Fantasy Football: Which Teams Will Score Fewer Points in 2024?

The time for sunshine and roses is over, friends.

Let's get grim.

Last week, we ran through the NFL teams expected to receive the biggest increases in scoring this year, based on my model's season-long point projections.

Somebody's gotta see a decrease, though. Today, we'll run through that list, outlining teams that are due to see some scoring regression entering 2024 and discussing what it means for the fantasy outlook of players in those offenses.

Here are the five teams my model expects to see the biggest downticks in scoring from where they were a season ago.

Biggest NFL Offensive Downgrades

Dallas Cowboys

2023 Points: 509 | 2024 Projected Points: 429.2

Although the Dallas Cowboys lead this list, they may not be here for the most obvious reason. And I'm still bullish on them entering the year despite agreeing with what the model says.

The talking point around the Cowboys here will be their offseason departures. They lost numerous key free agents, dinging the depth on both sides of the ball.

That's part of the reason they're projected to decrease, and it's why sentiment is down on them entering the year.

But the bigger reason for the decrease is that they're just due for natural regression, especially on defense.

The Cowboys led the league last year with six defensive touchdowns. Two teams had none, and only three other teams had more than three. Even if the offense had better talent entering the year, you'd likely project a slight downtick in scoring as a result of this.

That also means the offense itself may not trend down too dramatically, and that's the key focal point for us when trying to avoid regression in fantasy football.

As a result, I'm pretty receptive to Dak Prescott as the QB9 in FantasyPros' half-point-per-reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP) data.

Prescott finished last year as the QB4 in points per game (among those who started at least half the season). That was despite his scoring just two rushing touchdowns on 13 red-zone attempts, a number that could increase this year. They added key pieces to replace losses along the offensive line, and the lone departed pass-catcher is Michael Gallup, who was losing snaps to Jalen Tolbert down the stretch, anyway.

Dallas sits seventh in projected points for me this year, so this will still be a high-powered offense, and their backfield hints at a pass-heavy approach. Thus, even with a scoring downturn likely coming, I still think Prescott is a value at his current slot.

Miami Dolphins

2023 Points: 496 | 2024 Projected Points: 416.4

The Miami Dolphins have some overlap with the Cowboys. They had four defensive return touchdowns last year, tied for third most in the league.

The concerns here run a smidge deeper, though, making me a bit more hesitant with this offense entering the season.

The big hangup for me is that the Dolphins didn't do a ton to address their key weaknesses on offense: pass-catching depth and offensive line.

The lone addition to the receiver room (other than late-round draft picks) was Odell Beckham, who played limited snaps with another team that could have used depth at pass-catcher last year in the Baltimore Ravens. That gives the Dolphins plenty of downside should either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle miss time.

Along the offensive line, they added Aaron Brewer at center but lost guard Robert Hunt in a big-money deal to the Carolina Panthers. The projected starters on their left side have missed a combined 28 games the past two years due to injury. Mike McDaniel does a great job navigating around a poor offensive line, but at some point, it'd be great if he didn't have to do so.

This won't bother me too much with Hill and Waddle, but it's tougher to get jazzed about De'Von Achane (RB10, pick 22) and Tua Tagovailoa (QB12, pick 99) at their current slots. Achane is going between Drake London and Isiah Pacheco, who are both on offenses expected to score more this year.

Tagovailoa is going ahead of Jared Goff -- whose offense is projected to score 31 more points this year -- and players like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, who could add value with their legs.

We don't need to totally bail on an offense that looked like a juggernaut at times last year, but it's fine to be a bit skeptical of some pieces within it when the cost is so high.

Cleveland Browns

2023 Points: 396 | 2024 Projected Points: 328.1

It's very possible I'm too low on the Cleveland Browns' offense this year. They averaged 26.6 points per game in Deshaun Watson's full games last year, and I'm projecting them at just 19.3 per game in 2023.

A couple factors keep me from deviating too far from what the model expects, though.

First, the Browns will face a rough slate of defenses. In addition to facing the AFC North, they've got games against other projected top-10 defenses in the Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Kansas City Chiefs. In all, the Browns will face a projected top-10 defense in 7 of 17 games.

Second, they have only two indoor games on the schedule. Wind plays a big role in my model, so getting minimal reprieve does ding them.

Third, it's just hard to get too high on an offense with Watson at the helm. Even with the higher scoring outputs in games Watson was healthy, he still averaged -0.08 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. This is numberFire's expected points model, which includes deductions for expected points lost on sacks and interceptions. Watson ranked just 36th here out of 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs.

Luckily for us, this skepticism is baked into the market. No Browns players are going within the top 50 picks, and just three are going in the top 100.

That could allow you to buy into the volatility and stack pieces of the offense, if you're so inclined. There's a scenario where Watson returns to his old form, and if he does, everyone here could wind up being a value. You just have to know going in that doing so comes with massive risk once you consider all the factors working against them coming into the year.

Baltimore Ravens

2023 Points: 483 | 2024 Projected Points: 429.6

The Baltimore Ravens have several of the issues laid out above also working against them with a tough slate of defenses and only three indoor games. But they also have some key issues up front.

The Ravens have to replace three starters along the offensive line, meaning it may take them a while to get cohesion along the unit. Several of the new starters have been with the team for a bit, but as is typically the case, they weren't previously starters for a reason. The talent there is lesser than it used to be.

That's why I'm fine being lower than market on Derrick Henry. Henry -- the RB9 and 19th pick overall -- should form a formidable backfield duo with Lamar Jackson. But he doesn't catch passes (which hurts his outlook dramatically, even in half PPR) and is on the wrong side of 30.

Henry checks in as the RB13 in numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections despite being projected for the fourth most rushing touchdowns among running backs. You're basically baking on a repeat output from the Ravens' offense this year for Henry to pay off his draft slot, and my model says that's a tough bet to make.

Denver Broncos

2023 Points: 357 | 2024 Projected Points: 320.2

The big thing working against the Denver Broncos is that they're likely to start a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix and were limited in free agency due to Russell Wilson's gaudy dead cap hit. They seem to have accepted the fact they'll take a step back this year, which is probably the best path they could have taken.

But the schedule does them no favors.

In addition to facing the Chiefs' and Las Vegas Raiders' tough defenses in-division, they get to face all four AFC North teams plus the Saints out of division. They have 7 games against top-10 defenses and 11 against defenses projected to rank in the top half of the league.

Similar to the Ravens, the Broncos have just three indoor games, as well. It's a rough setup.

That's how you get a scoring decrease out of a team that was just 19th in scoring last year. They're now projected to score just the second most points this year, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers.

That mutes enthusiasm around everyone tied to this offense. Unlike with the Browns, we don't even get the concentrated market shares we're likely to see with Amari Cooper and David Njoku. There were only two instances last year where a Broncos player had double-digit targets in a game.

I'm fine fading this offense entirely, even at reasonable costs. If I get burned by pretending the projected 31st-ranked offense doesn't exist, then so be it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.