Fantasy Football: One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Draft

For many, it's fantasy football draft week -- which means all that preparation, stress, and excitement will culminate when you sit down to figure out what your team is going to look like for 2023.

Maybe nothing has been more stressful this offseason than watching the carousel of running-back stories go on and on -- holdouts, committees, injures and what not.

Thankfully, the 2023 draft season has an interesting twist on the RB position as -- thanks to receivers shooting up draft boards -- there are backs going in the middle rounds who don't seem to be as much of a dart throw as the typical mid-round back in recent years.

What was once a difficult position to feel good about outside of the first few rounds has become a position that has value up and down the draft. We'll take it!

I've done my best to highlight a running back worth keeping on your radar for each of the first 10 rounds of the draft. Let's dig in.

All ADPs are via FantasyPros half-PPR data.

One Running Back to Target in Each Round

Round 1 -- Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

ADP: 2.0

When Christian McCaffrey is healthy, you can't get much better than him at the running back position in fantasy football.

Don't get it twisted -- sometimes the best players are just the best players.

McCaffrey is as proven as anyone in terms of being the top running back in fantasy football, and now we'll experience what he's like in a full season with the San Francisco 49ers.

He finished last season with 313.9 half-PPR points, good enough for the RB2 as he was just under six points behind Austin Ekeler. Consider that CMC played limited snaps in his first game in San Fran after getting traded to the 49ers midweek -- you make that a full game, and he likely was the RB1 on the season.

There's certainly a worry that when Elijah Mitchell is healthy, McCaffrey will probably cede some touches. But that just feels like an opportunity to keep McCaffrey fresh and effective. Plus, Mitchell has missed 17 games over the past two seasons, so it's not a lock he is a thorn in CMC's side all year.

CMC is going to be the focal point of the highly talented 49ers' offense, and he's got both a high floor and a massive ceiling. He should be the first back off the board.

Round 2 -- Tony Pollard, Cowboys

ADP: 16.3

The hype for Tony Pollard is real.

Ezekiel Elliott is now in New England, leaving Pollard the bulk of the work as the unquestioned lead back of the Dallas Cowboys' offense.

What Pollard was able to do last year even with Elliott in the same backfield is why you should be excited about Pollard in 2023. For me, he's the must-get running back of Round 2.

The Cowboys' back finished with 229.3 half-PPR points last year (RB7). He did that with fewer than 250 touches. He's a dynamic player who has huge upside.

Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy made it pretty simple in March on what he wants the Cowboys' O to do: "I want to run the damn ball," he said. Heard loud and clear, coach.

Elliott's exit will free up 231 carries and a 54.5% red-zone rushing share. Not to say every bit of that will go to Pollard, but a ton of it will, giving him all he needs to have a sensational season.

FanDuel's Brandon Gdula simulated this season 10,000 times, and Pollard had the third-best odds to lead all running backs in points, doing so 8.9% of the time. He was a top-five back 31.4% of the time.

If you're looking for a running back outside of the first round who can finish the season as the RB1, Pollard is that guy.

Round 3 -- Joe Mixon, Bengals

ADP: 33.7

Can we get some love for Joe Mixon in fantasy football? Please?

OK, so last year wasn't great. His 826 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per carry won't have you jumping for joy, but here's the thing -- he is the lead back for one of the best offenses in football. Joe Burrow is his quarterback, and the Cincinnati Bengals will put up a lot of points. That's a great place to start.

And to take all that goodness a step further, former backup running back Samaje Perine has moved on (more on him shortly). As it appears now, there's no one to take key touches from Mixon any longer -- that included Perine's six touchdowns and 38 receptions that Mixon missed out on in 2022.

In fantasy football, volume is king. Mixon is going to get it. It doesn't always need to be pretty for the fantasy points to pile up.

Other options in Round 3 include Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, and Jahmyr Gibbs -- four running backs who have clear backups who they will likely be splitting some of their work with.

If you want a feature running back this late in the draft, Mixon is him.

Round 4 -- Aaron Jones, Packers

ADP: 38.3

Aaron Jones is a pick who will always be one of those that the people at your draft will kind of ignore, but when a fantasy team has him, they're better for it.

Jones has finished as a top-12 running back for four straight seasons. Four straight. And yet, no one ever really wants him all that badly.

In 2022, Jones had 1,121 rushing yards on 213 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per rush. Add in that he had 59 receptions for 395 receiving yards, and you get an even better appreciation for what Jones is able to do on the gridiron. He finished as the RB9 and totaled 12.9 points per game.

The reason he's going as the RB15 in drafts is due to the uncertainty that is Jordan Love at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. Well, it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows for the Packers' offense last year, and Jones still produced.

At the end of the day, Jones is going to get his touches. A.J. Dillon has pretty much shown what he is. He's still a presence who will take from Jones, but with how efficient Jones has been in his career (5.1 yards per carry), Jones is a safe bet to continue to see good volume.

Going as the RB15 with an ADP of 38.3, Jones is a proven commodity who is a nice RB2 and can be your RB1 if you want to prioritize other positions in the first three rounds.

Round 5 -- James Conner, Cardinals

ADP: 60.7

There's a trend here if you haven't noticed. Many of the hopeful breakout options come later in the draft this year, so I am highlighting those few who are going to get the bulk of carries -- or are just plain good.

