Fantasy Football: How Early Should We Draft Tyreek Hill in 2024?

While Tyreek Hill has been a dynamic fantasy player many years now, he's coming off his best campaign yet after leading the league in both receiving yards (1,799) and receiving touchdowns (13). The yardage was a career high while the TD total was his second-best ever.

Those gaudy numbers would lead to a WR2 finish in half-PPR formats behind only CeeDee Lamb, and on a per-game basis, Hill was actually the higher of the two (19.8 vs. 19.7), per FantasyPros.

Following a season like that, Hill is garnering attention as a top-three pick following only Christian McCaffrey and Lamb in average draft position (ADP).

It's pretty obvious Hill is someone we want in fantasy. However, while CMC is almost universally regarding as the clear top pick in drafts -- assuming his calf issue remains minor -- is there a case for Hill to be the top wideout off the board ahead of Lamb and others? Or, alternatively, should we consider RBs Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson as top-three picks instead? Let's dive in.

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook

Hill's 2023 Season

For starters, it makes sense to review just how dominant Tyreek was in 2023.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards (4,624), taking advantage of head coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme while having Hill and Jaylen Waddle as a lethal one-two punch at wide receiver. Based on the talent of pretty much those two alone, PFF ranks Miami's pass-catching as the league's second-best unit entering this season.

But it's Hill who saw by far the most looks, averaging 10.7 targets per game over his 16 games while soaking up team-highs in target share (32.7%), air yards share (44.3%), red zone target share (35.7%), and end zone target share (35.7%). He would go on to lead all NFL wideouts in yards per route run (3.98) and target rate on his routes (37.8%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Given that Hill missed Week 15 and some of Week 14 with an ankle injury, it's scary to think his final line could've been even more robust with a clean bill of health.

Tyreek has now churned out back-to-back campaigns with 1,700-plus yards under McDaniel, and with mostly minor offseason changes to Miami's offensive personnel, there's no reason to think he can't make it three in a row.

Hill vs. The Field

Hill balled out last season, but how did his outlook compare to his peers?

The wideouts consistently being drafted in the first round are Lamb, Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown. You could argue that any of these guys are capable of finishing with the position's most fantasy points, but the question is whether any of them has an easier path than Hill's.

Jefferson's talent is obvious -- he finished as the overall WR1 with a league-high 1,809 receiving yards in 2022 -- but what's less obvious is his quarterback situation. Sam Darnold and/or rookie J.J. McCarthy will be leading the Minnesota Vikings' offense this season, making Jefferson the only member of this elite wideout group without a stable QB situation. A return to his previous heights is far from guaranteed.

Chase is coming off a somewhat disappointing campaign by his standards after finishing as the WR12, but that had more to do with Joe Burrow dealing with injuries than anything else. While a return to form by Burrow could catapult Chase to another level -- let's not forget he posted 1,455 yards and 13 scores as a rookie -- we have to acknowledge at least some risk with Burrow coming off a wrist injury despite positive reports.

St. Brown continues to rise up the ranks every year and has a firmly established rapport with Jared Goff. But if we're going to nitpick, he averaged just 2.8 downfield targets (10-plus air yards) per game, which was the fewest of anyone in this bunch (Hill averaged 5.3), and he also saw the lowest end zone target share (23.8%). St. Brown's 2.69 yards per route run was below everyone except Chase.

Philly's A.J. Brown is going toward the end of the first round with his ceiling likely limited by a less fruitful passing-game environment. That isn't to say he doesn't bring upside, as he's finished as the WR5 and WR7 the past two seasons, but gunning for the overall crown could be tough. Per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL passing props, Tagovailoa has the 3rd-shortest odds to throw the most regular season passing yards again (+900), whereas Jalen Hurts is just 17th (+3300).

Circling back around, it makes sense why Lamb and Hill are neck and neck as the top-two WRs in drafts. CeeDee is fresh off being the overall WR1, and much like Tyreek, his situation is more or less the same as last year.

Statistically, Lamb led the league in receptions (135) while ranking second behind Hill in receiving yards (1,749) and TDs (12). He posted the fifth-best yards per route run (2.93) among wideouts while averaging 10.6 targets per game with a 30.0% target share, 36.5% air yards share, 29.6% red zone target share, and 32.7% end zone target share.

While Lamb lags slightly behind Hill in some metrics, it's really hard to go wrong with either one as the top wideout. But if we're picking just one, Lamb does have a few advantages.

For one thing, Hill is entering his age-30 season while Lamb is still just 25 years old. There isn't any reason to think Hill has lost a step, but there's no question the Dallas Cowboys wideout is decidedly in his prime.

Then there's Lamb's supporting cast -- or the lack thereof. Hill has a very talented Jaylen Waddle starting alongside him, whereas the Cowboys' No. 2 wideout will be a past-his-prime Brandin Cooks who turns 31 years old in September and tallied just 657 receiving yards last season. Tight end Jake Ferguson is likely to rank second on Dallas in targets again, and he logged a mere 16.9% target share in 2023.

Finally, CeeDee is also tied to arguably the better QB and offensive line. While Tagovailoa did lead the NFL in passing yardage last year, Dak Prescott has the longer track record of success, throwing for 4,000-plus yards and at least 30 touchdowns in the last three seasons he's made at least 16 starts. Establish the Run and PFF both place the Cowboys' o-line inside the top 10, whereas these sites have the Dolphins ranked 30th and 18th.

"Hero-RB" Build?

If we're picking third, we should feel pretty great coming away from our draft with Hill.

But depending on your strategy, it's worth touching on the case for building around Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson as top-three picks.

That's because if anyone else is going to do their best CMC impression, it's probably one of these two.

In the 13 games Hall played over half the snaps, he averaged 15.4 rushes and 6.9 targets per game for 29.3 adjusted opportunities per game, which was higher than McCaffrey's average (27.4). Hall also logged an 82.1% red zone rush share in those contests and averaged 109.6 scrimmage yards per game. Having Aaron Rodgers back in the saddle to run the New York Jets' offense should only further enhance the RB's massive fantasy potential.

Robinson was infamously underutilized by head coach Arthur Smith last year, but that isn't expected to be the case under a new regime, as coach Raheem Morris has already said the plan is to "get the ball to Bijan as much as you can." Even with the disappointing usage as a rookie, the Atlanta Falcons RB averaged 24.1 adjusted opportunities (13.3 carries; 5.4 targets) and 91.3 scrimmage yards over the 16 games he played over 50% of the snaps.

Establish the Run and PFF have both the Jets and Falcons ranked inside the top 10 at offensive line, too.

In today's fantasy landscape, it's becoming harder and harder to find true every-down backs, let alone a pair with such ideal team environments and youth on their side.

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Projection

Checking out FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections, we see Hill is projected for 116.8 receptions, 1,570.9 receiving yards, and 10.7 touchdowns, finishing a hair behind Lamb as the WR2.

According to the NFL receiving props on FanDuel Sportsbook, Hill is the favorite to log the most regular season receiving yards (+600) over Lamb (+800) and Justin Jefferson (+800).

Overall, CeeDee feels like he deserves the slight edge in fantasy over Tyreek, but as the odds suggest, no one would be the least bit surprised if the latter were to finish as the league-leader in receiving yards again.

However, if you're picking second or third the bigger decision might ultimately come down to whether you want to take a swing on Hall or Robinson instead. In our model, Lamb, Robinson, Hall, and Hill are tightly bunched together in projected fantasy points, too.

If nothing else, having a top-five pick -- where you're guaranteed CMC or one of these four guys -- feels like a nice advantage in drafts this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.