Fantasy Football: CeeDee Lamb Has All the Tools to Repeat as the WR1

CeeDee Lamb is coming off an unworldly performance in the 2023 season, recording career-high marks in all of receptions (135), receiving yards (1,749), and touchdowns (12). Lamb put up the sixth-most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards in a single season in NFL history.

The Dallas Cowboys' superstar wideout finished as the half-PPR WR1 in 2023, delivering in a big way on his WR5 half-PPR average draft position (ADP), per FantasyPros' ADP data. CeeDee won't have this same cushion for value in the upcoming season as his ADP has him as the first wideout selected and the second overall player off the board.

Will Lamb live up to the sky-high expectations in 2024?

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Outlook

Same Scenery in Dallas

Of course, Lamb required heavy, heavy usage to rack up his absurd 2023 numbers, including 181 targets, the most among all wideouts.

In all, he logged an 84.9% snap rate (22nd-most among WRs), 29.9% target rate (4th) and 2.85 yards per team pass attempt (4th), per PlayerProfiler. That 29.9% target share led the Cowboys by a wide margin; Jake Ferguson had the next-highest mark (17.2%).

Not only was the volume there, the efficiency was, too, as Lamb finished with a mark of +3.0 FanDuel points (FDP) per game versus his expected FDP per game, which was the third-highest clip among receivers, according to Brandon Gdula's expected FDP model.

In short, he got big-time usage and was very efficient. That is hard to repeat, although there is some room for growth in Lamb's snap rate.

Perhaps CeeDee's biggest supporting point for his ability to carry his 2023 numbers into 2024 is that not much has changed in Dallas. The Cowboys didn't do much on offense this offseason, failing to really substantially upgrade any position.

The receiving room was one of the Cowboys' interesting decisions. Despite Lamb producing 37.5% of Dallas' receiving yards, they decided to leave the room as is.

Ferguson had a career-best season at tight end, reaching 761 yards. But the options at wideout after Lamb were severely lacking as Brandin Cooks (657 yards), Michael Gallup (418 yards), and Jalen Tolbert (268 yards) all failed to be reliable targets.

Gallup walked in the offseason, leaving the third spot to Tolbert. The third-year wide receiver has drawn praise throughout camp, specifically from Cooks, "Whatever the expectations are for him out there, I'm telling you he's gonna crush it. He's ready. I look forward to him being able to get that opportunity. It's the way that he goes to work."

A huge leap isn't looking likely, though, as numberFire's fantasy football projections have Tolbert ranked as WR99. Cooks, who is firmly on the decline with back-to-back seasons under 700 yards, isn't much better as numberFire's WR52.

Simply put, Dallas really didn't do anything to help take the load off of Lamb, meaning he'll likely be among the league leaders in targets once again.

Unique Role Puts Lamb On Top

One of CeeDee's best attributes over his four-season career has been his ability to constantly improve.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Lamb's receiving grade has been on a never-ending climb, going from 84.6 in 2021 to 87.5 in 2022 to 91.4 last campaign. The impressive numbers just keep going.

Lamb put up a career-best 1.24 avoided tackles per game last season. His target share, rate of five-plus yard receptions per route, yards per route run, and expected points added (EPA) have all improved every year over the last three seasons.

This is where it gets scary. CeeDee is 25 and entering his fifth season. There's still a shot that he could keep improving and that his numbers could take another jump in 2024.

Regression will always be a worry when a wideout erupts like Lamb did in 2023. However, the tools are all present for Lamb to do it again this fall.

Lamb vs. Other Candidates to Be the First WR Taken

Let's compare him to his chief competition to be the first wideout taken. Tyreek Hill (WR2 ADP) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR3 ADP) both have to deal with quality No. 2 targets -- Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins. This isn't a worry for Lamb.

PFF also did a deep dive on receiver utilization, revealing Lamb's role is the best for producing fantasy points. He is the lead X receiver in two receiver sets and the lead slot in three receiver sets. Since 2014, WRs in this role produced a league-best 12.6 PPR points per game while finishing in the top 12 of their position in 21.4% of weekly rankings.

Lamb is currently the prime example of bouncing back and forth from being the lead X and slot in a productive offense.

Dak Prescott provides more comfort thanks to his 88.7 passing grade since entering the league. Dallas has enjoyed consistent quarterbacking as Dak has finished among the top-10 QBs in fantasy in every season in which he's played at least 13 games. Lamb and Prescott have quickly turned into one of the must-get stacks in fantasy.

That kind of QB play is something we can't bank on for Justin Jefferson, the current WR4 by ADP.

Lamb is flourishing in a role that few receivers have while getting little competition for targets and playing alongside one of the NFL's elite QBs. It's a dream situation.

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's projections express the same sentiment -- Lamb is WR1.

His top competition, per numberFire's model, will probably be Hill. Tyreek is projected for only three fewer fantasy points than Lamb and generated a league-best 19.8 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues last season. Hill missing one game while Lamb played in all 17 ended up being a major factor in CeeDee taking the WR1 crown.

Lamb's projected stats of 122 receptions, 184 targets, 1,567 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns are very impressive. His slight increase in targets (181 in 2023) stands out.

This was already perhaps the league's most-worked wideout; is he really in store for even more?

Tony Pollard's departure is worth noting. We know that Lamb didn't get any added help in the receiving corps during the offseason, and Pollard was a quality receiving back who caught 55 targets in 2023.

Lamb has been given rushing attempts here and there, too, thanks to his ability to force missed tackles. There is a chance that he helps make up for some of Pollard's absence via taking some additional short-yardage targets.

Once again, we can also point to Lamb's age. There's a chance he gets better at 25, and his offense could demand even more work from the reigning WR1.

The bottom line? Don't be scared of regression.

Lamb is in an excellent spot to put up silly fantasy numbers once again thanks to a unique role, heavy workload, and consistent QB play. We could be looking at a repeat WR1 performer in fantasy football.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.