That brings us to James Conner.

Listen, everyone is aware that it's going to be a tough season for the Arizona Cardinals. Not a lot of things are going to look good for that team. But they're going to score sometimes, and they're going to get yards because it's football and that has to happen.

Conner is one of the few running backs this year who has zero competition for carries. He's going to get fed -- whether it's on the ground or through the air.

We saw that at the end of last season. When Kyler Murray went down with an injury in Week 14, the Cardinals leaned on Conner from there on out.

Here were his half-PPR point totals from Week 14 until the end of the season:

• Week 14: 20.4
• Week 15: 16.6
• Week 16: 21.5
• Week 17: 12.5

On a point-per-game basis for the season, Conner was the RB9 as he averaged 13.6 half-PPR points. The Round 5 ADP -- end of Round 5 to be exact -- makes Conner a quality option if you want to wait on a running back or are looking for an RB2.

Round 6 -- James Cook, Bills

ADP: 71.3

James Cook is a back who could be a league-winning pick. Targeting him in Round 6 feels like a must because of it.

The Buffalo Bills eased Cook into their plans throughout the season last year. Devin Singletary was used as the main option for much of the year, but he's gone now, replaced by former New England Patriots running back Damien Harris. Harris could be a problem at the goal line, but truthfully, Josh Allen was doing a fine job at that anyway.

Cook averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his rookie campaign. He also has receiving prowess -- 21 receptions for 180 yards in his handful of opportunities in 2022.

There's little chance that the likes of Harris or Latavius Murray will carve much out from Cook's passing-down role, so that aspect alone sets up Cook for success in a Bills offense that should be among the best in the league. And there's upside for more if Cook ends up getting the lion's share of the carries and/or a lot of red-zone work.

Cook is a 2023 breakout candidate who I love.

Round 7 -- David Montgomery, Lions

ADP: 76

First-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs gets a lot of the publicity when it comes to the Detroit Lions' backfield, but the better value this season is David Montgomery.

A year ago, Jamaal Williams had 262 rushes, 1,066 rushing yards, and 17 rushing touchdowns. Montgomery is likely going to step into Williams' role this year.

Now, this isn't to say that Montgomery is going to rush for 17 touchdowns. But he could push for 200 touches and should have a solid grip on goal-line work. There's a lot of value in that role given how good this Lions offense should be. Detroit scored the fifth-most points in the league in 2022.

Gibbs and Montgomery could be a lethal pairing for the Lions if all goes as Detroit envisions. Both are going to be viable in fantasy, and Montgomery is awfully appealing in Round 7.

Round 8 -- Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders

ADP: 95.7

The Washington Commanders are going to have a better offense this year, and I think that will be due in part to second-year running back Brian Robinson.

What a rookie year it was Robinson. He started the season on injured reserve and was able to get himself back on the field by Week 5, slowly but surely becoming the no-doubt starter for the Commanders.

Robinson showed enough last season that I'm intrigued in Round 8.

In the last seven weeks of the season, Robinson finished with 15 or more carries six times, exceeding 20 total touches in four of those games. The usage was there, and he figures to see plenty of work again in 2023, with Antonio Gibson serving as the third-down/change-of-pace back.

Again, volume is king in fantasy football. It's hard to find reliable volume later in the draft. I think Robinson is an exception.

Round 9 -- Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

ADP: 107.7

If you're playing in half- or full-PPR leagues, Zach Charbonnet is a player you'll want on your team.

All expectations for the Seattle Seahawks this season include them continuing their offensive play from last year and possibly even taking a step forward from that production. Charbonnet can help.

He brings a pass-catching element to the team that should be a good changeup to lead back Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet caught 37 passes in his final season at UCLA while also rushing for 1,359 yards and averaging 7.0 yards per carry.

On top of the pass-game duties, Charbonnet has plenty of three-down potential if Walker were to go down, making him an excellent target for Zero-RB drafters. It's worth noting that Walker dealt with an injury to start his rookie season in 2022 and missed a lot of this preseason due to a groin injury.

Charbonnet might be eased into things behind Walker, but there's a chance for him to see more work as the campaign progresses. He is someone who you may have to be patient with but who can be a league-winner later on. Take him, stash him, and see how his work grows throughout the year.

Round 10 -- Samaje Perine, Broncos

ADP: 112

Sean Payton has taken over as the head coach of the Denver Broncos. The running game has always been a key part of his success as a coach, and that should remain the case in 2023.

Javonte Williams has made his return from injury far sooner than anyone would have expected, but if Payton's track record means anything, Williams won't be the only back worth rostering as Samaje Perine should have a nice role.

At Alvin Kamara's best in the Payton offense, Mark Ingram was a force, as well. Payton can coach up two fantasy-relevant running backs, and Perine figures to see decent volume, especially if Denver opts to ease Williams back the first few games.

Perine's 2022 line included 95 rushes for 394 yards and two touchdowns along with 38 receptions for 287 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He's shown the ability to do it all and can serve as a fine RB3/flex piece as well as a high-upside option if Williams misses time.

With the injuries to the Broncos' pass-catchers this offseason, Perine should have a role with or without Williams on the field. He's worth taking a shot on in Round 10.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.