There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 16 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last three games leading into Week 16.

Let's highlight a few names.

Deebo Samuel

Let's try this again.

Deebo Samuel simply should be doing more for our fantasy teams and DFS rosters.

Last week in rainy conditions against the Los Angeles Rams, Samuel had just 16 receiving yards on 3 catches. However, he also saw an 82.4% route rate and 7 targets, a 22.6% target share -- plus 2 carries.

Samuel wound up with a catch rate over expectation (CROE) of -24.2% in that game and -44.9 receiving yards over expectation (RYOE), per NextGenStats.

Since the San Francisco 49ers' Week 9 bye, Samuel has had a 77.7% route rate and a 19.8% target share but a CROE of -11.9% and a RYOE average of -14.8 per game.

This week, Samuel faces the 17th-ranked adjusted pass defense in the league but is outdoors and on the road.

Interestingly, the Dolphins have faced the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) to wideouts this season, and Samuel's downfield role has scaled back, and his aDOT is just 5.1 since the bye. He could see a lot of underneath work in this game.

He's being ranked as a high-end WR4 this week.

Cooper Kupp

There's nowhere to go but up for Cooper Kupp after a 3-target, 0-catch night on Thursday Night Football in the rain in Week 15.

Kupp (22) did run fewer routes in that game than Demarcus Robinson (25) and Puka Nacua (23), but Robinson had just 1 target (Nacua had 8). It was just an uncharacteristic game from a usage standpoint for Kupp.

In Week 14, Kupp had an 8-target game for 92 yards and a touchdown, good for a 26.7% target share.

Since returning in Week 8 alongside Nacua, Kupp has a 25.8% target share and 20.0% red zone share for an average of 63.8 yards on 8.4 targets per game.

Kupp now faces a New York Jets team that is 16th in adjusted pass defense this season. The Jets also are more vulnerable in the slot than out wide, and that's where Kupp runs a heavy majority of his routes.

Wind may be up here, but the Rams are pacing for a healthy implied team total as road favorites.

Kupp is still a solid WR2 by weekly rankings. This is more a reminder that we don't need to avoid him after a letdown in Week 15.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has just two top-12 finishes in half-PPR formats this season, and his post-bye finishes have been WR50, WR21, WR42, and WR57.

He's unlikely to be in playoff starting lineups, but in case he's on the cusp for you, know that there are reasons to like him.

Harrison Jr. just had a 6-target, 32-yard game. But there was a lot of leverage in those targets. Four of them were at least 10 yards downfield, one was a true red zone target, and two were end zone targets.

This week, the Arizona Cardinals face the Carolina Panthers, who are 31st in adjusted pass defense.

Arizona is at home with a high implied team total and is in need of a win.

Since the team's Week 11 bye, Harrison Jr. ranks fourth in the NFL in air yards per game (112.1).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.