Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

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After a long, action-packed offseason, the NFL is back.

With it, fantasy football is back.

Fresh out of drafts, everyone is a contender. Regardless of whether 2023 resulted in a championship or heartbreak, you have a blank slate in 2024.

I know all of you were well-versed in FanDuel Research's NFL coverage and nailed your draft, but that's only half the battle. A loaded roster can be a double-edged sword when it comes to choosing who to deploy in your starting lineup.

But don't sweat. I have you covered.

Every week I'll be ranking every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 1

Quarterback

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

Jordan Love (GB) -- After breaking out with a QB5 season in 2023, Jordan Love opens 2024 against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that let up the most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing quarterbacks last season. They're just 24th in PFF's preseason secondary unit rankings, so Love should feast with all his weapons healthy in a game that has a 48.5 over/under. His passing touchdowns prop is set at 1.5.

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Jared Goff (DET) -- In three seasons with the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff has averaged 264.5 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 19.8 FPPG at home. That'll play in Sunday night's home opener against a Los Angeles Rams side that surrendered the fourth-most FPPG to quarterbacks last season. He cooked them for 277 yards and a score during last year's Wild Card game, and a Week 1-high 51.5 over/under suggests more offensive fireworks are imminent.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -- T-Law was quietly the QB7 over the final eight weeks of 2023, and we're still just a year removed from his QB8 finish in 2022. That's come despite him underperforming his touchdown expectation each of the past two seasons. The addition of first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. should offset losing Calvin Ridley in the offseason, so Lawrence could fill up the box score early and often in Week 1. Sunday's Jacksonville Jaguars-Miami Dolphins matchup has the kind of high total (48.5) we want for fantasy goodness.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) -- Despite quarterbacking Miami's high-flying offense, Tua only averaged 16.7 FPPG last season (19th among QBs). Still, he flashed loads of upside with a pair of 28-FP performances and kicks off 2024 with both his key pass-catchers healthy. In the eight games last season in which Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both played at least 50% of snaps, Tua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Matthew Stafford (LAR) -- Like Tua, Matt Stafford doesn't have an ideal fantasy profile despite playing in a high-powered offense. But, also like Tua, Stafford was hampered by injuries to his key skill-position players. Still, we saw how effective he could be in the eight games Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all played at least 50% of snaps -- Stafford averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game. That doesn't even include a 367-yard, 2-touchdown outing against Detroit in the Wild Card. In the week's premier game environment, you can do a lot worse than Matt Stafford at quarterback.

Caleb Williams (CHI) -- Consider me a believer in Caleb Williams, though I have some reservations about starting a rookie quarterback in their NFL debut. Still, the Chicago Bears have surrounded him with talent, and his Week 1 matchup isn't bad at all. The Tennessee Titans were bottom 10 in EPA per dropback and passing success rate last season. They enter 2024 with PFF's 15th-ranked secondary. There's a wide range of outcomes here, though our NFL projections peg him for 18.6 FPs, tied for eighth at the position.

Jayden Daniels (WSH) -- I have similar reservations about Jayden Daniels as I do for Caleb Williams in Week 1, though (in theory) Daniels should have a higher floor thanks to his rushing. He exceeded 1,000 yards rushing in each of his final two collegiate seasons, but Week 1 doesn't offer the best matchup for Daniels to showcase his legs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards and fourth-lowest scramble rate to quarterbacks in 2023. I'd rather wait to deploy Daniels in Week 2.

Baker Mayfield (TB) -- Baker finished as the overall QB10 in a resurgent 2023 season, though he was QB19 by points per game. Still, he displayed a real rapport with his two veteran receivers and notched 18 FPs nine times. The loss of Dave Canales hurts him from a season-long outlook, but his Week 1 matchup is too good to pass up. The Washington Commanders gave up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and were dead-last in EPA per dropback allowed.

Tier 4: Sit

Dak Prescott (DAL) -- Dak was awesome last year. He finished as the QB3 overall and was the QB1 from Week 6 onward. But the Dallas Cowboys didn't do much to add to their offense in the offseason, and they get a brutal matchup against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Cleveland gave up the third-fewest FPPG to quarterbacks and led the league in defensive passing success rate last season. Against the three top-10 secondaries Prescott faced in 2023, he averaged a mere 11.3 FPPG. I'm happy to sit him on the road this week.

