.