There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 8 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 8.

Let's highlight a few names.

Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle

I got ahead of myself last week with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle because of their underlying workloads still being great despite production being down, but if Tua Tagovailoa returns to the lineup for the Miami Dolphins, then the arrow is way, way up for these two.

In two games with Tua, Hill had a 24.7% target share (9.0 per game) for 77.0 yards per game. His average depth of target (aDOT) in this split is 11.6, and he saw 4.0 downfield (10-plus air yards) targets per game and had a 42.9% air yards share.

Waddle actually had just a 12.3% target share for 4.5 targets per game (though 2.5 downfield per game) with 75.0 yards per game.

In 14 games last year with all three active, Hill had a 30.4% target share (10.2 per game) for 110.4 yards. Waddle earned a 21.3% target share (7.1 per game) for 64.5 yards.

This week, the Dolphins are facing a bottom-three adjusted pass defense and are at home. Wind could be up, but so long as Tua suits up, Hill and Waddle should see elite workloads again.

Jalen McMillan

Jalen McMillan should slot into a featured role with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after injuries to Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle).

In Week 7, McMillan drew 8 targets for just 3 catches and 15 yards but had 109 air yards. Of his 8 targets, 5 were at least 10 yards downfield, and he had 2 red zone targets with an end zone target.

McMillan has a lot of room to grow his role (he has been targeted on only 13.9% of his routes; the WR average is 20.0%), and he has already shown an ability to earn downfield targets.

The Bucs are at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are 24th in adjusted pass defense on the year.

Tank Dell

Tank Dell continues to pop in this model, which does tend to be more of a red flag if the production never comes, but this probably isn't the week to bail on him.

There are a few reasons for that.

Dell is back at home in a controlled environment, so he'll be on turf with no wind concerns against the league's 25th-ranked adjusted pass defense.

C.J. Stroud has averaged 195.3 yards per game in open stadiums but 291.1 in other matchups in his career.

In Week 7 outdoors, Dell drew 4 targets (a 21.1% target share) on only 21 routes (a solid-yet-unspectacular 19.0% target-per-route rate). But of those 4 looks, 3 were at least 10 yards downfield, 2 were inside the 20, and 1 was in the end zone. Despite a zero in the fantasy points column, it was a great role once adjusted for the conditions and low volume.

Jerry Jeudy
Cedric Tillman

Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman could be in line with a lot of downfield heaves this week with Jameis Winston starting for the Cleveland Browns.

In Week 7 without Amari Cooper, Jeudy ran all but one route (98.2% route rate -- 55 routes) but earned only 5 targets (4 downfield) with an overall aDOT of 14.9.

Cedric Tillman had 12 targets (5 downfield) and a 10.4-yard aDOT for 81 yards and 124 air yards on an 82.1% route rate.

Although the Browns aren't expected to score much, they face the 29th-ranked adjusted pass defense and should be playing from behind. The Baltimore Ravens also have let up a top-12 aDOT to opposing WRs plus the third-highest catch rate over expectation.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.