Brock Purdy (SF) -- Even with the San Francisco 49ers finally coming to terms with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, I'm not excited to start Brock Purdy in Week 1. Like most quarterbacks, Purdy was less effective against top secondaries last season, averaging 16.8 FPPG in five games versus top-10 pass defenses. He opens up 2024 against a New York Jets defense that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season and ranks fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense rankings. There are better options.

Running Back

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

Javonte Williams (DEN) -- In spite of his uninspiring 2023 season, I'm back in on Javonte Williams this year. Now a full year removed from his 2022 knee injury, Williams saw 22.1 adjusted opportunities per game over the final nine games of 2023. That only translated to 10.6 FPPG, but he has the matchup to feast in Week 1. Seattle allowed the sixth-most FPPG and second-most rushing yards over expectation per carry to running backs last season. They're expected to be better on that front with defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald at the helm, but they also have PFF's 17th-ranked defensive line unit entering the season.

Jerome Ford (CLE) -- Jerome Ford turned in an RB17 season in place of Nick Chubb last year, and that was with Kareem Hunt crossing the goal line nine times. Ford will serve as Cleveland's starter again with Chubb on the PUP to start the year, but this time there's no Hunt to vulture touchdowns. He should see plenty of volume in Week 1, elevating him to RB2 status even in a tough matchup with Dallas. We project him for 12.6 FPs this week, which is 16th among running backs.

Aaron Jones (MIN) -- Aaron Jones only suited up for 11 regular-season games last year, but a pair of 100-yard outings in the playoffs proved he still has plenty left in the tank. He gets downgraded in a less potent offense, but there should be plenty of volume his way as long as he's healthy. Considering the New York Giants gave up the 10th-most FPPG and fourth-most rushing yards over expectation per carry to running backs in 2023, I'd be hard-pressed to leave Aaron Jones on my bench this week. His rushing yards prop is set at 54.5.

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Chuba Hubbard (CAR) -- With Jonathon Brooks on the PUP, Chuba Hubbard should see the lion's share of the Carolina Panthers' backfield touches. That was a role he performed well in last season, averaging 21.9 adjusted opportunities from Week 6 onward. A 36% success rate during that stretch doesn't bode well for his prospects once Brooks returns, but it propelled him to an RB18 standing during that stretch in 2023. The New Orleans Saints are 30th in schedule-adjusted run defense, so the volume is enough to start him as an RB2.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) -- It's fair to question how much upside Rhamondre has in Week 1. The New England Patriots have easily the lowest implied total (15.5) and they're the biggest underdog (+7.5) this week. Though the Cincinnati Bengals were exploitable on the ground last season, we could see New England go away from the run game if they fall behind early. Still, there's enough volume to warrant starting him. In 12 games before getting injured, Stevenson turned 22.6 adjusted opportunities into 10.3 FPPG.

D'Andre Swift (CHI) -- There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Bears offense, and D'Andre Swift has competition in the backfield, too. Still, you'd expect them to feed Swift early after inking him to a $24 million contract, and that projected volume is where his fantasy value lies. A back playing for his third team in three years is a tad scary, but I don't think Swift is totally cooked, either. Among running backs that saw 10 carries per game last season, Swift ranked fourth in success rate. He's fine as an RB2, just keep expectations in check.

Zamir White (LV) -- Zamir White was the RB8 over the final four weeks of 2023, during which he turned a staggering 27.5 adjusted opportunities into 14.1 FPPG. If that volume holds, you're going to feel silly not starting him this week. But I question how big of a role he'll play in the passing game, even with Antonio Pierce declaring White their go-to guy on early downs. I'm O.K. starting him in a pinch, but the Las Vegas Raiders' 18.75 implied total doesn't offer much upside if he doesn't get work in the passing game.

Devin Singletary (NYG) -- Devin Singletary doesn't have much competition in the Giants' backfield, and the potential for 20+ opportunities is where he can flirt with being an RB2. That said, the Minnesota Vikings' run defense is formidable enough where this is a strict volume play. Singletary only managed a 39.4% success rate despite playing in a better offense last season, and he only cracked 10 fantasy points three times in games he didn't score. They call him Devin Singledigits for a reason, but he's a fine RB2 if needed.

