Fantasy Football: Should We Draft Aaron Rodgers in 2024?

With the New York Jets suffering from a lengthy history of subpar quarterback play, Aaron Rodgers was expected to be the key missing piece on an otherwise strong roster when he was acquired for multiple draft picks last offseason.

There was a ton of hype around the Jets by the time they opened their 2023 campaign, and a September 11th home opener on Monday Night Football had the crowd buzzing with excitement when Rodgers was introduced. Maybe this would finally be the Jets' year.

Of course, as we all know, the football gods had other ideas. Four offensive snaps later, Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles. His season -- and the Jets' Super Bowl hopes -- were dashed in an instant.

Fast forward a year later, and we're pretty much in the same place, as New York is running it back with Rodgers and a similar supporting cast.

While the Jets are no doubt looking for their first playoff appearance since 2010, fantasy expectations are muted for their big-name quarterback. According to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data, Rodgers is being drafted as the QB21 at roughly 140th overall.

Is Rodgers someone who could outdo his ADP and emerge as a quality QB1 in fantasy? Or is he an easy pass in most formats? Let's take a look.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook

Rodgers' Last Seasons in Green Bay

The QB's four snaps and one pass attempt from last year give us nothing to work with, so we'll have to hop back to Rodgers' final campaigns with the Green Bay Packers as a starting point.

Now 40 years old, Rodgers has predictably scaled back his rushing output -- he averaged just 5.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 -- and that's certainly not about to change following a serious injury. Therefore, his fantasy production has come solely from his arm, which has fluctuated dramatically over the past five healthy seasons.

The biggest reason? Passing touchdowns.

Rodgers' fantasy finishes over that span have been QB6, QB10, QB3, QB6, and QB13, with him notably winning back-to-back MVP awards in those 2020 and 2021 campaigns.

But the 48 touchdowns he threw in 2020 is a particular outlier due to his 9.1% touchdown rate. Not only did that lead the league that year, but it's the highest single-season career mark among active quarterbacks.

As J.J. Zachariason noted on numberFire a few years back, when quarterbacks log a 7.0% touchdown rate or higher, they regress the following season, and even with Rodgers still logging a league-high touchdown rate again in 2021, he's regressed in each of the last two seasons.

All of this is to say that a return to those gaudy touchdown totals from 2020-21 is unlikely, particularly with him dipping below a 5.0% touchdown rate in three of the last five years and his career average sitting at 6.2%

But even with Rodgers throwing 26 scores in 2022 (seventh-most that season), his fantasy points per game plummeted compared to 2018 and 2019. Although he finished as the QB13 in overall fantasy points, a big part of that was playing all 17 games in a year where many prominent signal-callers missed time. Rodgers was just 21st on a per-game basis among QBs who started double-digit games.

That's because his efficiency took a hit, as he was 23rd in yards per attempt (6.8) and 20th in adjusted yards per attempt (also 6.8) among qualified starters. Both figures were well below his career averages of 7.7 and 8.3. Per NextGenStats, he also averaged just -0.07 expected added points per drop back (24th) with a 43.2% passing success rate (21st).

While none of that sounds great, there is some room for optimism. His decline could be attributed to a lack of weapons after Davante Adams was traded ahead of that season (Allen Lazard led the team in targets), and Rodgers also reportedly played much of that campaign with a broken thumb.

What does it all mean for his outlook in 2024?

Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?

In contrast to his final year with the Packers, there's no question Rodgers will have a tantalizing weapon at his disposal in Garrett Wilson, who's logged over 1000 receiving yards in each of his first two campaigns despite poor QB play. Wilson is being drafted as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver and has the seventh-shortest odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+2200). It isn't outlandish to envision Wilson becoming Rodgers' new Davante Adams.

Beyond Wilson, the Jets' offense still features dynamic running back Breece Hall who could be a valuable safety valve for Rodgers. Hall led all RBs in receiving yards (591) in 2023 while averaging 5.6 targets per game with a 16.9% target share.

New York further bolstered their passing attack by signing former Los Angeles Chargers wideout Mike Williams and drafting Malachi Corley in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Jets also revamped their offensive line, which was previously a glaring weakness. PFF has the o-line ranked fifth entering the year while Establish the Run puts the group at ninth. Even league-average play on the line would be a massive win for their aging quarterback.

In all, there are enough pieces here to reasonably suggest that Rodgers could bounce back and reach his previous levels of efficiency. However, it's harder to make a case for Rodgers having an especially high ceiling.

Without any rushing upside, we really need him to ball out through the air, and as previously noted, passing scores can be tough to rely on to begin with. But in terms of yardage, we're more likely to see flashy numbers if Rodgers finds himself in shootouts -- something we won't see often on the Jets.

New York's defense was its one saving grace last season, finishing as numberFire's third-best schedule-adjusted unit. Entering 2024, PFF has the Jets ranked as their No. 1 defensive line, linebacker unit, and secondary. It's pretty safe to say Rodgers won't see himself down multiple scores very often, if ever, this season.

Further, this likely means that Rodgers can play at the deliberate, methodical pace he often preferred in Green Bay, and Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was his Packers OC from 2019-2021. As Establish the Run's Pat Thorman points out, while a dominant defense should provide the offense more possessions, Rodgers' three seasons with Hackett were at or near the bottom in situation-neutral pace.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Projection

According to numberFire's model, Rodgers is being projected for 3,875 passing yards, 26.5 touchdowns, and 6.8 interceptions if he plays all 17 games. This places him as the QB22, which falls in line with his ADP putting him just outside the top-20 quarterbacks.

FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL passing props have Rodgers' lines set at 3,600.5 passing yards and 25.5 passing touchdowns.

There's certainly a scenario where Rodgers is able to be hyper-efficient and capitalizes on short fields to boost his touchdown output. But with no rushing value, a lack of shootouts, slow offensive pace, and age -- not to mention he's coming off a serious injury -- all being potential factors against him, it feels like we're banking on a lot to go right when drafting Rodgers. And even then, it might result in a low-QB1 output at best.

Rodgers' ADP feels about right, which means he shouldn't be in the conversation for standard leagues. Even as a late-round option in deep formats, he might be more of a last resort after some more intriguing signal-callers are off the board, and he's otherwise probably best left to superflex or two-QB leagues.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.