Fantasy Football: Should Tee Higgins Go Earlier in Fantasy Drafts?

The Cincinnati Bengals went into last season with championship hopes, but a litany of defensive injuries and a season-ending blow to Joe Burrow turned the year into a wash.

Cincinnati is expected to get back to their winning ways, owning a 10.5 win total with -134 odds on the over and +1400 Super Bowl Odds (fifth-shortest).

Tee Higgins, who is entering his fifth season in the league, was one of many underperformers for the Bengals in the 2023-2024 season.

Should fantasy football managers steer clear of Higgins off the heels of a sour season, or could he be a key value pickup in drafts?

Let's check out Higgins' outlook for the upcoming season and decipher where he should be on your draft board.

Tee Higgins Fantasy Football Outlook

Higgins By the Years

The first three seasons of Higgins' career were met with a trio of eerily similar stat lines.

In his rookie campaign, Higgins notched 908 yards and 6 touchdowns on 108 targets. He went on to record 1,091 yards and 6 touchdowns via 110 targets in his sophomore season and then finished his third year with 1,029 yards and 7 touchdowns via 109 targets. That's a pretty steady target volume.

Higgins finished as WR30, WR22, and WR17 in these respective seasons. His stock rose with the improvements, entering the 2023-2024 season with a 14.0 average draft position (ADP) at wide receiver and a 30 overall ADP.

However, a hamstring injury forced Higgins to sit out for five games last season. He finished 49th in half-PPR scoring at the position, playing just 12 games, 5 of which were without Burrow at the helm.

According to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Higgins currently has a 28.7 ADP at wide receiver and is being selected at pick 50 overall.

This is the lowest his draft stock has been since his rookie season, where he entered with a 71.0 ADP at wide receiver and 225 overall ADP.

Can we capitalize on Higgins' lower-than-normal stock? Let's find out.

The Last Dance in Cincy?

After an offseason of speculation, Higgins and the Bengals failed to negotiate a long-term deal ahead of Monday's deadline, and he will play on a one-year franchise tag for the upcoming season.

Higgins is the only player to not receive a multi-year deal among the eight NFL players designated as franchise players this offseason.

There were reports that Higgins requested a trade from the team in late March, but now he'll proceed as a Bengal and enter free agency following the season.

This is noteworthy when discussing his fantasy outlook. On one hand, we have a player looking to prove himself for a big contract following a poor showing last year. But on the other hand, Higgins is likely gone after the season, so it wouldn't be shocking to see self-preservation come into play at some point this year.

Even still, Higgins has a firm place as Cincinnati's WR2 -- behind Ja'Marr Chase, of course. Tyler Boyd, who owned a 16.6% target share and 13.3% end zone target share last season, left for the Tennessee Titans.

Joe Mixon was turned in for Zack Moss in the backfield, and the former eats up a meatier role in the passing game than the latter.

Despite his hectic contract situation with the Bengals, we could see Higgins dominate his biggest share of targets yet.

The New-Look Bengals

Last year was a season of career lows for Higgins, including a 17.9% target share and 1.73 yards per route run (YPRR).

But given the circumstances, we have to be willing to give him a pass. A 12-game season and just a 7-game season alongside Burrow had Higgins bound for underperformance. He also left a pair of these games early and was playing through a hamstring injury during Cincinnati's final push for the playoffs.

With Boyd and Mixon out, Higgins is primed to shoulder a decent load of Cincinnati's pass-heavy offense.

Chase hinders his ceiling. But when we check out Higgins' numbers in the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, it's easy to get excited about him this go-around.

Higgins had back-to-back campaigns with 1,000-plus yards and 6-plus touchdowns even with Chase eating up a total of 2,501 yards and a massive 22 touchdowns in that two-season span.

Even more intriguing? Higgins not only found his place alongside Chase, but he also did so with Boyd notching 94 and 82 targets in those seasons and Mixon seeing 75 targets in the latter year.

According to numberFire's season-long NFL projections for the upcoming year, Trenton Irwin is expected to log the third-most targets at wide receiver for Cincy, behind Chase and Higgins. numberFire has Irwin seeing just 44.3 targets this year.

Chase will get his, but Higgins figures to play his biggest role yet in this offense.

Tee Higgins Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's projections expect Higgins to log 81.7 receptions for 1,076.6 yards and 7.3 touchdowns via 130.0 targets this season. These projections assume Higgins will play a full 17-game season.

Higgins nabbed 108 and 109 targets in the two seasons where he played 16 games, so our assumption that Higgins could take on his biggest role yet is supported by his target projection.

Interestingly, numberFire's projections expect just an 8.9% touchdown rate for Higgins, the lowest since his sophomore season. They also have Higgins set to gain the fewest yards per target in his career.

While this may sound like bad news, it's not.

numberFire's projections have Higgins finishing as WR22 this season, even with baked-in expectations of negative regression from prior seasons.

As mentioned, Higgins currently owns a 28.7 ADP at wide receiver at pick 50.

Notably, numberFire expects him to outdo Malik Nabers, Stefon Diggs, Zay Flowers, Michael Pittman Jr., George Pickens, and Amari Cooper, all of whom are currently being selected ahead of Higgins in fantasy drafts.

Higgins looks to be a bargain in fantasy drafts given the price. If you think a potential career-high in targets could result in career-highs for yards and touchdowns, then Higgins, who ended as WR17 in his most recent healthy season, is a top candidate to be taken off the board earlier in fantasy drafts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.