Sometimes, the commodity in fantasy football that most wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole is most valuable. We know one player that will fit that description for the rest of his career.

It'd be one thing if a checkered past was the only red flag of Deshaun Watson's NFL career, but since returning from an 11-game suspension to start 2022, he's almost been a poor performer on the field and rarely available. The Cleveland Browns' 230-million-dollar man effectively played just five games last season when not counting an odd, one-pass-attempt start in Indianapolis that was ruled a head injury.

In his prime, Watson was a top-five fantasy quarterback in both 2019 and 2020. You'd love to add someone with that type of upside at the QB23 slot in FanDuel's best-ball drafts with an average draft position of 214.7. Almost certainly, that sort of QB overperformance would win your league.

The question, though, is if that even remotely exists for a signal-caller that has just three games over 20 fantasy points since the start of the 2021 season -- and several other factors working against him.

Is Deshaun Watson a worthwhile late pick and modest second option in Superflex leagues, or is the Browns' QB destined for an exodus from the NFL after another disappointing season?

Deshaun Watson Fantasy Football Outlook

Got the Bag and Took a Seat

We've seen quarterbacks ascend and descend in efficiency throughout their careers between season. The fact that Deshaun Watson hasn't extremely efficient with Cleveland is not alone reason to believe he never can be again, but the largest issue to drafting Watson might be his contract.

In case you missed it, the Browns gave Watson the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL history, allotting $230 million to the quarterback over five years back in 2021. He did restructure that contract to now be a cap hit of nearly $70 million each of the next three seasons. Watson isn't going anywhere any time soon, and the larger problem might be one the NBA has faced with their guaranteed contracts: availability.

The world's largest basketball organization added incentives to ensure players were still staying on the court, but that's not coming to this one player in this unique situation with ink dried on the deal. Watson started just six games in 2023, but he effectively only played five after leaving a game against the Colts after a single attempt. He was medically cleared to return but didn't.

Prior to that incident, news broke that Watson was medically cleared in Week 4 against the Ravens but made a personal decision to not play. Odd. While a legitimate injury, a broken bone in his shoulder, ended Watson's season prior to Week 11, the dark secret of the NFL is that plenty of those "legitimate injuries" are played through and surgically repaired after the season. The Browns' main man was done the week it happened.

To me, this is the largest downside to drafting Watson. Believe it or not, he'll be just 31 years old when this deal expires, so there is some argument to being available to earn a new contract, but those odds are getting slimmer and slimmer by each passing mediocre season amidst plenty of baggage.

There's a chance that Watson has decided this will be his final significant NFL deal, and if that's the case, we could see just a handful of games from him each of the next three years.

Getting By With a Little Help From Friends

Though met with the grim outlook of potentially missing over half the season again, the case for Watson still exists -- and in strong fashion.

Beyond Watson's long-forgotten years with the Houston Texans as a top-five quarterback, we can look at the Cleveland Browns' situation as one that a quarterback could absolutely star. In fact, we saw Joe Flacco nearly nab the Comeback Player of the Year award behind 8.5 yards per attempt (YPA) in four starts.

In addition to two-time Coach of the Year winner Kevin Stefanski calling plays, Cleveland's hierarchy of weapons and protection is loaded. The Browns' offensive line has been their calling card for years, and Pro Football Focus (PFF) believes they're the fourth-best unit entering 2024. That was masked a bit by three season-ending injuries to tackles a year ago.

Out wide, Amari Cooper is an established top wide receiver at this stage of his career, and Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy provide high-upside second options behind him. We don't really know what their ceiling looks like with zero combined seasons of top-15 quarterbacking in terms of expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), per NFL's NextGenStats. For the record, it's still pretty unlikely Watson delivers their first. Then, David Njoku patrols the tight end spot after a breakout season in which he was third at the position in receiving yards over expectation per game (8.4).

