Fantasy Football: Davante Adams Might Be Stuck in a Black Hole

A sports "fan" -- short for fanatic -- largely isn't to be trusted in fantasy football. It's surprising to precisely no one that you think the best offensive playmaker on your favorite team is due for his biggest year yet.

However, as a longtime supporter of the Las Vegas Raiders, I feel inclined to give my pessimistic take on one of 2023's most polarizing early-round players who just happens to don silver and black.

If you're not paying attention closely, the Raiders seem like a star-studded offense that could absolutely be fantasy viable in many respects. There are some contract issues with Josh Jacobs, but those aren't unique to Las Vegas as the running back market continues to be drier than ambient conditions in Sin City.

There's a far larger reason to be pessimistic about Davante Adams, one of fantasy football's brightest stars in recent years. An organizational shift and plan for the future could leave Adams -- in a prime, age-30 season -- in the midst of a lost year.

Why are the Raiders positioned to take a step back in 2023, and is Adams' elite talent enough to overcome it?

Davante Adams 2023 Fantasy Football Projection

Projections are via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 262.8 (285.5 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: WR6
2023 Projected Stats:

• 179 targets
• 112 receptions
• 1,395 receiving yards
• 10.6 receiving touchdowns

Davante Adams' Fantasy Football Outlook

Since his 2020 campaign with the Green Bay Packers, Adams has been the most consistent receiver in fantasy football.

In half-PPR formats, he was the WR1 in that year, which was followed by a WR3 finish in his 2021 season. That ended up his final year in Green Bay. As Aaron Rodgers' retirement rumors swirled, Adams demanded -- and was granted -- a trade to the Raiders to team up with his college quarterback and fellow second-round pick, Derek Carr.

Carr and Adams picked up right where they left off, lofting Adams into a WR2 season in 2022. However, this offseason, the Raiders made a decision to release Carr to opt out of a large deal -- signed in April 2022 -- that gave them the flexibility to do so.

A Friendship Wounded by Business

Any discourse on Vegas' go-to wideout has to start here -- Adams' outlook would be nearly identical to last year if the Raiders hadn't ditched his quarterback.

In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert regularly taunting them, Las Vegas decided that committing upwards of $40 million per year to Carr was simply too high of a price to pay for his services.

At 0.12 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back last year, Carr was sandwiched efficiency-wise between Sam Darnold and Ryan Tannehill. At a fraction of the cost, those two also saw their 2022 teams move in a potential new direction at quarterback, but Carr's longevity with the Raiders' organization certainly made the decision tougher.

Adams' friendship with Carr also made that decision a difficult one. It was certainly a possibility Adams would immediately demand a trade, but instead, Adams voiced his support for general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels.

He probably did so because, even with average quarterbacking, the Raiders significantly improved in 2022 despite what their record said. Their -23 point differential was significantly better than the 2021 playoff team's point differential (-65) despite Carr taking a step backward. Adams and Jacobs carried an offense without elite quarterback play.

This is all a sizable case against fading Adams in fantasy football, right? If he were disgruntled, then he could request a trade, and his production may suffer from the drama. He's instead seemingly all-in with Vegas in 2023, so why should there be pessimism?

The Unspoken Plan

With that said, there's absolutely no way Adams is entirely satisfied with the quarterback situation as it sits right now.

To replace Carr, the Raiders brought in Jimmy Garoppolo, who should be legally licensed to drive a tank on a U.S. roadway. He's perfect to command one.

Garoppolo, a former Super Bowl participant with more road playoff wins than the aforementioned Mahomes has, is the right type of "name" to bring in to sell a locker room that you're trying.

The problem is there is almost no way it actually works.

Garoppolo has played just 32 games in three seasons, and the durability of the 31-year-old isn't going to get better as he ages behind Pro Football Focus' 19th-ranked offensive line. In fact, Jimmy G still hasn't even passed his physical to officially validate his contract.

It's possible he never steps on the field for the Raiders, or -- in a more likely scenario -- he'll probably get hurt at some point once he finds his way onto it. I'm of the belief that the injury worries are much more of a concern than Garoppolo's play, which also comes with its share of skeptics. Averaging 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back when he was healthy last year, Jimmy G was highly effective in spurts.

