Fantasy Football: Will Jordan Love Build Upon a Breakout 2023 Season?

Jordan Love's first full season as a starter for the Green Bay Packers went about as smoothly as any of us could have anticipated.

While a 3-6 start got the Pack off to rocky beginnings, Love and company had the turnaround of all turnarounds in Week 9.

From Week 9 and on, Green Bay went 7-3, including big wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions. Love posted 2,667 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in that 10-game span.

A stampeding Wild Card victory over the Dallas Cowboys further put Love on the map. He recorded 272 yards and 3 touchdowns on a 76.2% completion rate in that victory.

Consequently, Love's fantasy football draft stock for the upcoming season has skyrocketed. Can he outdo lofty expectations? Let's check out his outlook for the 2024-2025 season.

Jordan Love Fantasy Football Outlook

Love's Breakout 2023 Campaign

Fantasy football managers were understandably hesitant about Love's ability to fill the shoes left behind by Aaron Rodgers.

Heading into his first season as the full-time guy under center, Love held an average draft position (ADP) of 26 at quarterback. The return on investment was amazing.

All in all, Love logged 4,159 yards (seventh-most in NFL), 32 touchdowns (second-most), and 11 interceptions (fifth-fewest among QBs who threw at least 500 attempts). He also gained 247 yards on the ground and ran in 4 touchdowns.

These numbers were good for a QB5 finish. Not only did Love notch the fifth-most fantasy points at the position, but he also ranked sixth in points per game.

A QB26 draft status to a QB5 finish was quite the jump. We won't see that degree of return this time around. With fantasy football drafts underway, Love is currently the 8th QB being taken off of boards at pick 63, per FantasyPros' consensus ADP data.

There's a lot working in favor for Love, whose young and deep receiving room provides plenty of upside and flexibility. Butm he's also a top candidate to see some negative regression, which may make him overvalued in fantasy drafts. Let's dive into what the upcoming season could look like for Love.

The Good and the Bad

It takes two to tango, and Love has plenty of receivers to dance with. Green Bay's wide receiver and tight end corps are deep and should make up one of the highest-scoring offenses this season.

Love will also have his feet under him in his sophomore campaign as a starter. Early season struggles were inevitable in 2023, and Green Bay's signal-caller hit a three-game stretch from Week 3 and on where he threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (2). As we know, Love eventually found his groove. If his second-half play is an indication of what we will be in for this season, he should be one of the top-performing fantasy players.

However, the underlying numbers tell us that overperformance was at play last year, and regression could hit Love over the head.

As noted, Love threw for 32 touchdowns (second-most) last season. But he ranked just 14th in yards per pass attempt (7.2), 20th in completion percentage (64.2%), 11th in passer rating, and 14th in passing success rate.

He did rank fifth in EPA per drop, but the other numbers would suggest a sub-32-touchdown season. Love, of course, benefitted from volume, but we'd be hard-pressed to see the same volume this season. Not only did he participate in a full 17-game season, but the Packers also scored a whopping 76.2% of their touchdowns in the air (fourth-most).

Everything was working in Love's favor. He owned a 5.5% touchdown rate, the third-highest behind Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. Given his 14th YPA, 20th completion percentage, and 11th passer rating, it's hard to imagine he can sustain a top-three touchdown rate.

All in all, Love notched 6.1 touchdowns over expectation (via FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula), the second-most in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs joined the Pack this offseason, so we could see very easily see Green Bay run the ball at a higher rate in the red zone.

Love is impressive and helms one of the most fantasy-relevant teams in the league, but we have to keep in mind just how much overperformance was at play last season.

Jordan Love Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's season-long NFL projections expect Love to record 4,337.94 passing yards, 29.56 touchdowns, and 11.63 interceptions this season.

Even assuming a full 17-game season, the projections expect Love to get attacked by the touchdown regression monster.

numberFire also has Love logging 163.61 yards and 1.66 touchdowns on the ground, down from 4 rush scores last season. The Jacobs effect is in play.

With these projections in mind, Love is forecasted to finish the season out as QB10. As mentioned, he is currently being drafted as QB8 at pick 63.

Notably, numberFire has Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray ahead of Love on their season-long projections while both players are currently being drafted behind Love.

This isn't to say we should grow sour on Love. He's entrenched in a fantasy-friendly system on a Green Bay team that touts a 9.5 win total with -138 odds on the over. The Packers' depth means that Love won't be as affected as other QBs if one of his top targets goes down, and Love himself has proven durable in his career.

Green Bay's below-average defense and +195 odds to win the NFC North also mean that the Packers won't be as susceptible to garbage time, so Love is still an awesome prospect in season-long fantasy. However, we have to be cognizant of last year's overperformance and what it could mean for Love this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.