Fantasy Football: Is Desmond Ridder a Diamond in the Rough?

Despite current public opinion, the late-round fantasy football quarterback will never permanently die.

Truth be told, any player with upside that provides production from a spot late in the draft will always be coveted, but most of the options at the end of the draft have opportunity obstacles.

Whether it's a running back in a crowded backfield, a tight end who doesn't see many targets, or a speedy wideout buried on the depth chart, we're actively selecting guys who aren't expected to contribute right away.

This is true for every position -- except quarterbacks. Starters will be on your waiver wire before Week 1.

The problem is that most late-round quarterbacks are going there for a reason. They're statues that won't use their legs, or they're inefficient passers looking over their shoulders at a potential benching. However, what if there was a quarterback in this area who had known rushing upside, an outstanding supporting cast, and a light schedule whose lone drawback was...a poor start to his career in a very different situation.

That's the reality of Desmond Ridder's 2023 outlook. Ridder is -- from the team owner's mouth -- 100% safe to develop in the Atlanta Falcons' QB1 spot in his second NFL season, but he is being sold quicker than a rapidly ripening melon by the fantasy football community.

Are we passing over a potential diamond in the rough by not leaning into the unknown with him?

Desmond Ridder 2023 Fantasy Football Projection

Projections are via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 212.7 (38.7 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: QB32
2023 Projected Stats:

• 298.4 completions on 477.4 attempts
• 3,085.2 passing yards
• 20.8 passing touchdowns
• 11.1 interceptions
• 46.1 carries
• 206.1 rushing yards
• 2.0 rushing touchdowns

Desmond Ridder Fantasy Football Outlook

Transitioning from being the Cincinnati Bearcats' signal-caller for a quadrennial, Desmond Ridder officially entered the NFL late in 2022 as a rookie, starting the Falcons' last four games.

The results weren't exactly sparkling. Ridder didn't eclipse 10 fantasy points in his first three starts in Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense, but he did flash a QB11 weekly finish in the wild, wild west that is Week 18 with several quarterbacks sitting.

There were plausible circumstances as to why Ridder didn't produce, and we'll need to accept or reject them as possible drawbacks in 2023.

Turning David Into Goliath

In a league fawning over any quarterback with the potential to make a handful of throws that Patrick Mahomes does, it is absolutely stunning that Desmond Ridder didn't get more love as an NFL prospect.

Ridder's college career was ripe with the traits you'd look for in a college quarterback. The Bearcats went 4-8 in 2017 before the freshman arrived to Queen City, and then the program ripped off a 44-6 record in Ridder's four years under center. It was a night-and-day difference when he stepped on campus. After all, Luke Fickell had been running the program since 2016.

In that time, he completed 62.1% of his passes, didn't fall below 2,100 yards passing (even in the COVID-shortened season), and tallied 87 touchdowns to just 28 picks. A collegiate passer rating of 145.8 -- without elite skill personnel for the most part -- will absolutely work.

Even better, Ridder added 2,196 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns across the four years, which is a testament to a dual-threat ability that usually shoots prospects up draft boards.

However, he just never picked up legitimate first-round steam as a prospect. Scouts were concerned about his arm strength; PlayerProfiler and NFL.com's draft profiles liken him to former top pick Alex Smith. As a novice draft evaluator, my official comparison for him at the time was Dak Prescott.

Either way, Smith and Prescott have won multiple playoff games. Prescott's rise to stardom apparently didn't resonate with many draft evaluators as Ridder, who also elevated his small-school program with arm concerns, slipped into the third round in 2022. Atlanta, with their fourth selection of the draft, finally settled on him.

Stage 5: Acceptance

Obviously, the Falcons didn't exactly expect a franchise-changing quarterback given they selected two defensive players between Ridder and Drake London. He probably should have been higher up on the board if they did. In fact, the Falcons never really considered Desmond as an option to start 2022 as the QB1.

Instead, Arthur Smith called upon an old friend from the Tennessee Titans, Marcus Mariota. The only problem is Mariota has proven to be a poor starter at every stop, and in his final 10 weeks for Atlanta, he averaged just 0.01 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per dropback. The league average was 0.08 during this time. Smith -- well after everyone else -- had finally seen enough as the Falcons tumbled out of playoff contention, and he turned to Ridder, who posted an improved 0.03 Passing NEP per dropback in his four starts.

However, the needed context there is that Mariota had a much better situation to pass the ball. Tight end Kyle Pitts was at his disposal for the bulk of his stint, but Pitts went down with a knee injury in Week 12. Ridder never saw the field with Pitts, and it surely hurt him. He was left with just Drake London, and when playing together, London averaged 0.44 NEP per target. That effectively means, due to sacks or targeting other players, any other dropback not aimed at London amassed -0.41 Passing NEP on average. Yikes.

