Fantasy Football: Don't Sleep on Rhamondre Stevenson as an RB2

That stench you're looking to pinpoint is the New England Patriots' offense from last season.

It was largely an abyss where all things fantasy football related went to die. numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics pegged New England as the second-worst rushing offense, worst passing offense, and worst overall offense in the NFL. On the bright side, there's nowhere to go but up, right?

The team will certainly try. The Patriots made wholesale changes on their coaching staff, at quarterback, and in the pass-catching room to try and jumpstart a semi-functional operation in 2024. But they're realistically in a rebuild if the NFL win total odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, expecting 4.5 wins (at -150 to the over), are any indication.

As a result, there's a decision to be made with running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Entering his fourth season, Stevenson had some bright spots last year before an injury cut his campaign short, and he's projected for a ton of work on the rebuilding Pats. Given an 13th-to-14th-round average draft position (158.0 ADP) in FanDuel's best-ball drafts, he could be a late-round gem if the Patriots can cobble together a better offense. If they can't, you'll have wished you avoided him altogether.

Should we draft or fade Stevenson in season-long formats this year?

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Football Outlook

A Hidden Breakout

When Stevenson was selected in the fourth round by the Patriots, there was plenty of buzz about the former Oklahoma Sooners back that averaged 6.6 yards per carry in his final college season. On the wrong side of timeshares for goal-line work in his first two seasons, he was finally released into a true featured role in 2023 with only a dusty Ezekiel Elliott on the roster as a backup who had seen at least 50 NFL carries.

Especially considering his offense, Stevenson starred in the final six weeks of his season. From Week 6 to Week 12, he averaged 23.8 adjusted opportunities in New England's backfield and posted 14.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game, which was still down from his expected mark (15.5) in that role thanks to a pair of Elliott vultures at the goal line. From an efficiency perspective, Stevenson posted a tremendous 0.79 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c), per NFL's NextGenStats.

After only catching 18 passes in his final college season, it was also a bit of surprise that Stevenson posted 5.3 targets per game in this stretch, which amounted to a 16.6% share on his team. That was fifth among RBs in this defined period. All of this meant his 2023 ADP of RB11, per FantasyPros, was beginning to pay off in droves until injury struck.

In Week 13, a high ankle sprain ended Stevenson's season, which likely also had to do with the Pats' 2-10 record to that point. Nonetheless, his body of work inside nF's worst schedule-adjusted offense showed that his talent might really be worth watching if New England can just inch toward the back half of the bottom 10. Is that a plausible projection amidst all of their offseason changes?

New Sheriff(s) in Town

While hard to imagine the Pats could be worse on offense in this upcoming season, it may or may not be appropriate to project them to be significantly better.

Although Bill Belichick accomplished perhaps more than any coach in NFL history to win six Super Bowls, it's been a struggle for his teams offensively since Tom Brady left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh McDaniels also bailed at the end of the 2021 season. Without them -- in terms of Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) -- New England had declined to a bottom-eight ranking in both 2022 and 2023.

This offseason, new head coach Jerod Mayo added foundational pieces in terms of the play caller and at quarterback to try and address this trend. Alex Van Pelt, who was the offensive coordinator with Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns each of the last four years, will call plays. Cleveland has been a disaster at quarterback yet has had a top-20 ranking in Offensive NEP three of the last four seasons. More Joe Flacco under center last season likely would have meant a fourth.

Van Pelt's hiring likely had to do with a reliable floor of offensive performance and a consistent running game -- which Patriots fans would absolutely take. After all, Van Pelt was coveted by others before ultimately choosing the Pats.

New England didn't stop there. After shipping Mac Jones following a dismal, 14-turnover season, the team selected Drake Maye third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft as their new franchise quarterback. Maye was a polarizing prospect, yet it's hard to argue with his upside when, in his first season starting in 2022, he put up 8.54 yards per attempt (YPA) with the North Carolina Tar Heels and added 653 rushing yards and 7 rushing scores with his legs.

