Fantasy Football: How Does Drake Maye Alter the Patriots' Outlook?

After a 1-4 start while ranking as the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted offense, the New England Patriots have made a move at quarterback. Drake Maye -- the first-round rookie -- will make his first start in Week 6.

Maye was drafted with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and has attempted only eight passes in the regular season thus far. Jacoby Brissett simply wasn't cutting it, logging 5.2 yards per passing attempt. In hopes of boosting their putrid offense that's averaging 12.4 points per game (second-fewest), the Patriots are moving to the future with Maye under center.

Of course, one of the immediate questions from this move is what does this mean for fantasy football? Does Maye himself hold any value? Will New England's pass-catchers finally be relevant, or will the backfield produce more points going forward? Let's look at how Maye starting impacts fantasy football.

How Maye Impacts the Patriots

Starting with Maye himself, he certainly has more upside than Brissett. The veteran QB held -0.28 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), via NFL's Next Gen Stats. He recorded only one fantasy performance of 10.0+ points over five games, and it wasn't by much with 10.6 points in Week 2. Compared to Brissett, who didn't post one top-20 weekly finish this season, it won't take much for Maye to do better.

The rookie flashed potential in the preseason with a 68.6 Pro Football Focus pass grade over 34 passing attempts in three games. His brief appearance in Week 3 of the regular season also earned a 64.6 pass grade against the New York Jets, who have the NFL's third-best adjusted pass defense. For reference, Brissett posted only a 56.0 pass grade over five starts. Maye clearly holds far more potential as a former top-five selection. Why not roll with the rookie who has already outperformed Brissett in a limited sample size?

Coming out of college, Maye's scouting reports highlighted his arm talent as a strength. While inconsistencies are a concern here, Maye should have the ability to hit far more deep shots than Brissett; the rookie had a knack for pushing the ball downfield in college. Brissett has only a 62.2 passing grade on passing attempts of 20+ yards over five starts, and Maye performed his best on deep shots (20+ yard attempts) in the preseason with a 79.3 pass grade.

The offense has simply failed thus far with only 4.3 yards per play (second-fewest), and this should jump with Maye starting, adding more fantasy upside to New England's pass-catchers. The Patriots had to make a move to find some balance alongside their efficient 4.9 yards per carry (ninth-most), but Maye was considered a raw prospect. This probably won't be perfect as questionable decisions have plagued Maye at times, such as nine interceptions in his final season of collegiate play.

After logging 16 rushing touchdowns over two seasons of starting in college, Maye's legs add to his fantasy potential, as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson's Fantasy Outlook

New England was forced to make this move with a sickening 119.4 passing yards per game (the fewest). Even with some of the bad in Maye's game -- like turnovers -- this number should increase. With more balance in the offense, that equals more scoring opportunities.

The run game has performed well, fueled by Rhamondre Stevenson's team-best 356 rushing yards alongside 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and 0.81 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C). Antonio Gibson has challenged Stevenson thanks an absurd 5.9 yards per rushing attempt and 2.15 RYOE/C. Coach Jerod Mayo claimed Gibson was "under consideration" to start over Stevenson in Week 5, yet Rhamondre had a 47% snap rate -- which was on par with Week 3's 46% rate and Week 4's 55% rate.

After taking over 70% of the snaps in the first two weeks of the season, the ship has sailed for Stevenson to be the workhorse back. But even with his snaps downs, he is still producing some notable fantasy outings, such as 17.2 fantasy points in half-PPR last week (fifth-best among position).

Stevenson has enjoyed a 65.0% red zone rushing attempt share compared to Gibson's 20.0%, leading to three rushing attempts for Rhamondre. Additionally, Stevenson touts nine targets for eight catches over his last two games while Gibson carries five targets for four receptions during the span. Rhamondre has a 14.5% target share over the last two weeks compared to Gibson's 8.1% share.

