Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

After a low-scoring Week 1 (41.3 points per game) and a high-scoring Week 2 (49.8), Week 3 found a middle ground with games averaging 46.3 total points.

Still, pace of play quickened for the third consecutive week, even with Week 3 proving to be more run heavy.

What does that mean for Week 4?

That's to be determined. More plays mean more potential fantasy points across the board, and we can now begin to spot some usage-related trends with three weeks of data to work off. And while Week 4 lacks a signature shootout based on the totals at FanDuel Sportsbook, we have 11 of the slate's 16 games showing an over/under north of 44 points leading into Thursday Night Football. Top-to-bottom, that's good for fantasy.

In terms of making Week 4 start or sit decisions, FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections serve as a solid baseline. But when we pair those projections with some recent historical data, even further lines can be drawn. From there, factors like game environment, strength of opponent, and the latest news can help shape our start/sit decisions.

That's what I'll be doing each and every week, combining our projections and historical trends to decipher how likely a player is to deliver a start-worthy performance (Start%).

Below, you'll find every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers. These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

Here is the Week 4 fantasy football start/sit.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

Quarterback

Start

Jordan Love (GB)
Jordan Love has yet to finish as a top-12 quarterback this season, and he's only once cleared 200 passing yards. Even so, the Packers boast the No. 7 schedule-adjusted passing offense with Love posting the seventh highest EPA per dropback and ranking fourth in yards per attempt. He's yet to play indoors or face one of the league's true cupcake secondaries -- both of which will change in Week 4. This week, Love draws a Cowboys defense which has given up 24.3, 31.3, and 29.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks across the first three games. All three starters Dallas has gone up against posted at least a 0.25 EPA per dropback against the Cowboys' zone-heavy scheme, so Love is set up well for fantasy.

Geno Smith (LV)
The first three weeks of Geno Smith's Raiders tenure has been a roller coaster. He's finished (in order) QB15, QB31, and QB4 -- good for the overall QB12 heading into Week 4. Still, last week's 26.1-point performance is hard to ignore. Geno threw for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 29 pass attempts -- though a 61-yard touchdown in garbage time certainly inflated his final tally. Still, it was the second time in two weeks Smith hit 10 yards per attempt (Y/A), and now he draws a Chicago defense allowing the sixth most Y/A in football. They're also bottom-five in pressure rate -- something to keep in mind with Smith having faced pressure at the sixth highest rate to this point. With more time to throw against the softest secondary he's faced all year, Geno's a low-end QB1 in Week 4,

Sit

Dak Prescott (DAL)
After a strong Week 2, Dak Prescott didn't do much despite a solid matchup last week -- though losing top target CeeDee Lamb (ankle) early in the first quarter didn't help his cause. With Lamb expected to miss the next few weeks, it's going to be difficult to trust Dak in fantasy. That's especially true in Week 4 with the Packers traveling to Dallas fresh off their first loss of the season. You can't fault the Green Bay defense for their Week 3 loss, and they've largely looked like one of the best units in football early on. Through three games, the Packers rank third in adjusted pass defense and have held opposing quarterbacks to the fewest fantasy points per dropback and yards per attempt. Given the Pack's fearsome pass rush, I don't have much confidence in Prescott behind an offensive line with PFF's 31st-ranked pass blocking grade through three weeks. Without rushing upside, Dak's just another QB2 in Week 4.

Kyler Murray (ARI)
Though Kyler Murray has recorded at least 6 rush attempts and 30 yards on the ground in each of his first three games, he's topped out at 18.3 fantasy points to this point -- and that came back in Week 1. He's cracked 30 pass attempts just once despite the Cardinals ranking top 10 in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) as they're bottom 10 in adjusted pace early on. And while Thursday's date with Seattle is a pace-up spot, that's about all there is to like about this matchup. The Seahawks have a top 10 defense by numberFire's scheduled-adjusted metrics, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to the fifth fewest fantasy points per dropback. Even so, the biggest drawback with this Week 4 matchup is Seattle's pass rush. They're fourth in pressure rate three games into the season, and while they haven't faced the most daunting quarterback gauntlet, that's a concern given how little pressure Kyler's had to deal behind PFF's No. 4 pass blocking offensive line. Maybe the line holds up at home, but Murray hasn't shown much fantasy upside even from a clean pocket in 2025. There are just too many good fantasy quarterbacks to start Kyler in Week 4.

Running Back

Start

Trey Benson (ARI)
With James Conner (ankle) out for the season, second-year running back Trey Benson is set to take on the lion's share of Arizona's backfield opportunities. Though Benson has a sub-50% snap rate through three games, he's finished as the RB36 or better every week and has flashed in limited work. He's third in rushing yards over expectation per carry and seventh in rushing yards after contact per attempt (via PFF) while his 6.0 yards per carry speaks for itself. On top of that, Benson has seen 10 targets over the last two games, hinting at all-around upside in an expanded role. A former second round pick, the Cardinals reportedly have full confidence in Benson -- so should fantasy managers. Even against Seattle's third-ranked rushing defense, Benson should see enough volume to warrant a starting spot in Week 4.