Atlanta has a plan to correct this, though.

Into the Bijan-d

With what is considered a top-10 offensive line by Pro Football Focus, the Falcons have put Ridder in a 2023 situation where excellent, high-level talent surrounds him entirely.

They drafted Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick. While some may see that as steep for a running back, Bijan Robinson is a generational running back prospect. That solidified a security blanket for Ridder with a pass-catcher out of the backfield that wasn't clearly established in his 2022 stint. Cordarrelle Patterson's usage -- which is never consistent -- tanked with Ridder; he wasn't granted a snap share north of 50.0% in any of the rookie's four starts.

Robinson's arrival marked a third straight top-10 pick invested in offensive weaponry and an offensive line that is believed to be a strength of the team. If Ridder can play, it's going to become very apparent this year. There's a chance his supporting cast won't be better the rest of his career than three players -- in their early prime -- projected to be stars at their position.

With comparisons to Alex Smith and Dak Prescott, the vision here is very apparent. The expectation isn't for Ridder to be a playmaker. Rather, he's a facilitator to elite weapons. Now, as we circle back to fantasy football, what value can that have?

Getting a Read on Arthur

With a below-average defensive ranking from most, Atlanta's offense is expected to be pretty solid if an 8.5-game win total on FanDuel Sportsbook is any indication. This isn't a situation like you'll face with Baker Mayfield in this tier of fantasy quarterbacks where his team is expected to be among the league's worst -- and it's mostly his fault.

Atlanta's surging offense isn't really the aspect up for debate in the fantasy community. How they'll get it done is, so I don't want to ignore the elephant in the room.

Atlanta's rush rate over expectation (14.1%) was second-highest in the NFL last season, trailing only the Chicago Bears. That's the common dispute of taking a late-round flier on Ridder. Arthur Smith's offense in Tennessee was always extremely reliant on the ground game, and he's carried that forward to Atlanta.

The problem with that line of thinking? It hasn't actually cost the quarterback at the helm fantasy production:

Smith's offense was actually a godsend for Ryan Tannehill, who had just one top-10 positional finish on a points-per-game basis before Smith became the offensive coordinator for the Titans in 2019. He posted back-to-back ones with him.

While Matt Ryan's statuesque skillset was a nightmare for this rush-first offense, Marcus Mariota even posted a QB17 per-game average last year.

So, the bar for Ridder's skillset to have top-10 fantasy potential is ostensibly Ryan Tannehill, who has similar strengths and weaknesses.

Further, a reasonable bar to pay off what is currently the lowest average draft position (ADP) among starting quarterbacks is...exactly what Marcus Mariota delivered last year on a per-game basis.

A Gift at the End of Your Fantasy Draft

When evaluating Desmond Ridder's situation, a logical conclusion is the most blasphemous consensus quarterback ADP of 2023.

In limited action last year, Ridder proved to be a more effective passer than Marcus Mariota, who still finished as the QB17 on a points-per-game basis for the Falcons. His already-improved efficiency should only blossom with Kyle Pitts back from injury and stud running back Bijan Robinson now in the fold. An improvement over Mariota's production isn't just possible; it's probable.

Ridder's low public perception is likely tied to his draft capital, having been overlooked by several teams in 2022 despite an elite college resumé filled with production as a passer and a rusher. His closest comparisons -- guys like Alex Smith and Dak Prescott -- are previous top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy football despite their limited arm strength, and Desmond showcased in college that he's got the athleticism to match their contributions in both domains.

However, there's also legitimate upside here. Surrounded with stars for playmakers, Ridder and the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the NFL via projected win totals, so there will be plenty of gettable defenses and coaching staffs in front of the second-year quarterback. Plus, Arthur Smith previously molded Ryan Tannehill -- an athletic quarterback with marginal arm talent -- into a top-10 fantasy quarterback while inside the infrastructure of his offense.

Not only should Desmond Ridder be going above quarterbacks like Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam Howell as QBs potentially in line to lose their jobs, but personally, he should be considered as an upside dart over quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith in fantasy football leagues -- especially in superflex formats. Those three are established pocket passers with minimal upside in an offense that -- similarly to Atlanta -- prefers to run the ball.

If everything breaks Ridder's way, a productive season with contributions rushing the ball could be on the way. Even if he struggles early, the franchise publicly and vehemently has been committed to letting him sort it out.

Considering the talent around him, Ridder has already proven the ability to elevate his surroundings to championship-level heights -- even at a small school that never dreamed of a College Football Playoff appearance. Those types of intangibles don't guarantee production and success, but they certainly don't hurt his case.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.