Fantasy Football: Will Alvin Kamara Crack the Top-10 Running Backs?

Alvin Kamara quickly fell down 2023 fantasy football draft boards following the announcement of his three-game suspension prior to the season. His average draft position (ADP) at FantasyPros was RB27 in half-PPR leagues.

A continual drop in scrimmage yards since the 2020 season didn't help Kamara's case either. He went from 1,688 total yards to 1,337 and 1,387. Plus, Kamara was RB18 in 2022 after carrying a RB10 ADP ahead of the season.

In a career-low 13 games played last season, Kamara still finished as RB14, which was 13 spots above his ADP. Will the New Orleans Saints' running back repeat this kind of fantasy football value given an RB17 ADP ahead of the 2024 season?

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Outlook

Receiving Work Spikes in 2023

Kamara's 89.2 scrimmage yards per game in 2023 weren't anything special; he topped the mark in 2022 (92.5) and 2021 (102.8). So, what made the difference for his fantasy value last season?

First off, his touchdowns were up to 0.5 per game compared to 0.3 in 2022. The 2023 mark is still a far cry from some of Kamara's career-best marks -- such as 1.4 in both 2020 and 2021.

An increase in receiving work held most of the weight for Kamara's 2023 improvement. He quickly stacked targets and catches, averaging 6.6 targets and 5.8 receptions per game. This was a huge jump compared to 5.1 targets and 3.8 catches per contest in 2022.

Kamara had not reached these kind of numbers since totaling 7.1 targets and 5.5 receptions game game in 2020. His per-game average of 6.6 targets in 2023 was the third-highest mark of his career and 5.8 catches per contest was a career-high.

According to PlayerProfiler, he had the second-highest target share and seventh-highest route participation among running backs. The advanced stats keep singing praise with Kamara carrying the fourth-most yards per route run, as well.

While the touchdowns were a minor upgrade, the per-game averages for Kamara's receiving work were some of the best of his career. With that in mind, it's difficult to not be excited about his 2024 outlook. What are the chances that this level of production carries over to the upcoming season?

Dominance Through the Air Could Continue

Starting with Kamara's quarterback, Derek Carr had the third-highest running back target share at 22.3%. The two quickly established a connection that should continue into the upcoming season.

It's not like Carr was spamming running backs no matter what. When Kamara was absent, Carr targeted tailbacks on 6.1%, 5.9%, 14.7%, and 16.0% of his throws over four contests. Not one number was close to Carr's 22.3% target share for the season. It's safe to say Kamara has already become one of Carr's favorite options.

After being tied for the sixth-most passing yards per attempt in 2021 (7.7), Carr has been pretty mediocre in the category over his last two seasons, posting 7.0 and 7.1 yards per attempt. Additionally, New Orleans was in the bottom half of yards per passing attempt last season.

Plenty of short-yardage targets should still be available, which are vital for a running back who is looking for regular checkdown catches.

Concerns about the offensive line only suggests even more short-yardage attempts. The unit finished with the fifth-worst pass block win rate in 2023, per ESPN. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has the Saints' O-line ranked as the league's worst unit entering 2024. Carr also had the sixth-quickest time to throw among qualifying players last season.

The opportunity for Kamara to keep dominating the receiving game is certainly there, but what do the projections say?

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Projection

Kamara carries some of the most notable numbers for FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy football projections.

As previously mentioned, he has a RB17 ADP, yet projections have Kamara as RB7. That's right -- 10 spots over his ADP!

Overall, Kamara is screaming value for the 2024 fantasy season. He looks to be headed for more exceptional receiving stats, carrying projected numbers of 5.9 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 28.8 receiving yards per game. That's still pretty far behind last season's 6.6 targets, 5.8 catches, and 35.8 receiving yards per game.

Yet, the Saints' situation with a poor offensive line paired with the tandem of Carr and Kamara suggests the halfback could come up with similar numbers in the passing game. Projections expect a decline for Kamara's receiving work, but it still has him as a top-10 fantasy RB.

His forecasted stats have Kamara improving in the rushing game, totaling 59.1 yards per game compared to 2023's 53.4. This was a career-low as a starter, for Kamara averaged at least 58.0 rushing yards per game in four of five seasons from 2018 to 2022.

Efficiency is a concern, though; Kamara posted -0.55 rushing yards over expectation per carry in 2023. The carries should be present -- as the projected 14.5 carries per game suggests -- but the efficiency could be missing. Putting up 4.1 yards per carry seems too positive considering his marks of 3.9, 4.0, and 3.7 over the previous three seasons.

Perhaps undermining Kamara's receiving game while being too positive for the run game can offset each other, leading to great fantasy valu regardless

His forecasted 0.6 touchdowns per game isn't outlandish either. Kamara led the team with a 50.7% red zone rushing attempt margin while topping the squad with a 40.0% share within the five-yard line. He even touted the third-highest red zone target share at 17.0%. Reaching only 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game last season seemed a bit unfortunate, yet increasing his touchdown rate seems imminent.

Kamara's value could come down to one simple idea. He was RB14 in 13 games last season. If he can finish this high while missing four games, why can't he finish above his RB17 ADP in 2024?

He posted the fifth-most fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues last season. If Kamara can carry over last season's per-game production -- which looks quite likely -- we could be looking at a top-10 fantasy tailback.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.