Fantasy Football: What Should You Expect From Derek Carr in New Orleans?

This coming season is the official start of a new era for Derek Carr. After nine years as Raider Nation's signal-caller, he departs as the all-time franchise leader in completions, passing yards and touchdowns.

Carr will still be suited in black this year, but he will be exchanging the silver for gold. Joining a slew of talented players on the New Orleans Saints, Carr is looking to achieve the next level of success in The Big Easy.

In terms of fantasy football production, Carr isn't the first quarterback who comes to mind. A lack of rushing ability casts him into the lower tier of signal-callers for 2023. But up until 2022, Carr had thrown for north of 4,000 passing yards in four consecutive seasons.

Now in New Orleans, can he better utilize a dynamic skill group en route to a bigger fantasy year?

Derek Carr 2023 Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire.)

Fantasy Points: 252 (233 in 2022)
Ranking: QB25
Stats:

• 356 completions on 539 passing attempts (66% completion rate)
• 4,104 passing yards
• 23.7 touchdown passes
• 11.9 interceptions
• 157 rushing yards
• 1.3 rushing touchdowns

Derek Carr Fantasy Football Outlook

Through 15 starts in 2022, Carr wound up ranked 17th of all quarterbacks by producing 233 FanDuel points. Keep in mind: Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels benched Carr for the final two weeks of last season -- whether the benching was for poor play or a contractual injury clause was unclear.

Which way will DC4 trend in a fresh situation in 2023?

The Fit in New Orleans

Along with recent versions of the New York Jets and Denver Broncos, the Saints are one of those franchises that are considered to be "just a quarterback away" from legit contention. Like those two organizations have done in recent years, the Saints have made an aggressive move to try to land that franchise QB.

We do see some respect from oddsmakers for the Saints to win the NFC, with New Orleans at +1700 (seventh-best) in the market, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Truthfully, with a well-rounded defense and a talented cast of offensive playmakers, Carr has an opportunity to go further than he ever has.

Of course, it is the running back, receiver and tight end groupings in New Orleans that will most directly contribute to Carr's fantasy production. According to numberFire's projections, the Saints have two players inside the top-45 fantasy rankings in Alvin Kamara (43) and Chris Olave (45).

Additionally, New Orleans is on track to feature a healthy Michael Thomas this year. Despite missing all but three contests in 2022 due to a toe injury, Thomas can still be a dangerous possession receiver. Keep in mind, he is only three years removed from setting the all-time NFL single-season reception mark with 149 catches.

In short, there are a lot of quality weapons around Carr.

Carr will be the biggest change in 2023 for the Saints. Since Drew Brees' departure after the 2020 season, New Orleans has been subject to suspect quarterback play. Neither Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton nor Taysom Hill were able to produce consistent results from the position.

Carr also stands to benefit from a great schedule. Thanks to the blah NFC South, New Orleans owns the NFL's easiest schedule going by 2023 win totals.

Opportunity Cost: Where Is Carr Being Drafted?

Per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, Carr's ADP is 121.5 while being ranked as the QB19 in one-quarterback formats. That puts him in streamer territory. He's way more fantasy relevant in best-ball and two-QB formats, and Carr is being taken as the QB20 (209th overall) in FanDuel's best-ball leagues.

Considering his situation in NOLA, Carr is absolutely worth the risk as a midrange QB2 option in two-quarterback formats. He has various security-blanket-type targets on offense and could benefit greatly from getting the football to playmakers such as Olave and Kamara in space.

Final Verdict

Carr produced one of his most inaccurate seasons on record in 2022, allowing his completion clip to dwindle down to 60.8%; his rookie campaign is the only year where he was worse in that department.

Still, Carr has tossed the rock for over 4,000 yards in four of the past five seasons. With Carr in New Orleans, I truly believe he is entering his most quarterback-friendly situation to date. Carr is surrounded with talent on offense, and the unit will also receive an added speed benefit from playing home games on the Superdome's fast surface.

Given his lack of running ability, Carr doesn't have top-notch upside, which is why his ADP is where it is. But in two-quarterback formats, he could prove to be a solid value. Should he fall to you in the latter rounds after you've already grabbed a QB1 and built an impressive array of playmakers, you can feel good about using a selection on him.

In one-QB leagues, Carr fits best as a serviceable streamer who can come through in good matchups. The Saints open with two of those -- at home against the Tennessee Titans and on the road at the Carolina Panthers -- so Carr is worth having on your radar early in 2023 if you like to stream the position.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.