Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 16

We're in the home stretch of the 2024 fantasy football season, but this is no time to take your foot off the pedal. You may have been fortunate (or skilled) enough to make it this far, but there's still work to do.

At this point in the season, you're starting your studs. Trust the guys who have gotten you this far.

But the NFL is a cruel game, and fantasy stocks change like the wind. There's a good chance you're going to be debating a lineup spot or two in the most important week of your fantasy season.

That's what this piece is here for, listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Here's a quick breakdown of the tiers:

• Tier 1: Lineup Locks
  • Players you aren't thinking twice about.
• Tier 2: Solid Starts
  • Players you start with confidence.
• Tier 3: Flex Plays
  • Players you start but with less confidence.
• Tier 4: Streamers
  • Players that work in a pinch.
• Tier 5: Sit if Possible
  • Players you're only starting as a last resort.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 16

Quarterback

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 16 Fantasy Football quarterback projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 16 quarterback tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Josh Allen (BUF) vs. NE
Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. PIT
Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ WSH
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. CLE

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Jared Goff (DET) @ CHI
Baker Mayfield (TB) @ DAL
Jayden Daniels (WSH) vs. PHI
Kyler Murray (ARI) @ CAR
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. SF
Sam Darnold (MIN) @ SEA

Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. TEN
Anthony Richardson is coming off a lackluster 15.4 fantasy points last week, but he deserves real consideration as a QB1 against the Titans in Week 16. AR has finished as a top-10 quarterback and netted more than 23 fantasy points in two of four starts since being re-named the starter, and it's hard to fault him for mild numbers against Detroit and Denver. There's a true ceiling this week at home against a Titans defense that's 22nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense and has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks since placing L'Jarius Snead (quad) on IR.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Jordan Love (GB) vs. NO
Caleb Williams (CHI) vs. DET
Brock Purdy (SF) @ MIA
Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. HOU
Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ NYJ

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) vs. LAR
The Jets season may be over, but Aaron Rodgers is just getting started. Rodgers has thrown for 628 yards and 4 touchdowns over his last two games, finishing as the QB11 and -- most recently -- the QB4 with 30.1 fantasy points. With New York quietly up to fourth in raw pass rate (64%), Rodgers has a sizable ceiling in Week 16. The Rams are just 22nd in adjusted pass defense and have permitted the fourth-most passing fantasy per dropback on the season.

Tier 4: Streamers

Bo Nix (DEN) @ LAC
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. DEN
Russell Wilson (PIT) @ BAL
Bryce Young (CAR) vs. ARI
C.J. Stroud (HOU) @ KC

Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) vs. NYG
There are enough defensible quarterbacks that I don't think you have to reach for Michael Penix in his first career start, but he's at least interesting given the matchup. The Giants have given up the fifth-most passing fantasy points per dropback this season, and they're down to 21st in pressure rate after a hot start to the year. And while Penix is inexperienced, he profiled as an NFL-ready quarterback coming out of college. He appeared in nearly 50 collegiate games, averaging north of 8.0 yards per attempt in his final season at Washington.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Cooper Rush (DAL) vs. TB
Drake Maye (NE) @ BUF

Running Back

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 16 Fantasy Football running back projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 16 running back tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) @ CHI
Bijan Robinson (ATL) vs. NYG
Josh Jacobs (GB) vs. NO
Chase Brown (CIN) vs. CLE
De'Von Achane (MIA) vs. SF
Joe Mixon (HOU) @ KC
Saquon Barkley (PHI) @ WSH
James Conner (ARI) @ CAR
Kyren Williams (LAR) @ NYJ
Derrick Henry (BAL) vs. PIT
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) vs. ARI

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs. TEN
Tony Pollard (TEN) @ IND
Bucky Irving (TB) @ DAL
Breece Hall (NYJ) vs. LAR
Aaron Jones (MIN) @ SEA
Rico Dowdle (DAL) vs. TB
James Cook (BUF) vs. NE
Isaac Guerendo (SF) @ MIA