Overall, Stevenson is still the clear-cut Pats running back for fantasy football. It hasn't led to anything spectacular, though, for he is 23rd in fantasy points per game among tailbacks. So, the question becomes will Maye impact this value at all?

If anything, we could see New England's rush play percentage of 45.1% (15th-highest) dip a little bit. Perhaps this could take a carry or two away from Stevenson, but it shouldn't be anything major. The Patriots are still attempting passes on over 54.0% of their plays; they won't want this too high with a rookie under center.

New England will likely look to push the ball more often downfield, potentially harming Stevenson's target share. But once again, it shouldn't be anything major.

Ultimately, this quarterback change should mostly be positive for the backfield. It can't get much worse with the Pats second-to-last in PPG and yards per play. The potential for improved QB play and a more efficient passing attack could mean more red zone touches and touchdowns for Stevenson.

Will Stevenson become a top-10 fantasy back? Probably not, but he could become a more intriguing play going forward.

Hunter Henry and the Pass-Catchers

By a landslide, the biggest beneficiaries of a QB move is the New England pass-catchers.

This wide receiving corps has been completely irrelevant. Demario Douglas (78th with 5.0 fantasy points per game) and Ja'Lynn Polk (96th with 3.6 fantasy points per game) have been the leaders of the group. Douglas is the only wideout with over 100 receiving yards in the room (153 receiving yards).

Kendrick Bourne just returned in Week 5 from a torn ACL suffered in the 2023 season, but he's still slowly making his way back as he was limited in Wednesday's practice. Bourne is still expected to be the team's top wideout after recording 406 receiving yards in eight games last season. However, it's probably going to be awhile before he's producing as Bourne logged only 16 snaps for a 27% snap rate last week.

The rookie Polk could be the one to keep an eye on here. We highlighted his snap and route rate in our weekly waiver wire targets ahead of Week 6. Polk didn't leave the field last week over 60 snaps, and any wideout playing every single snap is mostly unheard of. This has been a steady increase since Week 3, going from a 50% snap rate to 83% to 100% over the last three games. Clearly, New England likes something about the rookie. Polk leads the receiving room with a 69.5% snap rate and is second in route rate this season (69.2%). He's the most likely receiver to immediately benefit from Maye under center.

We mentioned Maye's ability to throw a deep ball, and Polk holds a PFF receiving grade of 78.4 on targets of 10-19 yards and a 74.3 grade on 20+ yard targets. He produced over 16.0 yards per catch over his final two seasons with the Washington Huskies and posted an outstanding 92.7 receiving grade on 10-19 yard targets during the preseason. With a signal-caller who can finally air the ball out, Polk could start making noise.

K.J. Osborn (68.8% snap rate) and Douglas (63.4% snap rate) are receivers worth keeping tabs on, too.

Tight end Hunter Henry probably has the best shot to immediately increase fantasy production. He leads the team with 180 receiving yards while topping starters with 11.3 yards per catch. Still, the fantasy output hasn't been great at 5.2 fantasy points per game (tied for 18th among tight ends). As they say, tight ends are a QB's security blanket. Maye could use some easy targets to a tight end. Henry also leads the team with a 18.8% target share and 26.3% red zone target share. The efficiency has been there, too, as Henry holds 1.9 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game paired with a 4.7% catch rate over expectation (CROE).

Any tight end who holds good efficiency while leading their team in target share and red zone share -- which is a rarity -- definitely deserves some attention. This season has been a struggle for tight ends; maybe Henry can join the productive list with Maye slinging the rock.

Ultimately, the Patriots are putting a talented quarterback in an offense that is averaging only 119.4 passing yards per game. It should get better in the coming weeks, but this is still one of the weakest receiving corps in football. Henry and Polk are the names to watch, but neither will probably immediately turn into must-plays in season-long fantasy. New England being tied for the 12th-best PFF pass block grade should help Maye, but don't expect this raw rookie to light the league on fire (a la Jayden Daniels).

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