In the running game, some combination of a returning Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford should perform to the NFL average at worst even if Ford's rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.14 RYOE/c) weren't ideal a year ago. The Browns added D'Onta Foreman (0.08 RYOE/c in 2023) as an insurance plan in case Ford's efficiency is limited to passing-game work.

The end result of this supporting cast is very few excuses for Watson, which is likely why the Browns made such a desperate attempt to find a guy who could maximize all this talent. He's yet to do it thus far.

The Bottomline Question

If you draft Deshaun Watson in fantasy football at all, you're making the assumption he's going to try and play 17 games. We don't really have any questions about his situation. There's just one major question that needs to be answered to select him. Can he play?

Judging off of last season as a whole, the answer would seem to be no. Watson's -0.20 EPA/db were, without any other context needed, sandwiched between Desmond Ridder (-0.15 EPA/db), Joshua Dobbs (-0.17), and Kenny Pickett (-0.21) among quarterbacks with at least six starts. All three of those guys changed teams in the offseason.

However, there is a human element where Watson's first true return to full-time football player was the 2023 season, and after a rusty start, he played his best three games before his season ended due to injury. The Browns went 3-0 in his final three completed games, and Watson finished as the QB14 or better in fantasy each week. He posted 18.4 fantasy points per game and totaled 0.09 EPA/db during this three-game stretch. Those marks were eighth and sixth, respectively, of the QBs to play all three games in these weeks.

Three games is a microscopic sample to invest heavily into the idea that Watson is "back" to a certain level of quarterbacking that would make his ADP a steal. Yet, I think his ADP largest sits where it does because fantasy football players across the world look at Watson's personal issues in the past, unwillingness to play, and overall season-long metrics to just pass entirely.

That's fair, but it is in the range of outcomes that Watson just began to figure out things in Stefanski's offense and is set for his best season since the start of 2021. Every player's projection should have a breaking point to be drafted, and Watson's might be just a bit too low for most because of who he is.

Deshaun Watson Fantasy Football Projection

The beauty of numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections is that they're entirely free of bias. They simply look at a player's previous production and current situation to make a ruling, and the ruling is that Deshaun Watson might be a value in fantasy football drafts this season.

On the assumption of a healthy, 17-game season for all players, nF has Watson ranked as the QB19 based on a projection of 3,889.8 passing yards, 22.8 passing touchdowns, 12.4 interceptions, 433.5 rushing yards, and 4.1 rushing touchdowns. That all wraps into 276.2 total fantasy points using standard QB scoring.

FanDuel Sportsbook had a much trickier job setting his passing props. To account for injury, oddsmakers have Watson lined as a +5000 longshot to lead the NFL in passing. His passing yards prop is 3,250.5 yards at a pick 'em, and his passing touchdown prop is a pick 'em set at 18.5.

Betting Watson's props is the same conundrum as drafting him in fantasy football. Especially given what we saw in his final three games, if he's going to attempt a 17-game season with a second huge contract in mind, Watson should smash both props in addition to being a steal outside the top-20 fantasy quarterbacks taken in a draft. In home leagues, Watson might slide even further because his past is so tumultuous that casual players understandably don't want to root for him.

However, there's absolutely a path to Watson's season where he's mentally done with the NFL since the money is effectively in the bank, sitting random games and showing the three-game stretch last year was simply a heater in a small sample.

Overall, I'm still looking Watson's way quite a bit in two-QB or Superflex leagues -- or as a high-upside backup in one-QB formats. His ADP has fallen so far that, even if the nonsense continues into 2024, Jameis Winston is now the Browns' established backup quarterback and should provide decent production as a handcuff or addition off the wire. Winston's on-field decision making can be questionable, but he's an established fantasy producer when called upon.

I'd be intrigued by Winston as Cleveland's full-time starter at this ADP, and Watson's upside has proven to be higher. Regardless of who ends up under center more in 2024, I want pieces of this Cleveland offense, which looks to be one of the deepest groups in the NFL with an elite coach, in fantasy football.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.