Without him, Las Vegas would immediately plummet to the worst quarterback situation in the league. It'll be either veteran Brian Hoyer, who was hurt on his only drive in 2022, or fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell from Purdue at the helm.

To me, it's so clear the Raiders are punting the 2023 season for a better future. It's the only universal explanation for all the confusing offseason decisions, including why Jacobs remains unsigned, why the Raiders spent their first-round selection on Tyree Wilson when boasting a pair of elite edge rushers already, and why they've left such a desolate plan at quarterback.

Ziegler and McDaniels have come to the conclusion that the only way to regularly skirt around Mahomes will be having a guy to match his firepower. With Southern Cal's Caleb Williams being one of the highest-regarded quarterback prospects ever, Raider Nation -- whether they want to or not -- has entered the sweepstakes.

What Does It Mean for Davante?

Obviously, if this hypothesis is true, Adams' fantasy production is in immense jeopardy.

First and foremost, he's missed just three games in this dominant three-year run, and if the Raiders are off to the league-worst start they seem to be aiming for, every soft tissue in Adams' body will require a closer look to potentially sit that week and preserve miles for the future.

Secondarily, Davante's production could and likely will tank in a less efficient offense. That could be related to Vegas' quarterback issues, Jacobs' absence, or -- realistically -- a combination of both.

In Week 16 last year, Adams posted a monstrous effort against the San Francisco 49ers with Jarrett Stidham at the helm, and that seems to have blinded most about a necessary connection to quality quarterbacking.

In that game, Adams hauled in 7 passes for 153 yards and 2 tuddies. However, in the other three games surrounding it to end Las Vegas' season, Davante totaled just 11 catches, 116 yards, and zero scores. As Carr's confidence dipped and the wheels fell off the bus, Adams' fantasy production tanked to total irrelevancy.

That's the concern with what happens when -- not if -- Garoppolo misses time. Though D.J. Moore is far less talented and accomplished than Adams, we saw this play out with Moore last year. Completely independent of his ability, Moore was the WR22 despite playing 17 games and holding a 48.7% share of the Carolina Panthers' total air yards.

If Adams' quarterback situation is indeed the worst in the league after a Garoppolo injury, there's a defined ceiling to which he can produce -- and it's much lower than the elite level at which he's still being selected in fantasy drafts.

Opportunity Cost: Where Is Adams Being Drafted?

Even knowing the backward step his football team is taking, it's somewhat shocking to see that Adams is, on average, going eighth off the board among wideouts in half-PPR drafts, per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data.

In FanDuel's best-ball formats, Adams is also going eighth among wideouts with an ADP of 19.9.

As that shows, the market has already adjusted to a more pessimistic outlook for Adams in 2023. Is that an overreaction to an offseason of turmoil, or should the adjustment actually be larger and drafters are having a hard time passing on such a reliable figure at what seems to be a nice discount?

Personally, I believe it's the latter. Adams' talent is unquestioned, but a huge component of his success in recent years was back-to-back MVP seasons from Rodgers and a meaty target share in 2022 (32.3%) from Derek Carr, who has supported several fantasy-relevant wideouts recently.

Of course, there's a chance Garoppolo stays healthy and Vegas is both a quality offense and a competent team in 2023. I'm not willing to bet on that, though, and even if Jimmy G is able to stay upright for 17 games, Adams might be getting drafted at his absolute ceiling anyway. Plus, according to the NFL win totals on FanDuel Sportsbook, oddsmakers appear to be leaning toward my view, giving the Raiders a lowly win total of 6.5.

If Adams has a rookie or dusty veteran throwing him the ball by Week 5, he'll have an extraordinarily tough time keeping pace with his neighbors in fantasy drafts. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, and Jaylen Waddle should all command target shares north of 25.0% inside of elite offenses.

To me, Adams' 2023 outlook is far closer to that of DeAndre Hopkins, who just recently signed with the Tennessee Titans and has a WR5 season on his resumé as recently as 2020.

Injuries, suspensions, and quarterback disruptions have halted Hopkins' production more recently, but we haven't seen Adams exposed to this for an extended period. Hopkins, though, has some of the same questions in Nashville, including quarterback ambiguity, an offense that would rather hand it to its star tailback, and a team that's win total isn't very high.

No one in their right mind is taking Nuk with a second-round pick at this stage, and that appears to be too lofty of an expectation for Tae, as well.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.