Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Week 5)

There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 5 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output leading into Week 5.

Let's highlight a few names.

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk again? Yep. Here's why.

Aiyuk has a matchup with an Arizona Cardinals team that's 29th in adjusted pass defense, via numberFire's metrics, and even with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel back in Week 4, Aiyuk saw 5 targets (a 19.2% target share) on a team-high 83.3% route rate.

Aiyuk has been tackled inside the five twice this season and has five empty end zone targets for seven near-touchdown plays.

Despite that, he's yet to score.

The target volume and routes and leverage are all too good for Aiyuk to be performing at a WR68 points-per-game output.

Jalin Hyatt
Darius Slayton

I'll get Jalin Hyatt out of the way. There are two reasons he's on the list.

Firstly, there's a chance his role improves if Malik Nabers (who has a 38.2% target share in the offense) can't play due to concussion protocol.

Hyatt has run behind Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton in the offense as the only other New York Giants wideout to run a route this season.

Secondly, Hyatt has a 36.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and Nabers would be vacating 5.3 downfield targets per game from the offense.

It's not a traditional (for me) breakout model, but Hyatt could be in line for some heaves without Nabers.

Slayton, though, has had single-game route rates of 75.5%, 86.7%, 77.5%, and 90.2% but hasn't cracked a 15.0% single-game target share. He's the one here who has a safer role and should be in line for additional work -- again, if Nabers can't suit up.

Keenan Allen
D.J. Moore
Rome Odunze

Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze all make the list this week for the Chicago Bears.

With Allen back last week, Moore ran every route with Odunze running 23 of 26 and Allen with 22 of 26. Allen and Odunze had only three targets apiece in a low-volume game, but Moore had six.

This week, Chicago faces the Carolina Panthers' 28th-ranked adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics.

Odunze has three empty end zone targets on the season, and Moore has a pair -- plus an inside-the-five tackle.

With roughly eight targets projected for Allen and around six for Odunze, they're both in line to improve upon their per-game numbers through Week 4.

But Moore, in a revenge game, is the one with the bigger underlying projection -- and the best role of the three.

Romeo Doubs

While Dontayvion Wicks broke out in Week 4, Romeo Doubs is still set up well to have a bit of an eruption himself.

Doubs has led the Green Bay Packers receivers in routes in every single game this season and is averaging 3.0 downfield targets per game.

Also, Doubs has been tackled inside the five twice and has two empty end zone targets. The four combined near-TDs are tied for seventh-most among all WRs.

There's a breakout in the underlying data, and this week, Doubs is in a dome against a bottom-two adjusted pass defense.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.