Fantasy Football: Tyreek Hill Has a Chance to Break Records in 2023

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill was on pace to break records during the first half of the 2022 NFL season.

Will he be able to pick up where he left off as one of fantasy football’s premiere wide receivers in 2023?

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

Tyreek Hill Overview

2022 Fantasy Points: 222.2

2023 Projected Fantasy Points: 217

2023 numberFire Ranking: WR3

2023 Projections:

• 163.4 targets
• 107.2 receptions
• 1,453 receiving yards
• 10.4 receiving touchdowns

Tyreek Hill Outlook

2022 Recap

You would ordinarily expect a wide receiver to take a hit to his production after he stops playing with the best quarterback in the league. You definitely would not expect a receiver to nearly lead the league in receiving yards with his new team, either. But that’s pretty much what Tyreek Hill did in 2022.

During the 2022 offseason the Kansas City Chiefs traded Hill to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks. People expected Hill’s production to take a nosedive given the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Instead, Hill set personal bests in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710) while catching 7 touchdowns for the ‘Phins.

His production could have reached even greater heights in Miami were it not for the unfortunate injuries sustained by Tagovailoa during the season. The third-year quarterback suffered multiple head injuries during the season that caused him to miss several games, which caused Hill’s production to take a hit. If Tagovailoa had been able to play for an entire season, Hill could have pushed to challenge Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record (1,964).

Running it Back in Miami

The Dolphins didn’t make any sweeping changes to their passing offense for the upcoming season. They allowed tight end Mike Gesicki, who was not a true stylistic fit for head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense, and wide receiver Trent Sherfield, who was their third-most productive receiver, to leave in free agency but didn’t make any other big changes to their passing offense in free agency or via the draft. They’ll be returning all five starters on their offensive line for the upcoming season, as well. That should help keep Tagovailoa upright as long as they all stay healthy.

That means that what we saw for Hill in 2022 might actually be representative of his baseline in the Dolphins’ offense and not just a fluke. The Dolphins will have one of the more consolidated passing offenses in the league again this year which could skew even more looks in Hill’s direction. Sherfield and Gesicki, while not hugely productive in 2022, combined for 62 catches, 779 yards, and 7 touchdowns.

We can’t project Hill to simply absorb Sherfield’s and Gesicki’s production from a season ago, but their absences do essentially guarantee that Hill will be the first read more often than not when Tagovailoa drops back to pass.

Divvying Up the Dolphins’ Target Share

When McDaniel came to Miami from the San Francisco 49ers, the offense he installed from the get go – “get the ball to our fastest players” -- has worked. It sounds like a simple strategy, but it was one the team used with incredible efficiency and success during the 2022 season.

Their success with that tactic stemmed from the elite skill sets and explosive playmaking abilities that both Hill and teammate Jaylen Waddle provided. Together, Hill and Waddle combined for 52.7% of the team’s receptions, 64.3% of their total receiving yards, and 50.0% of the team’s receiving touchdowns.

These were insanely strong market share numbers from Hill and Waddle. The Dolphins knew they had two of the most explosive wide receivers in the league and put the ball in their hands as often as they could. Defenses knew the ball was going to Hill and Waddle but were mostly helpless to stop them.

McDaniel kept things from getting stale or predictable by moving his two stars around the formation and targeting them all over the field. Hill was especially featured all over the field, seeing 55 targets in the short game, 56 at the intermediate level of the field, and 38 targets on deep passes (most in the NFL). Defenses couldn’t key in on Hill due to that kind of usage -- especially not with Waddle across the field from him.

In other words, we can confidently project the Dolphins’ offense to continue running through Hill and Waddle in 2023, and we likely won’t have to worry about defenses “figuring out” the Dolphins’ offense because of how variably they deploy their playmakers. It’s wheels up for the Dolphins.

Miami in 2023

According to Sharp Football Anaylsis’ strength of schedule metric, the Dolphins are slated to face the third-toughest schedule of opponents in the league in 2023. In addition to their own brutal division, which will feature tough matchups against playoff favorites like the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, they’ll also draw rough pairings against the AFC West and the NFC East.

Fans of the Dolphins franchise might sweat those matchups, but they could actually mean great things for their passing numbers. Competitive, high-scoring games don’t allow teams to take their feet off the gas pedals, meaning the Dolphins won’t be in too many games where they’re trying to whittle away the clock in the fourth quarter. Against strong teams, the Dolphins are going to be racing to put points up on the scoreboards.

This should add yet another element that ensures Hill will have one of the highest floors in the league among all receivers. There’s really nothing standing in his way to another 150-target season.

Hill is numberFire’s WR3 for fantasy football for the upcoming season with only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase having higher points projections at this point. He has one of the safest floors in the league as well as one of the highest ceilings. The Dolphins’ offense is too explosive to suppress as long as they get competent play from the quarterback position, and the return of all five starting offensive linemen should help keep Tua Tagovailoa healthier than he was in 2022.

Hill has a realistic chance of finishing as fantasy's WR1 and, if things break right, he could even challenge Calvin Johnson’s single season receiving yards record in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.