Quinshon Judkins (CLE)
It didn't take long for Quinshon Judkins to take hold of this Browns backfield. After amassing 71 yards and 8.6 fantasy points on just 19 snaps in his Week 2 debut, Judkins went for 16 fantasy points off 95 scrimmage yards in Week 3. He easily led Cleveland running backs with a 58% snap rate, and he saw all four of their red zone rush attempts. I still question Judkins' true upside without much of a pass-catching role (21% route participation and 6.8% target share), but Nick Chubb didn't need much receiving volume to be a fantasy star in this offense. Judkins isn't Chubb, but it's hard not to make that comparison given the workload. The only thing keeping Judkins from must-start range is a tough date with Detroit, though Judkins' expected volume still warrants a spot in your starting lineup.

TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Things change quickly in the NFL -- just look at the Patriots' backfield. A week after Rhamondre Stevenson popped for 142 yards and rookie TreVeyon Henderson was limited to a 29% snap rate, it was the rookie who led New England running backs in snaps (48%) and adjusted opportunities (17 carries plus 2x targets) in Week 3. That can likely be attributed to Stevenson and Antonio Gibson accounting for three lost fumbles -- after which, Henderson's snap count exploded. He's likely never going to be a 20-carry back, but Henderson's work in the passing game (25% target per route rate) offers plenty to get excited about if he's the lead RB. I'm bullish last week's second-half role was a taste of what's to come, and that would give TreVeyon flex appeal ahead of Week 4's date with Carolina -- the 26th-ranked rushing defense.

Sit

Chase Brown (CIN)
Joe Burrow's absence hasn't just hurt Cincinatti's pass catchers -- it's also cratered Chase Brown's fantasy value. Brown wasn't great in Burrow's lone full game (12.1 fantasy points) but he's since finished as the RB34 and RB49. His snap rate fell to 56% in last week's blowout loss, and even an encouraging 19% target share couldn't propel him to a flex-worthy performance. Brown has again struggled with rushing efficiency this season -- his 25.5% Rushing Success Rate is the lowest among starting backs -- but now there's considerably less touchdown upside. Against Denver's seventh-ranked rushing defense and with the Bengals showing Week 4's fourth-lowest implied total (18), Brown doesn't have the floor or ceiling to warrant starting in 10-team leagues. He's merely a flex option in deeper formats.

Alvin Kamara (NO)
Alvin Kamara has gotten by with stellar volume the past two seasons, but even that may not save him on this Saints team. Kamara posted 12.7 and 13.0 fantasy points the first two weeks with New Orleans playing in completive game at home but turned his 22 adjusted opportunities into just 56 scrimmage yards in last week's blowout loss. He'll still have value in games the Saints don't lose by 31, but they're 15.5-point 'dogs at Buffalo this week. After getting gouged on the ground in Week 1, the Bills' run defense tightened up the last two games. They've allowed the 10th lowest Rushing Success Rate and seventh fewest fantasy points per adjusted opportunity to running backs the last two weeks, suggesting Kamara is best served as a bench piece in Week 4.

Wide Receiver

Start

Chris Olave (NO)
New Orleans heading to Buffalo as 15.5-point underdogs may not bode well for their run game, but it should mean more volume for Chris Olave. Though Olave has yet to clear 60 receiving yards in a single game, he leads the league with 37 targets and is the second-biggest touchdown regression candidate among non-quarterbacks. He ranks fourth among all pass catchers with a 31.9% target share and is tied for the team lead in red zone target share (26.7%). Olave is also averaging 4.3 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game, so he's getting the kind of looks we want for fantasy. That hasn't yet led to signature performance, but there's an established floor for the top target on one of the three teams averaging more than 40 pass attempts per game. With Buffalo allowing the 11th most fantasy points per target to wide receivers and the Saints likely to be playing from behind, Olave needs to be started in all but the shallowest leagues in Week 4.

Darnell Mooney (ATL)
Darnell Mooney has totaled just 9.4 fantasy points across two games this season, but the underlying utilization suggests better days are on the horizon. He leads the Falcons with a 24.2% target share the last two weeks, but two wacky game scripts haven't allowed him to turn that into much fantasy production. Atlanta attempted just 21 passes in Week 2 before getting blanked in Week 3. Obviously, we need to have some concern after Michael Penix's dud last week, but I'm bullish the offense bounces back at home in Week 4. Mooney and company are set to host a Commanders secondary which ranks just 19th in adjusted pass defense and has surrendered the league's highest aDOT (10.0) through three games. That would further benefit Mooney considering he's seen 48% of their downfield targets and leads the team with a 41.4% air yards share in two healthy games.