Maye was the consensus second pick behind Caleb Williams and, when the time came, fell only behind 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels despite an up-and-down third season where he battled through an ankle injury. By all accounts, the Patriots still added an elite prospect that could have been the top pick in several other drafts.

Even more importantly, he is not Mac Jones. Further, this offense is no longer led by some combination platter of Belichick and an unproven coordinator. Both of these facts could result in a Patriots offense that is far more functional if the two mesh well, and part of Stevenson's dramatic drop in ADP this season is accounting for his poor offense. If it's not that poor, he might have a real chance to build on what was already a promising short stretch in 2023.

Is a "Featured" Role Realistic?

New England's potential breakout as an offensive unit behind Van Pelt, Maye, and other improved pass-catchers was the reason I was keen on deep diving Stevenson. If he's a featured back in a functional offense, his ADP is simply way too low. However, "featured back" isn't a slam dunk as this running back room has changed, too.

Zeke Elliott returned to the Dallas Cowboys, which opened the door for a new running mate to Rhamondre. The Pats decided to nab Antonio Gibson from the Washington Commanders, and Gibson is talented enough that it's no foregone conclusion the Patriots will feed Stevenson until he simply needs a breather.

Of all running backs in the NFL, Gibson ranked eighth in receiving yards over expectation per game (7.4). That was one spot ahead of Christian McCaffrey. We've seen him in a three-down role previously, but a pass-catching change of pace role did him wonders alongside Brian Robinson last season. When asked to rush the ball, his -0.03 RYOE/c left a bit to be desired, though.

Interestingly enough, one of the seven backs more efficient catching the ball than Gibson is also on this roster. That was Kevin Harris. Stevenson should be expected to be the best early-down and goal-line rusher of this trio, but New England might be planning to spell him on passing downs.

Stevenson demonstrated an ability to catch the ball and handle a three-down workload last year, so yes, it's disappointing that he may not be in position to accrue those points from catches, yards, and a stray receiving TD or two. Yet, he's also likely to absorb as much goal-line work as possible with just two combined rushing TDs for Gibson and Harris last season.

That overall trade-off still leaves him an excellent spot to score fantasy points this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics were as harsh as any on the Patriots' 2023 offense, so it should speak volumes that its 2024 season-long fantasy football projections love Rhamondre Stevenson at his current ADP in best-ball formats. At FantasyPros' ADP of RB18 in more standard season-long formats, it's a bit dicier.

nF projects Stevenson -- when assuming a healthy, 17-game season for all players -- at 1,070.2 rushing yards, 6.1 rushing touchdowns, 42.2 catches on 58.2 targets, 293.0 receiving yards, and 1.3 receiving touchdowns. That all wraps into 177.7 half-PPR fantasy points as the RB20 and 56th-ranked player overall.

FanDuel Sportsbook's rushing props for 2024 have Stevenson lined at 775.5 rushing yards as a pick 'em. His rushing TD prop is set at 4.5 with -136 odds towards the over. They're baking in a few games missed due to injury, which has to be fair given Stevenson's 2023 campaign just ended prematurely.

Overall, though, it seems to be undersold how elite Stevenson's goal-line role should be on an offense that could be significantly better than last year's league-worst version. Even then, the Pats' tailbacks punched in eight rushing touchdowns, so a line of 4.5 could be a steal that cashes early into the season if Rhamondre stays healthy and Maye -- or Jacoby Brissett -- brings positive momentum to this group under Van Pelt.

The path to New England becoming an elite offense that turns Stevenson into a top-5 or top-10 running back seems far-fetched, but he's a name many are passing on in this RB2 range because of his offense. On FanDuel, James Conner, David Montgomery, and Raheem Mostert are all going well above Stevenson and likely will in your home league, too. However, Stevenson's role to score touchdowns and rack up carries is significantly more entrenched than any of the four, and he was a solid fantasy contributor in all phases last season despite dire circumstances.

Pending health, Rhamondre could be a valuable piece on a fantasy football team if the 2024 Patriots exceed expectations.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.