Fantasy Football: Michael Pittman Is Not a Post-Hype Breakout Candidate This Year

Things looked pretty great for the Indianapolis Colts heading into the 2022 season. The team had ousted former starting quarterback Carson Wentz in favor of 2016 MVP Matt Ryan, had the best running back in the league (Jonathan Taylor) running behind a great offensive line, and had an up-and-coming potential WR1 in Michael Pittman Jr.. The team had playoff aspirations entering the year, but their season ended in massive disappointment.

Cut forward to the 2023 season, things are looking pretty different around Indianapolis this year -- especially at the quarterback position. And while plenty has changed around him, Pittman still finds himself at the top of Indy's wide receiver depth chart. Can the former second-round pick have a true breakout campaign in his fourth NFL season?

Michael Pittman Fantasy Football Projection

All projections via numberFire.com.

2023 Fantasy Points Projection: 169.8 (166.0 in 2022)
numberFire Positional Ranking: WR31
2023 Projected Stats:

• 131.6 targets
• 84.3 receptions
• 991 receiving yards
• 4.9 receiving touchdowns

Michael Pittman Fantasy Football Outlook

Almost Great -- But Not Quite

Pittman entered the league with high expectations as the second pick on Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft. With an aging T.Y. Hilton as the only other productive receiver on that Colts team, it was clear the team intended for Pittman to develop into a true X-receiver for their franchise. Unfortunately for the Colts, that hasn't quite happened for the talented receiver yet -- and it never quite happened at the collegiate level, either.

Pittman didn't play much in his freshman year for the USC Trojans in college. In his sophomore and junior campaigns, he played behind other receivers on his own team. That makes sense with some of those receivers -- like future Detroit Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown -- but looks more concerning when those receivers were players like Tyler Vaughns and Deontay Burnett. He finally broke out as a senior, catching 101 passes for 1,275 yards (12.6 per reception) and 11 touchdowns.

His lack of efficiency as the Trojans' WR1 didn't seem too concerning at the time, but it does look like the start of a trend now that we're three years into Pittman's professional career. Even when he has been his team's top pass-catcher, he doesn't seem to put up too many yards.

In each of his most recent two seasons, we've seen Pittman handle heavy volume in Indy's passing game with 88 receptions in 2021 and 99 receptions in 2022. Those catches do elevate his floor for fantasy in point-per-reception (PPR) fantasy formats, but his lack of efficiency with those targets has resulted in seasons of just 1,082 and 925 receiving yards, respectively, with a total of 10 receiving scores in those seasons. That's just not going to cut it for a player into whom you invest significant fantasy football draft capital.

It hasn't exactly been working out great for the Colts, either. numberFire tracks a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP), which calculates how many expected points a player generates on each play relative to a league-average player. According to their NEP metric, Pittman ranked 61st among all wide receivers with at least 50 targets in NEP per target (0.20) last year. His receptions only added expected points to the Colts' expected total 76.8% of the time, too. That was the 14th-lowest rate in the league. He was absorbing a ton of volume but wasn't doing much with it.

Indy's Fresh Start at Quarterback

After spending the past few seasons in the post-Andrew Luck era trying to eke value out of aging quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers or journeymen like Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz, the Colts finally took the bold step of drafting a quarterback highly in the NFL Draft. They selected the uber-athletic Anthony Richardson of the Florida Gators with the fourth overall pick of the 2023 draft. It's hard to find someone these days who isn't excited about the promising young signal caller; his +800 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award odds rank third in the 2023 draft class.

That said, folks looking for Pittman's receiving production to take the next step might be disappointed with the changing of the guard at quarterback. The Colts aren't likely to throw more often than they did last season; their 604 pass attempts were the eighth-most in the NFL. They could even become one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, and that could spell doom for a wide receiver that relies on volume over efficiency to put up fantasy points.

New Colts head coach and play-caller Shane Steichen helped lead the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl last season, maintaining balanced offenses with Jalen Hurts over the last two years. Hurts took a massive step forward as a passer in 2022 and allowed the team to skew towards the passing game when the situation called for it, but in both years with Hurts, the Eagles leaned heavily on the running game. In Anthony Richardson's rookie season, we can expect Steichen to base his offense off of the running game.

Even if Pittman maintains his strong target share numbers this year, his volume could take a massive hit. So, if he continues to turn targets into yardage at an inefficient clip, his fantasy production will fall off the map. The Colts' wide receiver room isn't looking as sparse as it once did, either, with second-year receiver Alec Pierce back in the picture and 2023 rookie Josh Downs taking first-team reps in the preseason. It's a precarious situation for a player we once had high hopes for in fantasy football.

Takeaways

It's tough to get excited about Michael Pittman this season. He's shown off the ability to earn and handle heavy workloads throughout his developing career, but so far, that hasn't manifested into efficient fantasy football production.

With a change at quarterback and offensive scheme, it's hard to see him earning more volume than he's already seen to this point in his career, and it's even harder to see him becoming efficient enough to produce fantasy points independent of his volume for the first time in his career. His once-dominant target share numbers are even at risk this year with Alec Pierce and Josh Downs vying for looks.

He is the WR31 in numberFire's season-long projections this season, but having the WR31 on your team isn't exactly pushing the needle for your fantasy teams on a week-to-week basis. He's going as the WR32 in fantasy drafts this summer, according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, and is usually taken as a sixth-round pick in most 12-team fantasy leagues.

If your teams are still looking for reliable wide receiver production in that area of your fantasy drafts, consider drafting Diontae Johnson (WR33) on an ascending Pittsburgh Steelers offense or Christian Kirk (WR30) as a top pass-catcher on the Trevor Lawrence-led Jacksonville Jaguars. We're not saying Pittman can't become a top-notch wideout for fantasy football at some point in his career, but we're just not banking on that happening in 2023.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.