Matthew Golden (GB)
Matthew Golden is one of the top wide receiver breakout candidates for Week 4, and he's someone I'm actively looking to start against the Cowboys' leaky secondary. After a quiet first two games, Golden showed signs of life with 4 receptions, 52 yards, and 8.1 fantasy points in Week 3. He saw his highest route participation of the season (81%; second on the team) in the loss, and the Packers fed him three rush attempts after he saw two carries the week prior. It's clear Green Bay is looking for ways to get their first-round pick involved, and that could lead to a true breakout with such a juicy matchup on deck. Dallas is 31st in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the most fantasy points per target, yards per route run, and touchdowns to the WR position. In the week's fastest matchup by adjusted pace, Golden is worth starting.

Sit

Calvin Ridley (TEN)
Calvin Ridley is going to pop for 100 yards and two touchdowns one of these weeks -- the underlying utilization is that good -- but his overall production has been bad enough to banish him to the bench ahead of Week 4's road date with the Texans. Though this is an indoor game, Houston's a solid 12th in adjusted pass defense and has permitted the 10th lowest catch rate to wide receivers. Ridley, meanwhile, has the fourth lowest catch rate over expectation (-23%) among wideouts with at least four targets per game. He's yet to clear 8.0 fantasy points or finish higher than WR56 in any of the first three weeks, making him a difficult start in Week 4.

Tee Higgins (CIN)
Moving Tee Higgins to your bench won't feel great, and it's not like his track record with Jake Browning is bad (last week notwithstanding). But last week was, indeed, bad, and a road date with the Broncos' vaunted secondary doesn't offer much hope for a bounce back. Granted, Denver hasn't been as dominant early on as they were in 2024, but they're still 14th in adjusted pass defense despite facing two of the league's most efficient air raids the last two weeks. They're also top five in blitz, pressure, and sack rate -- less than ideal for Browning, who has a 44% completion percentage and has thrown 4 interceptions over just 27 pressured dropbacks in 2025, per PFF. Tee's fantasy stock isn't completely tanked without Joe Burrow, but we have to be selective with his matchups. This is an easy spot to leave Higgins on the bench.

Tight End

Start

Zach Ertz (WSH)
After finishing as the TE9 and TE2 over the first two weeks, Zach Ertz was quiet in Week 3. Despite Washington scoring 41 points, they attempted just 21 passes -- only three of which went Ertz's direction. Still, that was with Marcus Mariota under center, and the Commanders could get Jayden Daniels back for this week's indoor game against Atlanta. Ertz has scored at least 8 fantasy points in 11 of 19 career games with Daniels as his starting quarterback, so there's a nice floor assuming the reigning Rookie of the Year suits up. There's upside in this matchup, too, after the Falcons let up 30 points to the Panthers in Week 3. Ertz is more of a high-end TE2 if Mariota starts again, but a potential Daniels return would boost him right back into the TE1 conversation.

David Njoku (CLE)
David Njoku saw his highest target share of the season last week (21.4%), finishing with 5 receptions and 40 yards. He's still yet to clear 40 yards in a single game while his final fantasy tally has hovered between 5.0 and 6.5 points in each of the first three games. Still, he ran a route on 71% of Joe Flacco's dropbacks last time out, and we should expect the Browns to air it out in a game in which they're 9.5-point underdogs. Detroit is still just 30th in adjusted pass defense, and they've allowed the most fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends early on. I'm willing to trust Njoku's Week 3 volume sticks this week, and we could be looking at near double-digit targets if Flacco gets back near the 45 attempts he recorded the first two weeks. There's not much TD upside, but Njoku's volume makes him someone worth starting in Week 4.

Sit

Mark Andrews (BAL)
Listen, I understand that Mark Andrews is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season. He saw a season-high 6 targets in the loss to Detroit, finishing with 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 2 touchdowns. But he still ran a route on only 66% of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks, and it's hard to ignore how little he was involved in the first two weeks. Plus, there's a chance Isiah Likely returns in Week 4, which would add another mouth to feed in this Baltimore offense. But even if Andrews is the clear-cut TE1 on this team, it's hard to get excited about his matchup in Kansas City. The Chiefs have again been one of the top defenses against tight ends, allowing a target to the position at the second lowest rate in football. There's still some touchdown upside given Baltimore's 25.5-point implied total, but the Ravens are 2.5-point road favorites against a Chiefs side which hasn't had much offensive firepower. I'm less optimistic the Ravens continue to air it out if they get out to an early lead in this one, giving Andrews a wide range of potential outcomes in a tough matchup.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.