Tony Pollard & Tyjae Spears (TEN) -- Both Pollard and Spears are talented backs, but the Titans don't exactly have a high-flying offense and we don't know how they're going to split up the backfield. A matchup with Chicago's third-ranked schedule-adjusted run defense is less than ideal, but you're not punting the position if either is your RB2 this week. Notably, Pollard is one of the biggest running back touchdown regression candidates. By Brandon Gdula's numbers, Pollard scored 6 touchdowns compared to 10.4 expected touchdowns last season.

Gus Edwards & J.K. Dobbins (LAC) -- Someone is going to be fantasy-relevant in this Los Angeles Chargers backfield. Jim Harbaugh's 49ers were top-10 in rush attempts and yards all four years he was their head coach, and he continued to put a heavy emphasis on the ground game in college. The question is who will emerge between Edwards and Dobbins. Dobbins likely has more upside given the talent he flashed pre-injury, but Gus Bus figures to shoulder the bulk of the goal line workload. I don't love starting either of them this week given the volume uncertainty, but either can do in a pinch. The Raiders have an underrated defense, but they did yield the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs in 2023.

Zack Moss & Chase Brown (CIN) -- There are some similarities between the Chargers and Bengals backfields to start the season. Joe Mixon proved this role is a fantasy goldmine with Joe Burrow under center, but it's not clear whether Moss or Brown will get enough work to deliver consistent performances. It doesn't help that in Week 1 they face a Pats defense that gave up the third-fewest rushing yards over expectation per attempt in 2023. Still, the Bengals are big favorites, and we could see them pound the ground if they get out to an early lead. Because of that, I'd lean Moss over Brown, especially after we saw him average 15.7 FPPG in six games as a starter last season.

Tier 4: Sit

Ezekiel Elliott & Rico Dowdle (DAL) -- I worry that Zeke is cooked and Dowdle isn't very good, and I don't want to find out on the road against a Cleveland defense that gave up the third-lowest EPA per carry in 2023. They're easy sits until we get a clearer picture of this backfield.

Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (PIT) -- Did we learn nothing from the Arthur Smith experience in Atlanta? This is a headache I want to avoid against an Atlanta Falcons front that surrendered the eighth-fewest FPPG to running backs in 2023.

Austin Ekeler & Brian Robinson (WSH) -- The Commanders are another backfield that lacks a clear-cut starter and faces a top-10 run defense to open the season. See how the touches get distributed and circle back in Week 2.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Malik Nabers (NYG) -- Malik Nabers is uber-talented and figures to see upwards of a 25% target share right off the bat. He gets a juicy Week 1 matchup against a Vikings defense that allowed the fourth-most FPPG and fifth-most yards per route run to wide receivers in 2023, so I don't think it's a stretch to say he has WR1 upside this week. The drawback is that Daniel Jones is his quarterback, and that relegates Nabers to low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 status in Week 1.

Tank Dell (HOU) -- Tank Dell and Nico Collins both played at least 60% of snaps in seven games last season. In those seven games, Tank led the way with 15.8 FPPG, a 22.6% target share, and a 35% air yard share. The addition of Stefon Diggs could muddy the water here a bit, but Dell is Stroud's best friend and he's treated him like the team's top wideout when active. Against the zone-heavy Colts, Dell (89.3 PFF receiving grade vs. zone) could feast.

Tee Higgins (CIN) -- A matchup with New England isn't great on paper, but there's a chance Tee Higgins is Cincy's top wideout with Ja'Marr Chase still holding out for a new contract. But even if Chase does suit up, he could see a ton of Christian Gonzalez on the outside. Either way you spin it, a healthy Burrow and Higgins connection is well worth finding a lineup spot for. We're just a year removed from Tee's WR17 2022 season, after all.

Amari Cooper (CLE) -- In five full games with Deshaun Watson last season, Cooper averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game via a 24.4% target share and 15.9-yard aDOT. That's a small sample -- and Cooper's one-on-one matchup with Trevon Diggs this week isn't ideal -- but he's been as reliable as they come, regardless of who's under center. It's hard to trust Watson, but Cooper's track record speaks for itself.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) -- I'm lower than consensus on Michael Pittman, and that's entirely due to questions about Anthony Richardson. AR fed Pittman a 25.4% target share in his two full games last season, but that only translated to 10.9 FPPG. There's added competition with JT healthy and rookie Adonai Mitchell in town, so I'd temper expectations for Pittman early on. It doesn't help that the Texans gave up the fifth-fewest FPPG to WRs in 2023, nor that he'll see a lot of Derek Stingley Jr. (85.3 PFF coverage grade).