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) vs. MIN
Zach Charbonnet couldn't replicate his Week 14 outburst despite again starting for the injured Kenneth Walker (calf) last week, but he still finished with 13.1 fantasy points -- good for RB16 on the week. Assuming Walker is sidelined again, Charbonnet is a borderline must start even in a tough matchup against Minnesota. Though the Vikings are first in schedule-adjusted rush defense, Charbonnet's volume is near matchup-proof. He's averaged 25.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), 108.8 scrimmage yards, and 21.9 fantasy points in four starts this season.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Jerome Ford (CLE) @ CIN
D'Andre Swift (CHI) vs. DET
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) @ ATL
Isiah Pacheco (KC) vs. HOU
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) @ BUF
Brian Robinson (WSH) vs. PHI
Rachaad White (TB) @ DAL

Travis Etienne (JAC) @ LV
Travis Etienne quietly saw a legitimate usage bump last week. He earned a season-high 24 adjusted opportunities while clearing a 70% snap rate for just the fourth time all year, netting 85 scrimmage yards and 10.5 fantasy points in the process. With the Jags showing a bit of life on offense in recent weeks, I'm certainly interested in Etienne against a Raiders front that's given up the second-most rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt to opposing backs. Vegas is in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the position, so Etienne's receiving role (10% target share with Mac Jones) at least gives him a solid floor in a plus matchup.

Tier 4: Streamers

Najee Harris (PIT) @ BAL
Gus Edwards (LAC) vs. DEN
Alexander Mattison (LV) vs. JAC
Tank Bigsby (JAC) @ LV
Tyjae Spears (TEN) @ IND
Jaylen Warren (PIT) @ BAL
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) vs. NYG

Kendre Miller (NO) @ GB
We're in wait-and-see mode with this Saints backfield as Alvin Kamara (groin) is allegedly day-to-day. I lean toward Kamara missing Monday's date with Green Bay, vaulting Kendre Miller into a featured role. The No. 71 overall pick in the 2023 draft, Miller was a good prospect but has yet to see extended run in the NFL. He has averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season, so a strong showing is certainly in the range of outcomes this weekend. It's just hard to get too excited about his upside on such a lackluster offense and facing Green Bay's 11th-ranked rush defense.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Javonte Williams (DEN) @ LAC
Kareem Hunt (KC) vs. HOU
Raheem Mostert (MIA) vs. SF
Kimani Vidal (LAC) vs. DEN

Wide Receivers

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 16 Fantasy Football wide receiver projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 16 wide receiver tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) vs. CLE
Puka Nacua (LAR) @ NYJ
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) @ CHI
Mike Evans (TB) @ DAL
Davante Adams (NYJ) vs. LAR
Justin Jefferson (MIN) @ SEA
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. TB
Tee Higgins (CIN) vs. CLE
Nico Collins (HOU) @ KC

Tier 2: Solid Starts

A.J. Brown (PHI) @ WSH
Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. SF
Malik Nabers (NYG) @ ATL
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) @ LV
Jakobi Meyers (LV) vs. JAC
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. PIT
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. LAR
Courtland Sutton (DEN) @ LAC
Jauan Jennings (SF) @ MIA
D.J. Moore (CHI) vs. DET

Cooper Kupp (LAR) @ NYJ
If you survived Cooper Kupp's Week 15 dud, congratulations (I did not). But even with Kupp's zero-catch outing, I don't think we should be rushing him to fantasy benches. Weather was a major factor in last week's game -- something he shouldn't have to worry about with sun on the forecast against the Jets. Kupp still has a 26% target share with Puka Nacua in the lineup, so I'm happy to trust his overall body of work against a Jets defense that's taken a major step back in recent weeks.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs. NE
Terry McLaurin (WSH) vs. PHI
Ladd McConkey (LAC) vs. DEN
Drake London (ATL) vs. NYG
Jordan Addison (MIN) @ SEA
Adam Thielen (CAR) vs. ARI
Calvin Ridley (TEN) @ IND
DeVonta Smith (PHI) @ WSH
Keenan Allen (CHI) vs. DET
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) @ CAR
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) @ CIN
Jameson Williams (DET) @ CHI
Jalen McMillan (TB) @ DAL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. MIN
Darnell Mooney (ATL) vs. NYG

