Fantasy Football: Which Titans Running Back Should You Target?

The Tennessee Titans are entering a new era in their backfield following the departure of Derrick Henry, who inked a two-year, $16 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens.

In reaction, the Titans snagged Tony Pollard in free agency, agreeing to a three-year, $21.75 million deal. Tyjae Spears is also a holdover from the 2023 season as a promising third-round talent from the 2023 NFL Draft.

When it comes to fantasy football, this is one of several backfields that will likely be "by committee" in 2024. According to FantasyPros, Pollard has an average draft position (ADP) of RB28 versus Spears at RB33.

This is about as tight as it gets for a split backfield. Let's look at both running backs and circle who could be the best value for the upcoming fantasy season.

Tennessee Titans RBs Fantasy Football Outlook

Tony Pollard's Outlook

If the 2023 season has any say in this Pollard's stock, it's screaming fade.

After finishing as RB7 in a split backfield in 2022, Pollard was the head honcho entering 2023, leading to his RB7 ADP. He ended up RB15 in 2023, seeing his fantasy points drop by over 30 points from 2022.

Advanced stats show a clear decline in Pollard's play. For example, he totaled the most yards after contact per carry among backs with at least 100 touts in 2022. Pollard would finish outside the top 40 in the category last season -- ouch.

Across the board, 2023 was a season to forget. Based on Brandon Gdula's expected FanDuel Points (FDP) model, Pollard had the third-worst mark with -2.1 expected FDP vs. FDP among qualifying players.

Simply put, Pollard had his chance to be a workhorse with the Dallas Cowboys last season. This reason alone is a sound case as to why Pollard will be in a split backfield. His best numbers came when sharing carries, and he faltered when taking on a large workload.

numberFire's fantasy football projections are also expecting a clear drop in Pollard's usage. Last year, the former Memphis Tiger had 252 carries and 55 receptions, good for 307 touches. His projections are set at 208 carries and 28 catches -- which would be 71 fewer touches than in 2023.

With that said, let's look at Pollard's running mate.

Tyjae Spears' Outlook

Spears came into the 2023 season with promise, but his role was going to be limited with Derrick Henry present. It was with good reason as Henry finished with 2.0 xFDP vs. FDP compared to Spears' -0.7 mark.

This suggests that Spears didn't contribute much, but that's far from the case. In his rookie year, he had a pair of top-10 weekly finishes and reached over 14.0 points in 3 of 17 games.

Spears' receiving game is what makes him valuable, especially for any points per reception (PPR) league. He caught 52 receptions compared to 100 carries in his rookie season.

However, numberFire has Spears with 26 projected receptions -- just 2 behind Pollard's total. This would be quite a surprise when you dive into the advanced stats.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Spears had a top-10 receiving grade (74.6) while recording the 2nd-most missed tackles forced per reception and the 11th-most yards after contact per reception among backs.

We also saw some chemistry between Spears and Will Levis in 2023. Spears had his best receiving game with Levis starting in Week 13, recording 6 receptions and 89 receiving yards on 8 targets.

Even with Henry in the backfield, Spears still managed to reach 838 scrimmage yards. PFF also credited Spears with a top-five mark in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

Spears is projected with 189 carries and 26 catches, a total of 215 touches. That's far above last year's 152 touches. Still, his receptions being half of last season's mark would be interesting to say the least.

Which Titans RB is the Best Option?

As you can probably tell at this point, the best value in this backfield could be Spears.

This is likely a split backfield no matter what. Pollard hasn't shown the ability to carry the load, and Spears is simply too talented to keep off of the field.

The Titans wouldn't sign Pollard to a $21.75 million contract to not play him, meaning it's also unlikely that Spears will separate himself.

Spears is carrying a higher ADP, and his projected receptions seem too low. He's RB33 while Pollard is RB28. numberFire's projections have Pollard finishing as RB26 while Spears is RB34.

For the most part, the ADP and projections are in agreement. However, the projections for Spears' receiving numbers still seem a little out of wack.

Of course, Pollard is 10x the receiver that Henry is. Therefore, Spears receiving totals will likely drop -- but by half? I'm not sure about that, especially when the second-year back has a better rapport with Levis.

What about Spears' age, as well? He's 23 and going into his second season, and Pollard is 27 headed for his sixth campaign. We consistently see running backs fall off quicker than flipping a light switch. Think Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, or Dalvin Cook; no one is safe.

Pollard comes off a disappointing season and is on a new team. Meanwhile, Spears' stock has been rising since an impressive rookie season.

The formula is present for Spears to be the best running back out of Tennessee's backfield. His later ADP makes the pick only more enticing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.