Chris Godwin (TB) -- Chris Godwin is the single-biggest touchdown regression candidate among wide receivers after he only scored twice compared to 6.5 expected touchdowns by Brandon Gdula's numbers. That was his third straight season underperforming in the touchdown department, but his late-season usage and juicy matchup has me bullish on him in Week 1. Godwin commanded a 29% target share and averaged 12.3 FPPG over the final five weeks of 2023, and he opens the year against a Commanders secondary that gave up the second-most FPPG to receivers last season.

Keenan Allen (CHI) -- Keenan Allen had arguably his best season to date in 2023, but his move to a crowded Bears receiver room caps his upside in 2024. Still, it's hard not to get excited about his early-season outlook as Caleb Williams' safety valve. The Titans have a pair of capable corners to match Chicago's perimeter, but more work in the slot could result in a busy Bears debut for Allen. Chicago's 24.5 implied total offers more upside than you'd expect, and Allen's receptions prop is set at 4.5. He caught five passes in 11 of 13 games last season.

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Terry McLaurin (WSH) -- Terry McLaurin opens 2024 as the clear No. 1 receiver for the Commanders. The volume should be there regardless of Jayden Daniels' play to support a startable fantasy performance in Week 1, but there's real upside if Daniels is as advertised as a passer. Tampa has PFF's 12th-ranked secondary, but they gave up the 11th-most FPPG and eighth-most yards per route run to wide receivers in 2023.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Stefon Diggs (HOU) -- Considering the draft capital you had to allocate toward Stefon Diggs, I'd find it hard to bench him in Week 1. For as lackluster as he was in the back half of 2023, Diggs still opened last season as the overall WR3 through the first nine weeks. He has a lot more target competition this season -- and I prefer both Nico Collins and Tank Dell -- but the track record is sound enough to deploy him as a WR3 or flex in Week 1.

Zay Flowers (BAL) -- Zay Flowers was stellar as a rookie, recording a 25.6% target share, 1.94 yards per route run, and 11 FPPG. But those numbers dropped to a 22.6% target share, 1.82 yards per route run, and 8.2 FPPG in the nine games Mark Andrews played at least 50% of snaps. We can expect some improvement in Zay's second season, but it's hard to ignore those splits against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that was top-five in FPPG and yards per route run allowed to wide receivers in 2023. He's more of a flex in Week 1.

Calvin Ridley & DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) -- DeAndre Hopkins is expected to play in Week 1, and that muddies the water a bit for Calvin Ridley. The 32-year-old commanded a 28.3% target share in seven games with Will Levis last season, culminating in 13 FPPG. That makes him the clear WR1 in Tennessee to open the year, though both wideouts can be deployed as flex options. Ridley was up-and-down, but he still finished as the WR17 overall and averaged 5.6 downfield targets per game. Levis led the NFL with a 10.5 aDOT, so there's home run potential even against Chicago's talented secondary.

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) -- I'm certainly interested in getting in on Jacksonville's 23 implied total when the game's over/under is up at 48.5. Considering the Jags are 3.5-point underdogs, their passing game is an avenue I'm looking to go down. But with Christian Kirk dropping to WR35 in FPPG (10.1) and only seeing a 20.9% target share, I think we can jump on rookie Brian Thomas Jr. as early as Week 1. The first-round pick could slot right into Calvin Ridley's role from last season -- one that earned Ridley a 22.5% target share and 11.2 FPPG.

Khalil Shakir (BUF) -- Someone has to emerge from the Buffalo Bills receiver room, right? It's easy to get excited about anyone catching passes from Josh Allen, especially against an Arizona Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per target to receivers in 2023. Rookie Keon Coleman isn't a bad dart throw if you're desperate, but I much prefer the established Khalil Shakir. A yards per route run darling (2.06 YPRR in 2023), Shakir popped for 100 yards twice last season and caught touchdowns in both of Buffalo's playoff games. Over the final three weeks of the regular season, Shakir was third on the team with a 15.1% target share.

Tier 4: Sit

George Pickens (PIT) -- I'm terrified to start any member of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense in Week 1, George Pickens included. Pickens was exceptional down the stretch last season, so there's obvious upside every time he touches the ball. But Drake London only averaged 8.6 FPPG in Arthur Smith's offense last season, and Russell Wilson fueled just one double-digit FPPG pass catcher in 2023. Add in a tough matchup with Atlanta's A.J. Terrell, and Pickens isn't someone I'm going out of my way to start in Week 1.