Romeo Doubs (GB) vs. NO
Romeo Doubs caught two touchdowns in his return from a concussion last week. Granted, he had just one other reception besides those two scores, but he was a clear focal point with a 19% target share. He's the Packers receiver I trust most given Green Bay's wide receiver utilization, and this matchup is a good one. Though Green Bay's passing volume could be low given their status as 14.5-point favorites, the Saints boast a middling secondary. In six games since Marshon Lattimore last suited up for them, New Orleans has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Tier 4: Streamers

Deebo Samuel (SF) @ MIA
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. MIN
Christian Watson (GB) vs. NO
Jayden Reed (GB) vs. NO
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) vs. TEN
Josh Downs (IND) vs. TEN
Jalen Coker (CAR) vs. ARI
Rashod Bateman (BAL) vs. PIT
Tank Dell (HOU) @ KC
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) vs. HOU
Keon Coleman (BUF) vs. NE

Rome Odunze (CHI) vs. DET
Rome Odunze had a quiet follow-up to his two-touchdown performance in Week 14, but he still earned 7 targets and saw 38% of Chicago's air yards last week. In five games with Thomas Brown as play-caller, Odunze has a 23% target share and is averaging a team-high 4.6 downfield targets (10-plus yards) per game. Detroit has been a plus volume matchup for wideouts, permitting the highest target rate and third-most yards per route run to the position. In a game the Bears will likely be trailing, Odunze at least has upside.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) @ ATL
Quentin Johnston (LAC) vs. DEN
Xavier Worthy (KC) vs. HOU
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) @ GB

Amari Cooper (BUF) vs. NE
I was leading the Amari Cooper hype train following a 12-target outing in Week 14, but in a game where Buffalo scored 48 points, Cooper didn't even garner a target last week with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back in the mix. Cooper's utilization with Buffalo's pass-catchers healthy is a major concern -- enough where he belongs firmly on the bench in fantasy this week.

Tight Ends

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 16 Fantasy Football tight end projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 16 tight end tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Trey McBride (ARI) @ CAR
Brock Bowers (LV) vs. JAC
George Kittle (SF) vs. MIN

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Jonnu Smith (MIA) vs. SF
Sam LaPorta (DET) @ CHI
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. HOU
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) @ SEA
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. PIT

David Njoku (CLE) @ CIN
It's fair to be mildly nervous about what the switch to Dorian Thompson-Robinson will do to David Njoku's fantasy value, but he's still a clear start in a plus matchup against Cincinnati. We've seen Njoku thrive with any Browns QB not named Deshaun Watson over the last two seasons, so I'd expect him to remain a focal point against the Bengals' 24th-ranked adjusted pass defense. Cincy has been a premier matchup for tight ends, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per target and third-most yards per route run to the position.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Hunter Henry (NE) @ BUF
Cade Otton (TB) @ DAL
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs. NE
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) @ BAL
Tucker Kraft (GB) vs. NO
Jake Ferguson (DAL) vs. TB
Brenton Strange (JAC) @ LV
Juwan Johnson (NO) @ GB

Dalton Schultz (HOU) @ KC
Dalton Schultz flopped in what looked like a strong matchup against Miami last week, but Houston didn't get much pushback and ended up throwing just 26 times. Despite the 26 attempts, the Texans quietly posted the week's second-highest PROE (+10.9%), so I'm optimistic more volume could be incoming in what should be a closer game against KC. The Chiefs have been a stellar tight end matchup all year, giving up the highest target rate and most yard per route run to the position.

Tier 4: Streamers

Stone Smartt (LAC) vs. DEN
Noah Fant (SEA) @ MIA
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. DET

Isaiah Likely (BAL) vs. PIT
Isaiah Likely had another quiet game last week, but that's something we've come to expect with him serving as a tertiary option on this Baltimore offense. But he's just two weeks removed from a 12.3-point outing, and we saw Likely give Pittsburgh problems when they matched up earlier in the year. Though his fantasy output (5.5 points) in that game was mild due to a fumble, Likely caught 4 of 5 targets for 75 yards. He's a defensible streamer if you're truly desperate at tight end.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) @ IND
Kyle Pitts (ATL) vs. NYG
Mike Gesicki (CIN) vs. CLE

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.