Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Week 3)

There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 3 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output leading into Week 3.

Let's highlight a few names.

Brandon Aiyuk

Based on just expected FanDuel points versus output or unrealized air yards, Brandon Aiyuk would still be a buy-low option, but when you factor in his projected volume without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey in the offense and a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, he vaults to the top of the breakout leaderboard entering Week 3.

In two games without Samuel last season, Aiyuk had a 25.4% target share and 38.6% air yards share for 7.5 targets per game with 6.0 of them being downfield (10-plus yards). Aiyuk averaged 83.0 yards per game and 2.81 yards per route run in this span.

The Rams are 32nd in adjusted pass defense, via numberFire, and they're letting up 2.32 yards per route run to WRs (via NextGenStats).

Everything points to a big game for Aiyuk.

Chris Olave

We can't gloss over Chris Olave just yet. His New Orleans Saints have been on the right side of two blowouts, and he has seen only 8 targets for 92 yards through two games.

This week, he is indoors (again), at home, and in a high-totaled game against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are allowing the fifth-highest average depth of target (aDOT; 13.3 yards) and seventh-most yards per route run (1.98) to opposing receivers through two games.

Olave was also tackled inside the five twice in Week 2 alone.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Indianapolis Colts are the only team in the league so far to run fewer than 100 offensive plays, as the team's defense (27th, via numberFire) hasn't been able to keep opposing offenses off the field.

Pittman Jr. holds a 30.0% target share albeit in a low-volume offense. That play volume can only go up, meaning a 30.0% target share will yield results soon enough.

Only eight players (including Pittman Jr.) have a 30.0% target share or better through two games.

A matchup against the Chicago Bears isn't ideal, but Pittman Jr. is at home and indoors -- two great factors for a breakout.

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson has totaled just 34 yards through two games on his 12 targets, but air yards alone won't tell the full story here, as his aDOT is just 7.6 yards.

Johnson has averaged 2.0 downfield targets and 1.5 red zone targets per game -- plus 1.0 end zone targets.

He's been targeted on 24.5% of his routes and owns a 60.0% red zone share and a 50.0% end zone share.

The role is there. The quarterback play hasn't been. That could change with the Carolina Panthers starting Andy Dalton in Week 3.

Amari Cooper

Ideally, players aren't on the buy low list week after week -- because it means they're underperforming.

But it's hard not to flag Amari Cooper as an underperformer. No receiver has more unrealized air yards (216) than Cooper, whose 17 targets have led to just 27 yards.

Not only is Cooper seeing downfield work (3.5 downfield targets per game), but he's got a 33.3% red zone target share and a 33.3% end zone target share.

This week, he's at home against the New York Giants, who are allowing a +10.7% catch rate over expectation (CROE) to opposing WRs, the second-highest rate in the league, via NGS.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.