Jayden Reed & Christian Watson (GB) -- Between Reed, Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, someone is going to have a good day against Philly's suspect secondary. If you have to start any of them, I'd lean Watson for upside, but there's too much ambiguity to start any of them with confidence in Week 1.

Diontae Johnson (CAR) -- Diontae Johnson could see a ton of Marshon Lattimore on Sunday, and the Panthers only have a 19.0 implied total. He'll have value going forward, but I'm not excited to start him in Week 1.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

David Njoku (CLE) -- I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about David Njoku now that Joe Flacco is gone, but his second half of 2023 was so good that you almost have to start him in Week 1. Njoku was the TE1 from Week 8 onward, during which he averaged 12.9 FPPG and saw a 24.9% target share to go along with a 31.5% red zone target share. Deshaun Watson was his quarterback for two of those games, but he only fed Njoku a 16.3% target share in the five total games they played together. Still, there's too much upside to sit him at such a frail position.

Jake Ferguson (DAL) -- Jake Ferguson was a reliable second option in the Dallas passing game last season, ranking second in target share (16.9%) and red zone target share (23.1%). There were some bumps along the way, but he finished the season as the overall TE8. The Cowboys didn't add much to their offense this offseason, so we can expect more of the same in 2024. Just don't get too excited about Week 1. He's still worth starting, but the Browns allowed the second-fewest FPPG to tight ends in 2023.

Dallas Goedert (PHI) -- Dallas Goedert was the clear No. 3 option in the Philly passing attack last season, posting a 19.2% target share while averaging 7.6 FPPG. Though he saw a healthy 25.6% red zone target share, he only caught three touchdowns. Still, he figures to have a similar role in Week 1 and the matchup is solid. In 2023, the Green Bay Packers allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per target and sixth-most yards per route run to tight ends. He's a solid low-end TE1.

Taysom Hill (NO) -- Swiss army knife Taysom Hill was one of my top fantasy football sleepers coming into 2024, and there's a lot to like with his opening matchup against Carolina. The Panthers have PFF's 25th-ranked secondary and 18th-ranked linebacker unit entering the season, and the Saints have a healthy 22.5 implied total. Hill was second on the Saints with a 20.9% red zone opportunity share last season, and New Orleans didn't add anyone of note to take away goal line touches. Hill has +195 odds to score a touchdown in Week 1.

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Tier 3: On the Fence

Hunter Henry (NE) -- Hunter Henry has a little-to-no target competition and gets to face a Bengals defense that allowed the fourth-highest target rate and second-most yards per route run to opposing tight ends last season. Granted, the Pats have a measly 15.5 implied total, but we at least can trust Jacoby Brissett to feed tight ends. There's not a ton of upside in this offense, but Henry could play his way into a back end TE1 in a solid matchup.

Brock Bowers (LV) -- The first-round pick oozes talent, but it's hard to trust a rookie tight end in his NFL debut, especially when his quarterback is Gardner Minshew. We can trust he'll see plenty of snaps, but Bowers is surrounded by two wide receivers that exceeded 20% target shares in 2023. I'd turn elsewhere in Week 1 if possible, but there's certainly upside against an uninspiring Chargers defense that was middle of the road against tight ends last season.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) -- On one hand, Pat Freiermuth now has Arthur Smith as his offensive coordinator and is up against a Falcons defense that gave up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per target to tight ends last season. On the other hand, Smith has heavily featured tight ends (emphasis on the "s") in the past, and Atlanta surrendered the highest target rate to the position. There's a wide range of outcomes, but Freiermuth at least has some upside with Pittsburgh lacking pass-catching options.

Tier 4: Sit

Cole Kmet (CHI) -- Though Cole Kmet finished as the TE7 last season, it's hard to get excited about him with a rookie quarterback and two added pass-catchers in the mix. Add in that the Titans surrendered the eighth-fewest FPPG to the position in 2023, and Kmet's a relatively easy sit in Week 1.

Dalton Schultz (HOU) -- Dalton Schultz only saw a 14.5% target share and averaged 7.8 FPPG in the seven games Nico Collins and Tank Dell were healthy. With both back and Stefon Diggs in the fold, there's just too much target competition to trust Schultz in Week 1.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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